PBP: Copa Libertadores 2024

Discussion in 'Brazil' started by Ombak, Feb 5, 2024.

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Who will win the 2024 Libertadores?

Poll closed Apr 5, 2024.
  1. Fluminense

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Palmeiras

    1 vote(s)
    25.0%
  3. Flamengo

    2 vote(s)
    50.0%
  4. Another Brazilian team

    1 vote(s)
    25.0%
  5. Not a Brazilian team

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Flamengo just went up 2 x 0 in the final mins. A one goal lead going to the altitude would have been very risky. But the bad news is that both Pedro and Gabigol went off injured. Looks like both with hamstring injuries.
     
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  2. Ombak

    Ombak Moderator
    Staff Member

    Flamengo
    Apr 19, 1999
    Irvine, CA
    Club:
    Flamengo Rio Janeiro
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Yeah, I said we had to do what Penarol did and score 4 and we did not come close. Fortunately we got that late second goal.

    But as you said, we lost both Pedro and Gabi to hamstring injuries, so it's unlikely they'll be back for the Botafogo match or the Bolivar match at altitude...

    Time for Carlinhos to shine, and for the club to sign someone quickly!

    Hopefully at least one of them is very minor and won't be out for more than a few days.
     
  3. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Fluminense and Grêmio coming down to PKs ...
     
  4. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Grêmio took the initial lead in the PKs but Fluminense came back and are through.
     
  5. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Grêmio's season is basically over. Now they have to save whatever is left in the Brasileirão. At least they will be able to concentrate on not getting relegated.

    Now it's Atlético vs San Lorenzo. They are level on aggregate but I don't expect an upset here.
     
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  6. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Atlético go through with a 1 x 0 win from a 2nd half corner goal. It wasn't easy.
     
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  7. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
  8. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    No Anibal is a big miss. Rocha also starting doesn't give me confidence. It is what it is.
     
  9. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    10 mins in and Botafogo is putting on the pressure. Looks like Abel might be getting exposed today if he doesn't adjust.
     
  10. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Palmeiras 0 x 0 Botafogo - HT

    After 15 mins of Botafogo dominance we got into the game. Many dangerous probing in the box but no real shot on target. Botafogo not even countering which is surprising given how they started. If this pressure continues I'd expect a goal coming.
     
  11. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Looks like game over. Botafogo scored 1 against the run of play and now a second.
     
  12. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    What a crazy ending. The goals just came too late. Can't depend on miracles so many times.

    Brasileirão left.
     
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  13. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    I'm nowhere as familiar with the current roster of your team as you are, but I am left wondering. If Palmeiras scored 3 goals in a few minutes' time, even though the third was disallowed, why didn't Abel make those substitutions far earlier on?

    Mentally, Palmeiras is much stronger than Botafogo. Botafogo may be playing the best soccer in Brazil right now, but it came close to doing what it's become embarrassingly notorious for: choking. Before the third goal was disallowed, I concluded Palmeiras was going to advance via PKs.

    I also wonder. This is the year in which Palmeiras has had the least impressive performance under Abel, and the first time it's been eliminated this early in the Libertadores. Roster changes have happened, and although 2022 would've likely seen your team in the final but for that player getting red-carded vs. Athletico, this year seems like an anomaly. Is it time for a major overhaul or at least for some serious reconsideration of the players whom Abel relies the most on? In any sport, no dynasty lasts indefinitely. In terms of personnel, your team still has much to work with and your team is still a contender in any competition it participates in.

    If my SPFC advances tonight, we face Botafogo, and Botafogo looks like the stronger candidate, and their near-choke last night will serve them as a warning not to let up in stoppage time.
     
  14. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Why we scored 3 goals in the last minutes ? Porque parte do futebol é aleatório.

    There was no real change in tactic that made us score 3 goals. After a disappointing first 15 mins, we controlled the next 85. The first goal came from a set piece, the second from a semi long ball into the box followed by a header to the far post for Rony to score. The third was also just hoofing the ball into the box after sending everybody in there for a Hail Mary. You can't do that at 30 mins into the game when you only need one goal because the risk of conceding on a counter is big. It's just fair match risk management. Also Botafogo obviously would have a tendency to drop back to hold the result after going up 1 and 2 goals...which gives the other team a bigger incentive to take more risks sending players up. There is no magic "we should have done what we did in the last 5 mins in the first 85" in this case ... sometimes there is. But game context matters. Teams also tire out. I think Botafogo tired out a bit.

    I am pretty sure some of the players are "esgotados". But this is pretty much how Abel has always played. Fast paced, direct football with lots of crosses. I don't see much of a change after the 1st year. This is how he won titles ... and this is how he gets knocked out.
     
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  15. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    It definitely has to be unusual for you palmeirenses to see your team out before the quarterfinals. Your team still has a shot at winning the Campeonato Brasileiro, though.
     
  16. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    So two Brazilian teams are by the wayside - precisely because it was inevitable given the draw resulted in two all-Brazil confrontations in the round of 16.

    Grêmio is out, and while it fought bravely to come from behind in Curitiba, it simply didn't have what it took to defeat Fluminense. I'm actually glad about this result, and not because of any animus against Grêmio (I have none), but because it's good to see a defending champion from Brazil not get out that early. Also, Fluminense has been having a terrible year, and while it's still in the zona de rebaixamento in the Campeonato Brasileiro, things have improved since Mano Menezes arrived, with only a few separating Fluminense from the teams right outside the zona de rebaixamento. There's still plenty of time in the league, and I do believe Fluminense will escape being relegated. If Mano's work continues to progress well, Fluminense will give Atlético Mineiro a lot to deal with next month.

    Speaking of Atlético Mineiro, it does appear that the team has hit a difficult phase after kicking butt after Milito arrived. I'm certainly glad Atlético Mineiro eliminated San Lorenzo, but the latter created several chances in the return match. Pre-Mano, I would have pegged Atlético Mineiro as the clear favorite to win this confrontation, but it's not that clear-cut now.

    Flamengo will challenge Bolívar in Andean territory tonight, and Tite, ever the researcher, likely knows that on the last four occasions Bolívar played a mata-mata match in Libertadores play at home, it scored at least two goals three times: 3-0 vs. Nacional in 2000, 2-1 vs. Santos in 2012, and 3-1 vs. Athletico Paranaense in 2023.

    The one exception was when Bolívar tied 1-1 vs. León in 2014, and because of the away goal rule then, the Bolivians advanced.

    Past performance is no guarantor of future results, but the Bolivians do know playing at Hernando Siles grants them a peculiar edge.

    Finally, my São Paulo has a good record against Uruguayan teams in its home venue in Libertadores play: it has only lost once (0-1 vs. Peñarol 40 years ago); every other match was a win, including the two occasions SPFC hosted Nacional in the mata-mata: 2-0 in 2008 and 2-0 in 1992, both in the round of 16. Let's hope SPFC continues this superiority over Nacional.
     
  17. Ombak

    Ombak Moderator
    Staff Member

    Flamengo
    Apr 19, 1999
    Irvine, CA
    Club:
    Flamengo Rio Janeiro
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    #142 Ombak, Aug 22, 2024
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2024
    Ufa. Phew.

    Flamengo hung on. Same scoreline as against Palmeiras in the Copa do Brasil. 2x0 at home, hung on for 1x0 loss away, but qualified.

    Have to hope that the Bragantino match this weekend will be some small reprieve. Bahia (Copa do Brasil) won't be easy, but then there's a break for international matches. Of course, we could lose some players to the selecao. Aside from that break, the schedule remains taxing until the quarter-finals. Flamengo gets Penarol.

    Glad to see Sao Paulo get through too, meaning all the Brazilians who faced non-Brazilians won. Sao Paulo gets to face Botafogo. The winners of these two quarters will face each other in the semis.

    On the other side it's Fluminense x Atletico-MG and the only match-up without Brazilians: River x Colo-Colo. I can see River making the final there. I hope whoever wins between Atletico-MG and Flu can take them down though.
     
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  18. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Yep. That was a struggle.
     
  19. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Tite with some health problems yesterday. Not sure if it's really due to altitude or just stress related.

     
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  20. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Fluminense beat Atletico today 1 x 0 in the 1st leg. Atletico is probably the biggest disappointment of the season. Not sure what's up with them as on paper they should have a pretty competitive team.

    Botafogo and São Paulo are drawn at 0 x 0 at HT but it has been all Botafogo so far. It's gonna be a fail if they don't leave with a win.
     
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  21. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Botafogo seems to have tired a bit and are making some mistakes / dangerous turnovers ... São Paulo with some chances to steal the game. Calleri just missed an incredible chance from a great cross.
     
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  22. Ombak

    Ombak Moderator
    Staff Member

    Flamengo
    Apr 19, 1999
    Irvine, CA
    Club:
    Flamengo Rio Janeiro
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Sao Paulo got the draw. 0x0 in Rio.

    Botafogo still have to be favorites in the return match in Sao Paulo, but that's a big step towards the upset for Sao Paulo.
     
  23. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Game ended in 0 x 0 but it was a pretty enjoyable game. Botafogo did I really good job in getting Almada. Really good player.
     
  24. celito

    celito Moderator
    Staff Member

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    From a Brasileirão perspective I am a bit ticked off Botafogo play Fluminense on the weekend. Would rather them play a team that wouldn't probably be resting players. Ugh ...

    Although Fluminense needs to worry about relegation.
     
  25. Ombak

    Ombak Moderator
    Staff Member

    Flamengo
    Apr 19, 1999
    Irvine, CA
    Club:
    Flamengo Rio Janeiro
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Flamengo lost to Penarol 1x0 at the Maracana and were lucky not to have a penalty called that could have made it 2x0.

    Just painful to watch. Between all the injuries and the crazy number of matches I don't think anyone there quite knows how to manage the load on players. There is so much quality on the team but they can't string passes together or get to loose balls first.

    And of course there is little imagination, it's all predictable.

    Would take a serious change in form to turn this around next week.
     

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