Libertadores 2024 begins tomorrow. (Tradtional prediction contest is up in the CONMEBOL forum: El mas sabio Libertadores) No Brazilian teams in the first preliminary round. I will sticky this thread for the group stage, which starts in April. Before then, RB Bragantino and Botafogo will have to play the second and third preliminary rounds to qualify for the group stage. RB Bragantino plays a Colombian team, Aguilas Doradas, on Feb 20 and 27. Botafogo plays the winner of Melgar (Peru) and Aurora (Bolivia) on Feb 21 and 28. Both Brazilian teams play the second match at home. If they qualify, the then play the third preliminary round in March. The group draw will follow (date TBD) and 6 Brazilian teams are qualified directly in the group stage: Fluminense, Palmeiras, Flamengo, Grêmio, São Paulo in Pot 1 (cabeças-de-chave) Atlético-MG in pot 2 - meaning they cannot face a Brazilian from Pot 1! Teams from the qualifying rounds will be in Pot 4. With Fluminense's win, Brazil is the first country to take 6 Libertadores in a row (2019 to 2024). All signs point to another Brazilian win, but who will it be? Or will River or anyone else break this streak?
Distribution of teams: Pot 1: Fluminense Palmeiras River Plate Flamengo Grêmio Peñarol São Paulo LDU Quito Pot 2: Atlético Mineiro Independiente del Valle Libertad Cerro Porteño Estudiantes Barcelona Bolívar Junior Pot 3: San Lorenzo The Strongest Universitario Deportivo Táchira Rosario Central Alianza Lima Millonarios Talleres Pot 4: Caracas Liverpool Huachipato Cobresal Preliminary Round Winners (4)
I have to say, most draws for Brazilian teams in Pot 1 are likely to be very winnable. Probably want to avoid the juice (IDV) in Pot 2 just because of their success against Brazilian teams. After that, teams will hope to avoid teams in altitude. But as for specific teams, maybe an Estudiantes or other Argentinian team could complicate things. And you would prefer not to have the other Brazilian team in your group just to avoid a complicated match. We'll see how Flamengo manages to screw up their group or if under Tite that doesn't happen. And how Palmeiras dominates theirs and if they get screwed by the draw again.
One thing I missed about the preliminary rounds: If Botafogo and Bragantino win their second round match-ups, they will face each other in the 3rd round. Only one Brazilian team can make it to pot 4.
5, but 5 was still unprecedented. As for predictions, I see Flamengo, Fluminense, and Palmeiras as the strongest from Brazil. Flamengo will not have a repeat of last year's debacle; it may not win the tournament and it may even be eliminated early in the mata-mata, but even if that occurs, it won't be because the team won't try. One word sets this Flamengo apart from last year's: Tite. Fluminense still has the core of last year's team intact and Diniz probably has a bit of a chip on his shoulder after the way CBF (very unfairly) treated him; if he wins the Libertadores for a second straight time, it'll solidify his credentials as a manager and make him one of the (not very many) managers who has won back-to-back Libertadores tournaments. Palmeiras needs no introduction. If Tite's direction is almost guaranteed to make Flamengo a force to be reckoned with on the continental stage, Abel's work has already taken Palmeiras to the pinnacle of CONMEBOL play - twice. I admit I'm not very familiar with Palmeiras' off-season roster moves, but if Dudu, who was injured for much of 2023, can come back this year and return to playing at the level he has become known for, Palmeiras will be the team to beat - although the Supercopa demonstrated that Palmeiras seriously needs to work on PK shootouts. SPFC is back, and I'm very excited, but as of right now, I still think we are climbing up the ladder and that SPFC is not yet among this clube seleto of title contenders. Dorival Jr. still being with the team would probably make the team more of a contender, but he's gone and we SPFC fans have to accept Carpini's work. Thankfully, SPFC has shown promising signs under him already.
Aurora won the first match, last week, and drew today. So Botafogo will face Aurora in the second round of preliminary matches. Aurora is in Cochabamba. Not as high as La Paz, but still 2,500m above sea level.
Brazil's first Libertadores matches are this week. Bragantino goes to Colombia to face Aguilas tonight. Botafogo goes to Bolivia to face Aurora tomorrow. Bragantino have some relatively easy Paulista matches coming up, and a tough one against Santos. They should be able to focus on Libertadores and still advance in the Paulistão. Meanwhile Botafogo have two matches left in the Carioca. This weekend is an easy match, but they are outside of the qualifying places. They'll want a good result away so they can focus on the carioca next week and have a chance of advancing.
Aurora ties Botafogo .... wait for it .... in the 96th minute. 1 x 1 - FT The cruelty to the Botafogo fans continues into 2024.
Aurora 1 x 1 Botafogo. Botafogo missed a PK (Tiquinho's shot was saved), but went ahead 1x0. Aurora had a goal disallowed shortly before half-time. Both coaches were sent off near 45 minutes of the second half. Aurora tied the match at 51mins of the second half! Return match is in Rio next week.
Didn't open a thread for this, so I'll just put it here. Recopa Sulamericana was tonight (first leg). Flu went to Quito and lost 1x0 to a 91st minute goal. LDU reportedly the better team. Marcelo left injured on 13 minutes. The second leg is next Thursday at the Maracanã.
Bragantino 0x0 Aguilas Doradas Bragantino advanced on penalties, 4x3 Botafogo play tomorrow and if they advance they will face Bragantino.
Botafogo scored 3 in the first half and are up 5x0 now with 10 minutes left. Safe to say they will advance and the 3rd round matchup will be between the Brazilian teams. Botafogo play at home next week and Bragantino will be the home team for the final leg, a week later.
Fluminense won the second leg 2x0 and win the Recopa. Both goals came late, 31 mins into the second half and then a PK committed at 41 mins and taken at 44. In between the goals John Kennedy got a red card for a pisão. After the goal another Fluminense player, already subbed off, was red carded and the LDU coach was red carded, and Fluminense held on. Big win, considering LDU is a bicho-papão for Brazilian clubs. Who knows, maybe a Brazilian club will even beat Del Valle this year!
Botafogo x Bragantino first leg is in progress. 1x1 at the half. Botafogo scored at 44 and Bragantino at 46. Next week's deciding match is in Bragança.
Botafogo qualified today, with a 1x1 draw at home. Botafogo scored first (30mins, second half) and Bragantino scored 10 mins later. Looks like Botafogo had a player sent off 5 minutes into the second half, so they made it despite playing with 10 men. Botafogo will be in Pot 4 for the Libertadores, while Bragantino will play the Sulamericana. Also qualified to the Libertadores this week are Palestino (Chile) and Colo-Colo (Chile). Tomorrow's match between Nacional (Uruguay) and Always Ready (Bolivia) will decide the last spot. The draw for the group stage will be on Monday, March 18 and the first matches will be April 2, 3 and 4. EDIT: Fixed the order of the goals.
Final pots for the Libertadores: Pot 1: Fluminense Palmeiras River Plate Flamengo Grêmio Peñarol São Paulo LDU Quito Pot 2: Atlético Mineiro Independiente del Valle Libertad Cerro Porteño Estudiantes Barcelona Bolívar Junior de Barranquilla Pot 3: San Lorenzo The Strongest Universitario Deportivo Táchira Rosario Central Alianza Lima Millonarios Talleres Pot 4: Caracas Liverpool Huachipato Cobresal Botafogo Palestino Nacional (Uruguay) Colo-Colo
Final pots for the Sulamericana: Pot 1: Boca Juniors Athletico Paranaense Internacional Racing Corinthians Defensa y Justicia Cruzeiro Lanús Pot 2: Fortaleza Argentinos Juniors Independiente Medellín Delfín Unión La Calera Danubio Metropolitanos Coquimbo Unido Pot 3: Universidad Católica Universidad César Vallejo Sportivo Luqueño Cuiabá Nacional Potosí Belgrano Racing Sportivo Ameliano Pot 4: Real Tomayapo Alianza Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Bragantino Nacional (Paraguay) Always Ready Sportivo Trinidense
Libertadores draw will be at 8pm local time tomorrow. That's 7pm Eastern, 4 Pacific for those of us in the USA. Globo Esporte will cover it online, as well as other outlets (probably TNT for example), so there should be plenty of streaming options. In the meantime, here's a draw simulator: https://interativos.ge.globo.com/fu...ial/simulador-do-sorteio-da-libertadores-2024 Remember: Teams from the same country cannot be in the same group EXCEPT, teams from the qualifying rounds (like Botafogo). Those teams can fall into any group. In the first one I did Fluminense got Del Valle and Botafogo! On the lucky side, no Brazilian team had to go to Bolivia!
Live coverage starting soon (stream begins 30 mins before the event, and keep in mind that the event will probably have a lot of preliminary fluff before they even get to the draw for the Sulamericana, after which they will get to the Libertadores draw).