We should not expect soccer to consistently outdraw American football, at least post-season games. I'd be more than happy if Copa duplicates the World Cup feat of having many matches with higher ratings than the NBA Finals and World Series. Follow that up with hopefully a Confederations Cup in 2017 and it would finally doom the "US cares about soccer once every four years" meme. What's more apparent to me this time amongst casual fans is it seems with our young talent and potential that many people have been left wanting more.
Mexico and the U.S. automatically qualify. Winners of Copa Centroamericana in September 2014. Winners of Caribbean Cup in November 2014. Two playoff winners among the 4 highest finishers in the July 2015 Gold Cup not already qualified. So since you'd expect Mexico, the U.S., the winners of the Copa Centroamericana, and probably the winners of the Caribbean Cup to make the quarterfinals, in such a case it'd be the other 4 teams that make the quarterfinals.
I know that, what I'm curious about is if the last 2 qualifiers will be determined during the Gold Cup or at a later playoff
Actually, the defending Caribbean champions have made the Gold Cup quarterfinals only once in the last four tournaments (Jamaica in 2011). Later playoff. The top four "not already qualified" teams from the Gold Cup will be paired up 1 v. 4, 2 v. 3 for a one-off game to decide the last Copa América qualifiers.
My question is this - why not keep the Gold Cup and the old Copa America but run a Pan-Am Cup against the Euros every four years? Drop the invitees from the Copa America. Play the Copa America and Gold Cup in 2019. Take the top 8 from each and play the Pan-American Cup in 2020 in Brazil. Rotate it back and forth between CONCACAF and CONMEBOL. Mexico could host in 2024; Argentina in 2028; Canada in 2032, and so on. No direct competition with the Euros if the games are played at night. Don't make anybody give up their traditional tournaments; but make this a big tourney separate from the pre-existing ones.
We in CONCACAF could get away with it, but European clubs would collectively lose their minds if CONMEBOL teams (and all their Euro-stars) played two tournaments + their 18-game qualifying league every WC cycle. In fact, said clubs forced CONMEBOL to switch the Copa América from a biennial to a quadrennial tournament in 2001 as part of a compromise to allow them to keep their qualifying format. I should correct myself: just last time, Cuba also made it to the quarterfinals (by the skin of their teeth, but it still counts). Before them, Haiti in 2007 and Jamaica in 2009 crashed out in the group stage.
The European clubs certainly would not like it, but I'm not sure they would prohibit it. After all, with the new pro/rel national team leagues in UEFA and Euros expansion, most UEFA sides will be playing 14 or so meaningful games a year. I feel like if it were something CONMEBOL and the CFU really wanted, then it would be doable. Copa America and the Gold Cup have been interesting tournaments; meaningful for their participants, but not really monetized to their full potential. Money solves a lot of issues.
20-30-day tournament summer after summer - it would be too much for us fans, not to mention players and their clubs. 2014 World Cup 2015 Copa America - Gold Cup 2016 Copa (pan)America 2017 Confederations Cup - Gold Cup 2018 World Cup ... It is first crazy, second impossible and, third and most important, won't happen. P.S. Something similar might work if they create new competition, Copa Panamerica, but Gold Cup and Copa America became four-team tournament played in final4 format in September window every four years, just to get "symbolic" continental champions and Confederation Cup representatives. And we all know it won't.
The second Gold Cup of the cycle is already an also-ran tournament, as is, to be honest, the Confederations Cup. It exists to test host country infrastructure, not to constitute a major tournament. Eliminate the 2nd Gold Cup and play the Copa Centroamerica and Caribbean Cup that summer instead (instead of September as we're doing this year); you can play those in the US along with a couple of Mexico friendlies in that summer to keep the money coming in for CONCACAF at the same level. Let the better sides focus on World Cup qualification that summer unless they are in the Confederations Cup. A Pan-American Cup every four years while eliminating the 2nd Gold Cup makes financial sense. If this thing in 2016 works out like I think it might, I think we'll see it become a regular occurrence. I'm proposing a way to do it without destroying the Copa America. I'd be fine with eliminating the Gold Cup altogether but CONCACAF needs money. Having summer tournaments 2 years in a row, or even 4 years in a row, isn't a huge deal. We already force sometimes to play in 3 consecutive tournaments in the years preceding the World Cup (qualification, Gold Cup, and Confederations). It'd be a 24 day tournament, with the winner playing 6 games over that period. More than doable.
We'll have to wait and see whether those national-team leagues get classified as continental qualifiers or friendly matches. Nevertheless, what European NTs do really does not affect their clubs' position on the South American calendar, namely, on all the trans-Atlantic flights (and transcontinental ones within South America) that their players have to make for these games. I mean, this last World Cup gave Europeans a taste of just how draining conditions are here. Back in 2001, the clubs were ready to bring pressure on FIFA to get CONMEBOL's 18-game WCQ "league" cut down, and the compromise that they reached with CONMEBOL was that the league stays, with only one Copa América every WC cycle. Eugenio Figueredo and co. can get away with the Centenario because, well, it's a Centenario, but trying to have two Copa América tournaments in the 2022 World Cup cycle would spark the kind of club-vs-country power struggle that FIFA would much rather avoid at all costs. For the time being, we in CONCACAF can have our 16-game WCQ format (up to 22 games for teams that start in the first round and make the Hex) with two Gold Cups because we don't matter to European superclubs. However, the day Mexico yanks starters from Chelsea, Bayern, Real Madrid, Barcelona and Juventus for their continental tournament squad, we'll feel the heat as well.
I was not aware of the 2001 struggle although that makes sense. I still think money talks with this. It will be a bummer if the Centenario doesn't get FIFA approval and I think the money will mean that it does. However, I think it's win/win. If it doesn't get approved, it's a fun friendly tournament; in which case, the focus shifts to the Gold Cup next year which should be among the best ever (and I thought 2011 was fun as heck absent the final). At the very least, the USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, and, to a lesser extent, Panama will all come in with something to prove. Heck, Honduras will also come in looking to prove that they don't send a team of UFC rejects to every international tournament. Don't get me wrong - watching our B-team win was fun last year but this will be a big chance for some CONCACAF teams to really show out. It's going to be fascinating to watch. If Centenario gets approved, then it's the biggest soccer event in North America since 1994 (sorry, ladies). If it really, really blows up like I think it could, I just think that the clubs are going to have a hard time fighting it. I also think the FIFA politics will be interesting to watch. Do AFC and CAF really want to see UEFA start meddling with their tournament structures (winter tourneys are not great for UEFA sides)? It would be a bad precedent for them. UEFA has a lot of votes, but not that many. Maybe even Sepp Blatter uses it as a wedge issue ("Self-determination for the confederations so long as the pocketses remain lined!")
I'm not even going to pretend to know which way FIFA will lean on that issue; but my point is that after 2018, there's no way CONMEBOL could run a Copa América and a Pan-Am Cup in the same WC cycle. Our best hope is that this tournament becomes a major success, and CONMEBOL keeps on inviting six CONCACAF teams for future Copa América tournaments (starting with 2019 in Brazil).
I see that as the worst possible outcome from a fan's perspective, unless the CONCACAF teams get FIFA approval to send full squads. If that happens, we'll be in the netherworld of not having a best-on-best CONCACAF championship (because Mexico, Costa Rica is going to devote considerable resources to the Copa America even if they can't send the full 23) or a true Pan-Am Cup.
Then you're playing the Gold Cup two years in a row, unless CONCACAF is willing to abandon the 2 Gold Cups per cycle idea, which they should.
CONCACAF seems too greedy to give up the two Gold Cup system. Hence instead of getting rid of it they decided to make both "mean something" when pertaining to the Confederations Cup. Unfortunately no matter how successful 2016 will be, I don't believe the Copa will expand to 16 on a permanent basis. The success in the stands in the USA could not really be emulated in Brazil or anywhere else.
That would be the idea (again, in the best of all worlds). True, but the question is if the success on TV can be emulated. If so, there may be enough pie to go around for CONMEBOL to settle for the lion's share of revenue from one 16-team Copa América every World Cup cycle, and CONCACAF to go with one Gold Cup plus some change and plenty of top-level experience from Copa América participation.
Can't they just get rid of the damn Gold Cup altogether, or have it played a week after the Copa America between that tournament's two best-placed CONCACAF teams? What we need in the US is something like the euro tournament that can scratch the World Cup itch for us halfway through the World Cup cycle. Then the sport will really take off here
Yes that would be something like this 2016 tournament. Conmebol and Concacaf need to work together more
The problem for this Panamerican cup is that Conmebol's big money maker is not Copa America, it has never been, it's that monstruosity of a WC qualifier. That's why they were willing to give up the 2 Copas per WC cycle, but don't touch my qualifiers, which now you can even watch on US cable, that didn't happen before, it was either ppv or go to a bar. There is a history in Conmebol of special Copa Americas, they were called "Campeonato Sudamericano Extraordinario", that were organized to celebrate a particular event or give some crumbs to a friend, but the main tourney always remained the most important one, and the one that countries sent their best players to. I'm originally from Ecuador. We organized the real Copa America (or Sudamericano back then) in 1947, Argentina won, which had in its squad Alfredo DiStefano, alongside other legends like Pedernera, Loustau, Boye and El Charro Moreno. I guess that was one of the few official tournaments that DiStefano played for Argentina. Later on, we organized the 1959 "Extraordinario", Uruguay won. Brazil, which a year before had won its first World Cup finished third. Pele and the rest of the '58 champions were nowhere to be found. I don't see this Panamerican cup becoming a regular thing. Conmebol is very protective of its brand and the control it has over the money it generates. Expect to see u23 teams in this US tourney at best. Still, it will be fun to watch, just don't expect to see the Messis and the Neymars of the world.
I think the idea is to make this Copa America a moneymaker for CONMEBOL. If Messi, Neymar, etc., participate in this tournament, my guess is that the US TV rights alone will be higher than the total tv rights for the 2013 Copa America. Both CONCACAF and CONMEBOL have long qualification processes that their members rely on for revenue as well as competition; there is no reason this could not be worked around. With U-23 players and no stars, you are going to see decent crowds for Brazil and Argentina in half-filled NFL stadiums; if everybody brings their best team, you are going to see NFL-sized crowds at NFL-sized prices. There is no reason the Centenario could not be worth $400 M or even $500 M between TV rights and ticket sales. $100M in ticket sales alone is not out of the question. The rights for the 2018/2022 World Cups were worth $600M a piece in the US. This tournament, at full strength, should get at least half of that, especially with ESPN and Univision not able to broadcast the next two World Cups. Nobody in the Americas has a cash cow like that right now. It could be a game changer for confederations in North and South America.
There was no Copa America in 2013. Also, I doubt all "A" teams will be in the Centenario. Chile 2015 is the Copa America most Federations down south will be focused upon. So we have to wait and see what happens.
Assuming the CONMEBOL keeps their marathon qualification fixtures there would be a conflict in the summer of 2016. Teams would rather focus on their WCQs and may not want those star players to play in a Copa America.