Well if the US finish 4th in qualifying we'd get a chance to qualify via a tie with an Asian team. My guess is that this place should and will be won by a Concacaf team. This year it would have been Honduras vs Iran. My guess is that it would have been determined by away goals. If you take Japan and South Korea out as the two top teams in Asia that would leave China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and some other team (UAE have made a recent cup even!). I think Iran and the Saudis could give a Concacaf team a tough run, but China or anybody else from the region will likely be eliminated. It almost makes me wish the World Cup was every two years. I can't wait for qualifying to start up again.
Does anybody know what CONCAF's record is against Asia? These are the US results against Asia, going back to 1992: US 1-1 SK -- 2002 World Cup US 2-1 SK -- 2002 Gold Cup US 0-1 SK -- 2001 Friendly US 2-1 China -- 2001 Friendly US 1-1 Iran -- 2000 Friendly US 2-0 Saudi Arabia -- 1999 Friendly US 1-2 Iran -- 1998 World Cup US 2-0 Kuwait -- 1998 Friendly US 1-2 China -- 1997 Friendly US 1-1 China -- 1997 Friendly US 4-3 Saudi Arabia -- 1995 Friendly US 1-1 SK -- 1994 Friendly US 1-2 Saudi Arabia -- 1994 Friendly US 1-3 Japan -- 1993 Friendly US 2-0 Saudi Arabia -- 1993 Friendly US 5-0 China -- 1992 Friendly US 0-3 Saudi Arabia -- 1992 Friendly 17 games played. 7 Wins. 6 Losses. 4 Ties.
I know Iran's record only. It is as follows: Iran 0 Canada 1 (2001 friendly in Egypt) Iran 1 USA 1 (2000 friendly in Pasadena) Iran 1 Mexico 2 (2000 friendly in Oakland) Iran 2 Guatemala 2 (1999 friendly in Canada) Iran 1 Canada 0 (1999 friendly in Canada) Iran 2 USA 1 (1998 World Cup) Iran 1 Jamaica 0 (1998 friendly in Tehran) Iran 1 Canada 0 (1997 friendly in Canada). In other words: 8 Games Played; 4 wins for Iran; 2 losses, 2 draws.
Notice that in the Arena era we are 3 wins, 1 loss, and 2 ties against Asia and only one of those games was against a team that didn't make the Cup in 02 but that team was in their half slot so basically against their 4.5 we did pretty darn well. Its hard to imagine the US not being able to get past the 5th place Asian team.
You are predicting a concacaf win over Asia without knowing who the teams will be, what players will he healthy, eligible, in form, ...where and when the games will be played?? Can you tell me the lottery numbers for tonight??
One thing you can predict with relative ease is that Japan and S. Korea will be shoe-ins for the next tournament. Their footie is just so much better than the next level in Asia (with perhaps the exception of Iran on given years). That said, your 4th place finisher will most likely be China, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait or Saudi Arabia. My point...let's hope the Yanks never finish 4th in TFC qualifying. I mean, outside of China that away game is gonna be hell for security detail. Maybe FIFA would put the game in Taiwan or Diego Garcia.
Seriously, can you imagine the atmosphere in Tehran or Bagdad or Rihad should the US have to go there to get a result for a place at the WC. My god, it would take some serious balls to get that job done. I would hope they would have a chopper outside the staduim to gets to boys out of town quick should they win. I don't imagine the US would be in that position, but crazier things have happened.
OTHERS TOO Not to mention potential games in Afghanastan, Pakistan, Lebanon, Syria or Vietnam. Besides security concerns the game would have political overtones. I know, politics has nothing to do with sports. Some of these potential sites would make the chance of a USA/Cuba match-up during CONCACAF qualification seem tame.
Re: OTHERS TOO Yes. However, I think most people on this thread are talking about realistic opponents for the US. There's no way Afghanistan, Pakistan or Vietnam will finish fifth in Asia qualifying. I don't remember how Syria or Lebanon fare, but they're probably also very unlikely to reach that level.
Re: Re: OTHERS TOO Not to mention that it would be unexpected if the US were not in the top 3 in CONCACAF. Personally, I would love it if the playoff were between Mexico and Iran. 100,000 insane Mexicans in the Azteca, and nearly as many in Tehran. The series could set attendance records for a home-and-away.
OTHERS TOO I agree that Afghanistan, Pakistan and Vietnam are true long shots. But, Syria finished second twice in the first round. For 1994 they were second on goal differential and for 1990 they were second by 2 points. Lebanon finished in the middle of its group for 1994. It withdrew in 1990.
YEMEN TOO I almost forgot Yemen. They finished about like Lebanon in 1994 qualification first round action after a very poor 1990 showing. The USA's drone planes could provide extra security in Yemen.
Scoey, You are welcome. And thanks for the nice words. I should mention that teams like Syria, and even more so Iraq, are quite capable within Asia. They can do well against any Asian team. That is in fact the problem with Asian football. Too many medicore sides that can upset the better ones in the region (particularly in West Asia), but very few who are truly competitive internationally. Iraq have political problems that keep them from doing as well as they might otherwise. But they are physically and technically good. They resemble Iran without the experience and depth in talent. Syria are very slightly behind Iraq, but also have similar characteristics, with good physique and some good technical players. The Arab states in the Persian Gulf (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, etc), on the other hand, have a different football culture. Basically, they have been pampered with money and facilities, and have been coached well. They also have some flair which they can show against weaker teams but is occasionally totally absent when they face physically strong opponents. Against these sides, the physical match up and how you play tactically is going to be quite telling. In East Asia, S.Korea and Japan are now well known, and China are expected to eventually cash in on the attention the sport is getting the world's largest country. Next in line are Thailand, who lack physique but are otherwise very articulate in the manner they play the game. Thailand are somewhat similar to Japan without the Japanese experience and pedigree.
A strong, late entry for understatement of the year. Seriously, the new playoff arrangement will make following AFC qualifying much more interesting for me and many of us following CONCACAF. Thanks, "Simply Ken" for the insights. I hope you'll be around when qualifying starts to keep us up-to-date and educated on the Asian scene. Personally, I'd still like to see everyone with X.5 spots and a random home-and-home cross-confederation draw for the last 3 spots at the WC. Then the whole of qualifying would have an added dimension of suspense. Not that it isn't pretty fun to follow already!
dheck, Understatement perhaps BTW, if you go by FIFA's rankings, then the 5th best team in Asia is ...Iraq!! Personally, I would much prefer a US-Iraq soccer contest, and find that to be more closely competitive (even if the US would be favored), than a military dual where Iraq have no chance
I can predict that the US 'B' team is capable enough to best most Asian teams as of this year. If you think that China or Thailand or UAE or Syria or Yemen are going to be a lot stronger next time around than this time let me know why. I see no reason to believe that random Arab or Asian countries (not talking about the top 3-4 sides) are going to improve as much over the next 4 years as the US will AND who wouldn't agree that the US is as good as the top Asian teams currently?
It is tough to measure the matchup. In Asia, Iran has an uphand against S. Korea and China, but not very good against bunch of Arabia teams. Otherwise, China always beat S. Arabia but have problem with Iran and S. Korea. In my opinion, I would put Iran and Japan as best two teams in the Asia. Even though S. Korea did good in World Cup, they are like US--need to replace a whole defense line. For US, we have some spots are not very good yet. We don't have a good center back paring yet. The only good veteran--Eddie Pope has his limit too (not good on marking in set piece and not a vocal organizer and injury prone). Is Bocanegra come to the age? It is also very interesting to see how Kelly Gray plays as a center back in Chicago this coming season. We also don't have outside backs right now. I am not sold on Barret yet (I am Quakes fan). He was beaten many times by Buddle in MLS. How many times Onyewu got in France is also a key. We do have a chance in March to measure up against Japan.
A hypothetical... How strong would Asia be if the three nations with most/all of their land mass in Asia came home from UEFA? Hmmmm...
Shaster, You make a very good point. Match ups are often as important as how teams rank more generally on paper. In Iran's case, some of the Arab teams know exactly how to get under the skin of our players. Psychologically, Iranians hold them in contempt -- and these teams generally do the kind of things that make our players frustrated. Those things include time wasting, rolling on the grass repeatedly feigning injury, alternating with hacking, super defensive posture, picking arguments with our players over nothing, etc. The combination usually takes away the focus from playing football to all sorts of nonsense, making it easier for the team that is doing these things by design to take advantage of opening that inevitably come their way against an opponent that is tense and frankly angry! Someone had compiled the amount of time Bahrain's players wasted and it came to 30+ minutes in our infamous 3:1 loss. Particularly in a game you know you have to win, fighting over just the basic right to put the ball in play can be irritating. More importantly, it can throw off your concentration completely. This sort of behavior is so common among the Arab sides that Iran faces, that Iranian fans and media began thinking it is a sign of being "professional" on their part, and naive on Iran's part. Regretably, with that kind of tag associated with the behavior that is actually unsportsmen like, I fear that we might see Iran pick up the same habits as well!
Re: A hypothetical... it would be interesting, but in a lot of ways, those countries would get weaker because of the weaker competition of their federation mates.
Scoey, Despite the anguish of seeing Iran lose a direct ticket to the World Cup, and ultimately a place in the tournament, I couldn't help laugh when I read the reaction of the Swedish commentator for Eurosport reporting on the Iran-Bahrain game: "Until now, I thought football was a game played standing up. Now I see it can also be a game played with your back on the grass."