Concacaf v Oceania Playoffs drawn

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Guinho, Nov 26, 2021.

  1. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes, bless their hearts
    Estonia
    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Crossed notes, but yes, that is what I would do.
    And yes 48 teams is going to render this all meaningless.
     
  2. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The thing that makes no sense to me is they used 6 pots of 10(though the last pot had less than that) to draw the 10 first round groups, but used 2 pots of 6 to draw the 3 paths with 4 teams.
     
  3. NGV

    NGV Member+

    Sep 14, 1999
    The problem is that UEFA has small groups, and the majority of teams in those small groups are terrible, so the actual qualification often comes down to a very small number of competitive games between decent teams. And, the difficulty of those few high-level matches is often uneven, because the top few teams in those are often of uneven strength from one group to another..

    Instead of spending lots of games on matches with either one or both of the teams being awful, UEFA could eliminate some of the terrible teams earlier. Then, they could use the available match dates to create larger groups in which a single result is less decisive, and also create a more elaborate final round that (unlike their current tiny playoff) could somewhat correct for imbalances in the previous groups.

    It would be very easy to do this, especially with things like Nations League and Euro qualification as potential ways to separate out the bad teams from the better ones. Instead, we have the current horrible system, in which Italy and Ukraine are on the verge of elimination without having lost a single game.
     
  4. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes, bless their hearts
    Estonia
    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    See, next time I will get you to explain the problem

    exactly this
     
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  5. dlokteff

    dlokteff Member+

    Jan 22, 2002
    San Francisco, CA
    I believe Guatemala was eliminated without allowing a single goal so it’s not like CONCACAF system is so perfect either
     
  6. NGV

    NGV Member+

    Sep 14, 1999
    True enough. But a bad system to determine which bad teamgets to advance in the early rounds is less harmful than a bad system that determines which good team gets to miss the World Cup.
     
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  7. adam tash

    adam tash Member+

    Jul 12, 2013
    Barcelona, Spain
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    even though they only have like 10 total countries basically, south america should have more than 5 teams...6th and 7th South american teams are generally better than the majority of the teams that make the WC, imo

    I personally wish they would combine north and south american qualifying and give the USSF some real pressure for a change.

    *same for euro...lotsa euro teams that dont make it could also do damage at the WC
     
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  8. rashaverak1961

    New England Revolution
    United States
    Jul 23, 2017
    It's a bit odd that CONMEBOL has such a small number of slots (4.5) to qualify relative to their countries' rankings. Chile is the 6th ranked team currently in South America; they're ranked 24th in FIFA. By contrast, CONCACAF has 3.5 slots and the 5th-ranked team in CONCACAF is Jamaica at 57. I'm not complaining but while WC qualifying through CONCACAF (even with talent isn't) is a slog, CONCACAF has a highly favorable number of qualifying spots relative to the regional team rankings on the cusp.
     
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  9. KALM

    KALM Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Boston/Providence
    On the other hand, CONMEBOL is the only confederation in the world where half the members can qualify for the World Cup.
     
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  10. adam tash

    adam tash Member+

    Jul 12, 2013
    Barcelona, Spain
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    only confed where the majority of their teams can do damage at a world cup too....
     
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  11. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    #36 Editor In Chimp, Nov 28, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2021
    Other than Brazil and Argentina, what CONMEBOL sides are regularly making quarterfinal runs and beyond? They don’t look substantively stronger than UEFA by any measure. They have a 3.5 teams that end up losing in R16 to UEFA sides. The sides that don’t qualify out of CONMEBOL would be eliminated quickly in UEFA and would be in a fight to finish 3rd in C-CAF. I’m guessing 20% of UEFA’s teams could manage to accomplish getting knocked out in R16.

    The strength of their qualifying is skewed by them having two sides at minimum that play half their games at the cruising altitude of an Airbus. Bolivia and Ecuador and Peru getting cheap wins at their sky stadiums against good teams makes their qualifying seem more difficult than it is, because with the exception of Ecuador and Colombia, those teams get smacked when they play at sea level.
     
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  12. OWN(yewu)ED

    OWN(yewu)ED Member+

    Club: Venezia F.C.
    May 26, 2006
    chico, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Mexico breathing a sigh of relief by that news
     
  13. dlokteff

    dlokteff Member+

    Jan 22, 2002
    San Francisco, CA
    :thumbsup:
     
  14. adam tash

    adam tash Member+

    Jul 12, 2013
    Barcelona, Spain
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    paraguay has won world cups...uruguay has won world cups....always shows up...losing in the QF to France last time is an indictment?? ok. a very strong chilean team lost to brazil in the brazil world cup in brazil. chile isnt always strong but they were that year. colombia always is dangerous. theres always a minimum of 5 teams that would basically win concacaf in south america. brazil, argentina, colombia, uruguay and whatever team is good that cycle....in my opinion.
     
  15. adam tash

    adam tash Member+

    Jul 12, 2013
    Barcelona, Spain
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    just look at the teams that dont make the world cup in south america vs concacaf....theres no comparison
     
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  16. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I mean Uruguay has regularly made runs, though their team has gotten old and may not make it this time around. But they do insanely well considering the population of their country. Columbia also tends to do decently well in World Cups. Chile had a stretch where they were making it out of the group stage and winning Copa Americas but they're another team whose stars have aged out and haven't been replaced.
     
  17. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    2006; Ecuador eliminated R16, Argentina and Brazil eliminated QF.

    2010: Uruguay finished 4th, Brazil/Argentina eliminated in QF

    2014; Colombia eliminated QF, Chile eliminated R16 (both by Brazil), Brazil eliminated SF, Argentina lost final

    2018: Colombia, Brazil, Argentina eliminated R16, Uruguay eliminated QF.

    2014 aside, that isn’t that great. They’ve had 3 non-Brazil/Argentina sides make it to a QF or further and two of them were a generational Uruguay side. Even the Brazil/Argentina sides over the past 15 years have been kinda overrated (especially Brazil).
     
  18. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    That’s why I said struggle to finish 3rd. Yeah, those sides are better than T&T but are they really better than CRC has been, historically? I don’t really think Bolivia or Venezuela or Peru are really any better than whoever the 3rd place side generally is.
     
  19. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I mean historically none of those three teams are the 5th place team. Peru was in 2018, but prior to that the last cycle they were was 1998. They are currently 5th this time around, but we’ll see if that holds.
     
  20. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    My original post said that the sides that don’t qualify out of CONMEBOL weren’t really better than whoever finishes 3rd here. That generally means Bolivia, Venezuela, Peru, Paraguay and then one of Chile or Ecuador (usually Ecuador). 4 of those sides are absolutely dire.
     
  21. Hexa

    Hexa Member

    May 21, 2010
    Club:
    Vasco da Gama Rio Janeiro
    3 sides (non BRZ and ARG) made it to QF, how does that compares to non-UEFA confederations?

    Does that mean CONMEBOL should get 0.5 more? IMHO, 4.5 is fair. But this will all change with the expansion. 6 for CONMEBOL means 60% of the confederation will always go. This number might even got as high as 80% with the extra spot and if CONMEBOL is hosting.
     
  22. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    I left out Paraguay in 2010 making the QF, so it’s 4 across 4 WCs. A quick count tells me Ghana 2010 and CRC 2014 are the only non-UEFA teams to make a QF during that stretch.
     
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  23. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I mean I think historically that's been an open question. It's not as if the non-US or Mexico team from CONCACAF does well in the World Cup. Costa Rica did in the 2014 World Cup but has otherwise not made it out of the group stage, and when a team like Honduras or Panama has gone, they've gotten absolutely decimated.

    If you combine the two regions this is where the FIFA Rankings (which I know are imperfect) have teams.

    2 Brazil
    5 Argentina
    12 USA
    14 Mexico
    16 Columbia
    17 Uruguay
    22 Peru
    24 Chile
    40 Canada
    43 Paraguay
    46 Ecuador
    49 Costa Rica
    57 Jamaica
    59 Venezuela
    63 Panama
    69 El Salvador
    76 Honduras
    77 Bolivia

    ELO has it

    1 Brazil
    3 Argentina
    13 Columbia
    14 United States
    16 Ecuador
    17 Uruguay
    19 Mexico
    22 Peru
    26 Chile
    28 Canada
    37 Paraguay
    43 Bolivia
    46 Venezuela
    57 Panama
    58 Costa Rica
    65 Jamaica
    83 Honduras
    83 El Salvador

    FIFA ranks the third place CONCACAF team below the 6 teams from COMMENBOL and ELO has them below 7 teams.
     
  24. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    #49 Editor In Chimp, Nov 29, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2021
    Brazil and Argentina are benefitting from some SEC-level bias in those rankings, because they routinely get boatraced when they come up against good UEFA competition.

    They’ve lost every game they’ve played against a UEFA side barring Argentina beating Switzerland and Belgium 1-0 and winning on pens against the Netherlands in 2014. Brazil hasn’t beaten a UEFA team in the knockout stage since 2002. The aggregate score lines of those games is 20-8.
     
  25. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    It's not meant to be the UEFA/CONMEBOL challenge.

    It's the World Cup. So yes, that means there will be inferior teams from federations other than CONCACAF and UEFA that will make the event. Maybe even more so when we go to 48 teams.
     
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