Concacaf Qualifying For World Cup 2022 Prediction Contest: Round 1 [R]

This will be the fourth World Cup Qualifying prediction contest I do. Round 1 will have 60 games and be worth 35.4 percent. Round 2 will have 6 games and be worth 6.1 percent. Round 3 is the Octagonal, and it will be worth 59.5 percent. I'm going to use the terms "percent" and "points" interchangeably. In World Cup 2018 Qualifying, the best score was 80.785 by barnabyjonez. The draw will be in mid-August, and the games start in October. I posted the qualifying format in another topic, and I'll post the components of each round when the time comes. It took time to make it add up to 100 percent, make the weights of the rounds and components within the rounds what I want, and avoid repeating decimals.

All score predictions are evaluated this way:

Exact Score: 4 points

Correct Result and correct on one team's score and 1 goal off on the other team's score, or 1 goal off on each team's score in the same direction: 3 points

Any other Correct Result: 2 points

Wrong Result: 0 points

 

All standings and score predictions must be made before the first game starts on October 7. Here is the schedule:

October 7:
A: Antigua and Barbuda vs Montserrat
B: Suriname vs. Cayman Islands
C: Guatemala vs. Cuba
D: Dominican Republic vs. Dominica
E: Nicaragua vs. Saint Lucia
F: Saint Kitts and Nevis vs. Puerto Rico

October 8:
A: El Salvador vs. Grenada
B: Canada vs. Bermuda
C: Curacao vs. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
D: Panama vs. Barbados
E: Haiti vs. Belize
F: Trinidad and Tobago vs. Guyana

October 10:
A: U.S. Virgin Islands vs. Antigua and Barbuda
B: Aruba vs. Suriname
C: British Virgin Islands vs. Guatemala
D: Anguilla vs. Dominican Republic
E: Turks and Caicos Islands vs. Nicaragua
F: Bahamas vs. Saint Kitts and Nevis

October 11:
A: Montserrat vs. El Salvador
B: Cayman Islands vs. Canada
C: Cuba vs. Curacao
D: Dominica vs. Panama
E: Saint Lucia vs. Haiti
F: Puerto Rico vs. Trinidad and Tobago

October 13:
A: Grenada vs. U.S. Virgin Islands
B: Bermuda vs. Aruba
C: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines vs. British Virgin Islands
D: Barbados vs. Anguilla
E: Belize vs. Turks and Caicos Islands
F: Guyana vs. Bahamas

November 11:
A: Montserrat vs. U.S. Virgin Islands
B: Cayman Islands vs. Aruba
C: Cuba vs. British Virgin Islands
D: Dominica vs. Anguilla
E: Saint Lucia vs. Turks and Caicos Islands
F: Puerto Rico vs. Bahamas

November 13:
A: Antigua and Barbuda vs. Grenada
B: Suriname vs. Bermuda
C: Guatemala vs. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
D: Dominican Republic vs. Barbados
E: Nicaragua vs. Belize
F: Saint Kitts and Nevis vs. Guyana

November 14:
A: U.S. Virgin Islands vs. El Salvador
B: Aruba vs. Canada
C: British Virgin Islands vs. Curacao
D: Anguilla vs. Panama
E: Turks and Caicos Islands vs. Haiti
F: Bahamas vs. Trinidad and Tobago

November 17 (2 games per group):
A: Grenada vs. Montserrat, El Salvador vs. Antigua and Barbuda
B: Bermuda vs. Cayman Islands, Canada vs. Suriname
C: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Cuba, Curacao vs. Guatemala
D: Barbados vs. Dominica, Panama vs. Dominican Republic
E: Belize vs. Saint Lucia, Haiti vs. Nicaragua
F: Guyana vs. Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago vs. Saint Kitts and Nevis

 

@barnabyjonez
1. For November 11, you didn't predict Group F.
2. Please add your predictions up to make standings predictions with points, goals scored, and goals allowed. Those are tiebreakers before head-to-head. If anybody predicts teams to be tied on points, goals scored, goals allowed, and play a head-to-head draw, predict which team will win the next tiebreaker, which is fair play. I can add predictions up myself, but I'd rather everybody do that on their own.

The amount of people who predicted has been decreasing from World Cup to World Cup, so I'm happy whenever somebody makes predictions. The games start on Wednesday October 7, which is in 46 days.

I used the FIFA Ranking and ELO Rating differences to plan my predictions. I used World Cup 2014 Qualifying Round 2, which was the first of three group stages, to guess what amount of total goals and margins I should predict. That was similar to Round 1 now with six groups before the top teams start.

 

I check everybody's standings myself, so I don't know if it saves me time to ask people to post their standings predictions. I don't know if it's important to people to see other standings predictions. If people don't post standings predictions, I will check them without posting, and anyone who wants to add them up can do so. If anybody think I incorrectly scored anybody's predictions, say so. Here are what barnabyjonez's score predictions add up to when they didn't match his standings:

Group A:
El Salvador scores 11, not 12
Montserrat scores 8, not 9

Group B:
Aruba with 3 points, not 4

Group E:
Belize with 6 points, not 4
Saint Lucia with 3 points, not 4

Group F:
Guyana with 6 points, not 4

None of those impact the order of the teams. I'm not trying to be mean with these corrections.

 

Here are my predictions:

October 7:
A: Antigua and Barbuda 2-2 Montserrat
B: Suriname 3-0 Cayman Islands
C: Guatemala 3-1 Cuba
D: Dominican Republic 2-1 Dominica
E: Nicaragua 2-0 Saint Lucia
F: Saint Kitts and Nevis 2-1 Puerto Rico

October 8:
A: El Salvador 4-2 Grenada
B: Canada 4-0 Bermuda
C: Curacao 3-1 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
D: Panama 4-0 Barbados
E: Haiti 4-0 Belize
F: Trinidad and Tobago 2-1 Guyana

October 10:
A: U.S. Virgin Islands 0-2 Antigua and Barbuda
B: Aruba 0-2 Suriname
C: British Virgin Islands 0-4 Guatemala
D: Anguilla 0-2 Dominican Republic
E: Turks and Caicos Islands 1-2 Nicaragua
F: Bahamas 1-1 Saint Kitts and Nevis

October 11:
A: Montserrat 2-4 El Salvador
B: Cayman Islands 0-4 Canada
C: Cuba 1-1 Curacao
D: Dominica 1-3 Panama
E: Saint Lucia 1-4 Haiti
F: Puerto Rico 1-2 Trinidad and Tobago

October 13:
A: Grenada 4-0 U.S. Virgin Islands
B: Bermuda 3-1 Aruba
C: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 3-0 British Virgin Islands
D: Barbados 5-1 Anguilla
E: Belize 3-0 Turks and Caicos Islands
F: Guyana 2-0 Bahamas

November 11:
A: Montserrat 3-1 U.S. Virgin Islands
B: Cayman Islands 1-1 Aruba
C: Cuba 5-1 British Virgin Islands
D: Dominica 4-1 Anguilla
E: Saint Lucia 3-0 Turks and Caicos Islands
F: Puerto Rico 1-1 Bahamas

November 13:
A: Antigua and Barbuda 2-2 Grenada
B: Suriname 2-2 Bermuda
C: Guatemala 3-0 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
D: Dominican Republic 2-2 Barbados
E: Nicaragua 1-1 Belize
F: Saint Kitts and Nevis 2-2 Guyana

November 14:
A: U.S. Virgin Islands 0-6 El Salvador
B: Aruba 0-5 Canada
C: British Virgin Islands 1-6 Curacao
D: Anguilla 1-7 Panama
E: Turks and Caicos Islands 0-4 Haiti
F: Bahamas 1-2 Trinidad and Tobago

November 17 (2 games per group):
A: Grenada 2-2 Montserrat, El Salvador 3-1 Antigua and Barbuda
B: Bermuda 3-1 Cayman Islands, Canada 3-1 Suriname
C: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 2-2 Cuba, Curacao 2-1 Guatemala
D: Barbados 3-2 Dominica, Panama 3-1 Dominican Republic
E: Belize 2-2 Saint Lucia, Haiti 4-1 Nicaragua
F: Guyana 2-2 Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago 1-0 Saint Kitts and Nevis

I realized that there are some matchdays where I predict home teams to dominate and some where I predict away teams to dominate because all groups have the same schedule such as 2 seeds hosting 4 seeds on Matchday 1.

Here are my standings predictions:

Group A:
El Salvador: 12 points, +12
Grenada: 5 points, +2
Montserrat: 5 points, +0 (wins goals scored tiebreaker over Antigua and Barbuda 8-7)
Antigua and Barbuda: 5 points, +0
U.S. Virgin Islands: 0 points, -14

Group B:
Canada: 12 points, +15
Suriname: 7 points, +3
Bermuda: 7 points, +0
Cayman Islands: 1 point, -9 (wins fair play tiebreaker over Aruba with both teams scoring 2 and allowing 11)
Aruba: 1 point, -9

Group C:
Curacao: 10 points, +8
Guatemala: 9 points, +8
Cuba: 5 points, +2
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: 4 points, -2
British Virgin Islands: 0 points, -16

Group D:
Panama: 12 points, +14
Barbados: 7 points, +1 (wins goals scored tiebreaker over Dominican Republic 10-9)
Dominican Republic: 7 points, +1
Dominica: 3 points, -1
Anguilla: 0 points, -15

Group E:
Haiti: 12, +14
Nicaragua: 7, +0
Belize: 5, -1
Saint Lucia: 4, -2
Turks and Caicos Islands: 0, -11

Group F:
Trinidad and Tobago: 12, +4
Guyana: 5, +1
Saint Kitts and Nevis: 5, +0
Puerto Rico: 2, -2
Bahamas: 2, -3

I didn't try to use the fair play tiebreaker, but that's how my predictions in Group B added up. I predicted Trinidad and Tobago to win every game by 1.

The games start in 41 days.

 

Because of Robert Borden's post from President Victor Montagliani that Concacaf won't start in October, probably won't start in November, and probably will start in March, the format will probably need to be changed again. I think there should be three aggregate rounds before a Hexagonal like I posted in the General Topic, or there could be many teams in single round-robin groups at one site to eliminate a lot of teams in one week. People have a lot bigger problems than wasting time on a prediction contest that has the format change, but I'm still disappointed. If the format changes, I might not make a prediction contest.

 

If games are moved to neutral sites, I would give people an opportunity to change their predictions.

 

March 30:
A: Grenada vs. U.S. Virgin Islands
B: Bermuda vs. Aruba
C: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines vs. British Virgin Islands
D: Barbados vs. Anguilla
E: Belize vs. Turks and Caicos Islands
F: Guyana vs. Bahamas

June 2:
A: Montserrat vs. U.S. Virgin Islands
B: Cayman Islands vs. Aruba
C: Cuba vs. British Virgin Islands
D: Dominica vs. Anguilla
E: Saint Lucia vs. Turks and Caicos Islands
F: Puerto Rico vs. Bahamas

June 4:
A: Antigua and Barbuda vs. Grenada
B: Suriname vs. Bermuda
C: Guatemala vs. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
D: Dominican Republic vs. Barbados
E: Nicaragua vs. Belize
F: Saint Kitts and Nevis vs. Guyana

June 5:
A: U.S. Virgin Islands vs. El Salvador
B: Aruba vs. Canada
C: British Virgin Islands vs. Curacao
D: Anguilla vs. Panama
E: Turks and Caicos Islands vs. Haiti
F: Bahamas vs. Trinidad and Tobago

June 8 (2 games per group):
A: Grenada vs. Montserrat, El Salvador vs. Antigua and Barbuda
B: Bermuda vs. Cayman Islands, Canada vs. Suriname
C: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Cuba, Curacao vs. Guatemala
D: Barbados vs. Dominica, Panama vs. Dominican Republic
E: Belize vs. Saint Lucia, Haiti vs. Nicaragua
F: Guyana vs. Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago vs. Saint Kitts and Nevis

Round 2 will be on June 12 and 15, so neither the teams nor fans will have much time in between. I will allow predictions for Round 2 before Round 1 or at any point during Round 1 for a Round 2 pairing that may or may not happen, and you can make predictions that include more than one team in a Round 1 group, such as predicting for Curacao vs. Panama and Guatemala vs. Panama. You can change your predictions as long as they are done before Round 2 starts.

The Hexagonal will be from September 2021 to March 2022.

 

I see that my previous post only had the day of games in March. Here is the complete schedule:

March 24:
A: Antigua and Barbuda vs. Montserrat
B: Suriname vs. Cayman Islands
C: Guatemala vs. Cuba
D: Dominican Republic vs. Dominica
E: Nicaragua vs. Saint Lucia
F: Saint Kitts and Nevis vs. Puerto Rico

March 25:
A: El Salvador vs. Grenada
B: Canada vs. Bermuda
C: Curacao vs. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
D: Panama vs. Barbados
E: Haiti vs. Belize
F: Trinidad and Tobago vs. Guyana

March 27:
A: U.S. Virgin Islands vs. Antigua and Barbuda
B: Aruba vs. Suriname
C: British Virgin Islands vs. Guatemala
D: Anguilla vs. Dominican Republic
E: Turks and Caicos Islands vs. Nicaragua
F: Bahamas vs. Saint Kitts and Nevis

March 28:
A: Montserrat vs. El Salvador
B: Cayman Islands vs. Canada
C: Cuba vs. Curacao
D: Dominica vs. Panama
E: Saint Lucia vs. Haiti
F: Puerto Rico vs. Trinidad and Tobago

March 30:
A: Grenada vs. U.S. Virgin Islands
B: Bermuda vs. Aruba
C: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines vs. British Virgin Islands
D: Barbados vs. Anguilla
E: Belize vs. Turks and Caicos Islands
F: Guyana vs. Bahamas

June 2:
A: Montserrat vs. U.S. Virgin Islands
B: Cayman Islands vs. Aruba
C: Cuba vs. British Virgin Islands
D: Dominica vs. Anguilla
E: Saint Lucia vs. Turks and Caicos Islands
F: Puerto Rico vs. Bahamas

June 4:
A: Antigua and Barbuda vs. Grenada
B: Suriname vs. Bermuda
C: Guatemala vs. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
D: Dominican Republic vs. Barbados
E: Nicaragua vs. Belize
F: Saint Kitts and Nevis vs. Guyana

June 5:
A: U.S. Virgin Islands vs. El Salvador
B: Aruba vs. Canada
C: British Virgin Islands vs. Curacao
D: Anguilla vs. Panama
E: Turks and Caicos Islands vs. Haiti
F: Bahamas vs. Trinidad and Tobago

June 8 (2 games per group):
A: Grenada vs. Montserrat, El Salvador vs. Antigua and Barbuda
B: Bermuda vs. Cayman Islands, Canada vs. Suriname
C: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines vs. Cuba, Curacao vs. Guatemala
D: Barbados vs. Dominica, Panama vs. Dominican Republic
E: Belize vs. Saint Lucia, Haiti vs. Nicaragua
F: Guyana vs. Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago vs. Saint Kitts and Nevis

AFC will play in March, but they haven't announced their dates. I'm happy Concacaf announced their dates before AFC.

 

I hope people will make predictions. I'm not going to change mine. barnabyjonez is the only other person who predicted, and he can change his. All predictions for Round 1 must be made before the games start on March 24, which is in 30 days.

 

Okay.

 

https://resources.fifa.com/image/up...-times-march.pdf?cloudid=mcugukgsbs6hx8haxoaw has the schedule with sites and kickoff times. Of the 30 games in March, these game will be played at neutral sites with the start time in USA Eastern:

1. March 24 at 7:00 P.M. Antigua and Barbuda vs. Montserrat at Ergillo Hato Stadium in in Willemstad, Curacao
2. March 24 at 7:00 P.M. St. Kitts and Nevis vs. Puerto Rico at Estadio Felix Sanchez in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
3. March 25 at 8:00 P.M. Canada vs. Bermuda at Exploria Stadium in Orlando, Florida, USA
4. March 25 at 8:00 P.M. Panama vs. Barbados at Estadio Felix Sanchez in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
5. March 25 at 8:00 P.M. Trinidad and Tobago vs. Guyana at Estadio Panamericano in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
6. March 27 at 6:00 P.M. Anguilla vs. Dominican Republic at Inter Miami FC Stadium in Miami, Florida, USA
7. March 27 at 7:00 P.M. Turks and Caicos Islands vs. Nicaragua at Estadio Panamericano in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
8. March 27 at 8:00 P.M. Aruba vs. Suriname at IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, USA
9. March 27 at 8:00 P.M. British Virgin Islands vs. Curacao at Ergillo Hato Stadium in in Willemstad, Curacao
10. March 28 at 4:00 P.M. Dominica vs. Panama at Estadio Felix Sanchez in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
11. March 28 at 5:00 P.M. Cuba vs. Curacao at Estadio Doroteo Guamuch Flores in Guatemala City, Guatemala
12. March 28 at 7:00 P.M. Montserrat vs. El Salvador at Ergillo Hato Stadium in Willemstad, Curacao
13. March 28 at time to be determined: Cayman Islands vs. Canada at site to be determined
14. March 28 at time to be determined: St. Lucia vs. Haiti at site to be determined
15. March 30 at 7:00 P.M. Belize vs. Turks and Caicos Islands at Estadio Panamericano in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
16. March 30 at 7:30 P.M. Barbados vs. Anguilla at Estadio Felix Sanchez in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
17. March 30 at 8:00 P.M. St. Vincent and the Grenadines vs. British Virgin Islands at Ergillo Hato Stadium in in Willemstad, Curacao

Home: 13 (43 1/3 percent)
Ergillo Hato Stadium in Willemstad, Curacao: 4 (13 1/3 percent)
Estadio Felix Sanchez in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic: 4 (13 1/3 percent)
Estadio Panamericano in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic: 3 (10 percent)
To be determined: 2 (6 2/3 percent)
Exploria Stadium in Orlando, Florida, USA: 1 (3 1/3 percent)
Inter Miami FC Stadium in Miami, Florida, USA: 1 (3 1/3 percent)
IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, USA: 1 (3 1/3 percent)
Estadio Doroteo Guamuch Flores in Guatemala City, Guatemala: 1 (3 1/3 percent)

I wonder if a city in any confederation has ever hosted two WCQs at the same time, but that will happen in Santo Domingo.

Of the 28 times that were announced, 25 will be on the hour, and 3 will be on the half hour. Here are the time frequencies:

4:00 P.M. 1
5:00 P.M. 3
6:00 P.M. 2
6:30 P.M. 1
7:00 P.M. 11
7:30 P.M. 1
8:00 P.M. 7
9:00 P.M. 1
9:30 P.M. 1

That's an average time of 7:01. Concacaf normally has a significant amount of late games, so I'm happy that only two games start after 8:00 P.M., those being Nicaragua vs. St. Lucia on March 24 at 9:00 P.M., and El Salvador vs Grenada on March 25 at 9:30 P.M. Of the 28 games with announced times, 22 will be in USA Eastern. The others are two games with a local time one hour later and four games with a local time two hours earlier.

 

@Dr. Gamera
@Sebsasour
@GPisco
@Every Four Years
@SetPeace
@Chul0
@Blue_nation724

Ten people predicted the Hexagonal last time who haven't posted in this topic yet. Three of them must have left because I could alert them here. I'm not retyping the instructions. Post 1 has information about how I will score the predictions, and Post 11 has the schedule. You must predict all the March games before the first game on Wednesday March 24 at 5:00 P.M. Eastern. You must prediction all the June games in Round 1 before the first game kicks off. Each team will play two Round 1 games in March and two Round 1 games in June. The group winners will play Round 2 in June, so those predictions will need to be made quickly after the teams are known, but it shouldn't take long to predict three aggregates.

 

I read that Saint Lucia doesn't want to play until June. Saint Lucia is supposed to host Haiti on March 28 in the only game that has not a site determined. Since June has games in Round 1 and Round 2, I don't see how that's possible. We'll see if Saint Lucia forfeits their first two games or if they drop out to make a group of four. It's good that Saint Lucia is supposed to play the top two seeds in March, so if they forfeit against Nicaragua and Haiti it won't affect those two relative to each other. If they drop out, I hope the dates in June are changed because Belize's last game would be June 4 and Haiti would play two games after that on June 5 and June 8. If any group goes down to four teams, the June dates should be changed so the four teams play their last game on the same day. It's annoying for me to make up percentages of how much each part is worth and then have a team drop out, which happened in the first group stage for 2014 when Bahamas withdrew.

 

@Paul Calixte
@edcalvi

Would you like to make predictions? Only four people other than me made predictions so far. All predictions for March must be made before the first game starts on Wednesday at 5:00 P.M. USA Eastern.