As a Panamanian , I am very upset at the sudden implementation of this new format . The timing is horrible . But to top it off, seems the past administration knew of it 2 years ago, and didn’t communicate it to the new administration (or to coaches Dely and Stemple). So all those friendlies since Russia 2018 were taken lightly , used as training for alternate teams/lineups, now come to find out they’re being taken into consideration because the FIFA ranking now matters.. SMDH
I'm not particularly crazy about this 2022 WCQ format, but it could be used only for this World Cup. With the three largest CONCACAF nations serving as hosts in 2026, qualifying will be of no concern to the likes of USA, Canada, or Mexico. The increase of teams from 32 to 48 would allow for an additional 3 or 4 teams to qualify from CONCACAF too. The confederation has plenty of time to assess how well the system works for 2022 as it relates to qualifying in 2030. Also, the 2018 World Cup qualifying Hex teams did not have to qualify for this year's Gold Cup, and that seemed to work out alright.
No guarantee in what I'm about to say (I haven't been paying close attention since before Russia hosted the tournament that they bought), but I believe this is the timeline: Wales did what you said. FIFA changed their ranking system to an ELO system. The new system makes it more difficult. I remember there were LOTS of discussions about the ways to game the FIFA ranking. There was even a Romanian guy that was doing a very detailed analysis and was making himself available to federations that were interested in doing just what Wales did. Don't know if they used the Romanian guy's services. I haven't tried to hunt that guy's site down. He pointed out so many flaws with the ranking at the time that I'm both surprised (FIFA corruption and stupidity) and not (the flaws were so obvious and widely discussed) that they changed their method. There used to be an ELO-based ranking around. I also haven't searched to see if that's still there. Anyway. A little history that I remember.
If that is the case why not just stick with the previous format? Why change it for one cycle? This is a pretty big assumption. All we know is they are changing the format.
There aren't enough dates for the previous format when they are squeezing two iterations of the Nations League, plus the Nations League classification matches that already happened, between the 2018 and 2022 World Cups.
Well, I'm not assuming CONCACAF will change it after just one cycle. If it is deemed to be a disadvantage to the "7th top team" to come out of the Nations League competition, they can tweak it for future qualifying tournaments. I just used 2030 as an example since North America will host in 2026 which cancels out 3 of the participants.
Not that I'm aware, but with a 48-team field on tap for 2026, I'm sure all 3 will get in automatically. Poland and Ukraine were automatically entered into Euro2012, even though it was a UEFA-sponsored event. I just wish for 2026 FIFA would change its format from 16 groups of 3 to 12 groups of 4 in the first round of matches.
I heard on the news that they interviewed the new president and he said he was very comfortable with this new system. He said he had done the math (Panama games + rivals games) and he looked confident League of Nations games will give them the edge on the Hex. I haven´t made the math myself so I don't know, but I'm sure it depends a lot on ES and Honduras games. Remember they both were eliminated in group stage at the Gold Cup so they for sure will lose points. MEX, USA, CR and Jamaica basically in the Hex already
Not to go too much off topic, but I would actually love a 48 game tournament if they would give 16 teams a bye to an 8-group stage of 32, while the other 16 slots are determined by 16 one-off play-in matches. That would add a week at the beginning of the WC, but I think that week would provide some of the most exciting moments of the tournament. No way it would happen, I know, for multiple reasons. But I can always dream.
I'd hate it. Years of qualification to play one lousy game and go home? Nah..I'd rather they get a group schedule. 3 team groups are terrible for a lot of reasons. 4 are best. You get a whole week and possibly change of playing at the World Cup. That's a nice reward.
That's why it would be commercially untenable, too. You're trying to get people to travel from around the world, but only guaranteeing their team one game? Nope.
On that note, if I had my druthers, when you expand from 32 to 48 you would increase group size (8x6 for 5 group games instead of three) and *not* add an R32 knockout instead of add the extra KO round with 12x4 or 16x3 groups... Sure, it's one more matchday, but I think it would be more fun.
The politics don't allow for that--they had to keep it at seven games max for a team in order not to upset the clubs.
Yeah I know... but honestly f*$% the power clubs. That proposed revamp to the UCL is utterly asinine.
[1] If it is an unjust system, why use it for any world cup? Why now? [2] Completely different situation. First, All the open slots for the Gold Cup went to Concacaf teams. If 6 of 16 were Hex associated, then that left 10 slots available for other concacaf teams. Any solid team had no one but themselves to blame if they could not crack that. With the WC scenario, all but two slots [at most] are left open to the non-predetermined teams to make the Hex. That is a very very narrow gate. Second, The teams that make the Hex last time[and so were granted entry into the Gold Cup] earned the Hex through meaningful matches, and were not dependent on the vagaries --to put it mildly-- of the FIFA ranking system. Here we would have teams make the Hex not through meaningful matches, but absolutely only by the vagaries of the FIFA ranking system...including all the friendlies and crap like that. It makes it anything but aboveboard. The whole thing smells of the fix being in.
Again, there is nothing “vague” about the FIFA ranking system anymore. They’ve published the formula being used and you can calculate the effect of any result of any game on the teams involved.
The site is http://www.football-rankings.info/ and Edgar (the Romanian) sold or gave the site to somebody named Ed who does the same thing. The old formula was published, and the FIFA Rankings used to let you use recent results and/or hypothetical scores for upcoming games to find out a team's ranking points in the next FIFA Rankings before they were released. That feature has been taken away.
Just because they reduced the utility of the website doesn’t make the rankings themselves any more vague.
They could make it 2 groups of 6. Winners to the world cup. 2nd place finishers play each other for the 3rd spot. Loser plays the winner of the secondary tournament for the 3.5 spot. Shit they can even make it elimination tournament with 2-3rd place of each group.
yeah he basically said that the calendar is already set, and from the remaining games we can make make up the difference and surpass ESV... he mentioned ESV can only get a max of 17 points, and we can make 28 (plus another add'l 12 points from 4 friendlies in 2019).