Combining the Polls - does that help sort this out?

Discussion in 'College & Amateur Soccer' started by Carolina, Nov 3, 2004.

  1. Carolina

    Carolina Member

    Dec 6, 2000
    CONCACAF
    There are 7 teams that are in the top 10 of all four polls (Soccer America, College Soccer Weekly, NSCAA, Soccer Times). All have the same cut-off; games through Sunday, October 31st.

    Here is the list of those 7 teams with the total score of their 4 rankings. They appear to form 3 groups.
    Group 1
    UNC Greensboro 4

    Group 2
    SMU 13
    UCLA 15

    Group 3
    Indiana 23
    UC Santa Barbara 26
    Wake Forest 28
    Virgina 37

    Anybody think that the combination of these polls helps us know what is the real pecking order in D1 soccer?
     
  2. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    Here's a look at all the polls, side by side and 18 teams are ranked by all four polls. But, there are some wide gaps in the opinions of many of the teams from poll to poll which tells you there are very few consensuses.

    Soccer America
    http://www.socceramerica.com/article.asp?Art_ID=562135234

    Soccer Times
    http://www.soccertimes.com/ncaa/top25/men.htm

    NSCAA
    http://nscaa.com/rank/20041102/D1M/0/index.html

    CollegeSoccerNews.com
    http://collegesoccernews.com/index_files/page0130.htm

    TEAM (W-L-T – thru Oct. 31) -- SA -- ST -- NSC -- CSN --
    UNC Greensboro (16-0-1) -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 -- 1 --
    Southern Methodist (13-3-0) -- 3 -- 5 -- 3 -- 2 --
    Notre Dame (13-2-2) -- 11 -- 2 -- 4 -- 4 --
    Indiana (13-3-1) -- 10 -- 3 -- 7 -- 3 --
    UCLA (10-2-2) -- 4 -- 4 -- 2 -- 5 --
    UC Santa Barbara (12-2-1) -- 8 – 6 -- 5 -- 7 --
    Wake Forest (11-3-1) -- 5 -- 8 -- 9 -- 6 --
    New Mexico (13-1-1) -- 2 -- 7 -- 12 -- 8 --
    Virginia (14-3-0) -- 9 -- 9 -- 10 -- 9 --
    Maryland (12-4-1) -- 12 -- 10 -- 6 -- 10 --
    Boston College (11-3-2) -- 13 -- 13 -- 8 -- 11 --
    Washington (11-4-2) -- 7 -- 11 -- 17 -- 13 --
    California (11-3-2) -- 6 -- 12 -- 24 -- 14 --
    Creighton (12-4-0) -- 14 -- 14 -- 18 -- 12 --
    St. John's (10-4-4) -- 20 -- 15 -- 11 -- 16 --
    Virginia Commonwealth (10-4-1) -- 21 -- 16 -- 16 -- 15 --
    Memphis (11-3-1) -- 22 -- 18 -- 13 -- 20 --
    Penn State (9-3-6) -- 17 -- 20 -- 14 -- 23 --

    James Madison (14-2-1) -- 16 -- 21 -- NR -- 17 --
    Santa Clara (12-4-0) -- 15 -- 17 -- NR -- 21 --
    San Francisco (11-3-1) -- 25 – 24 -- NR -- 19 --
    Kentucky (11-4-3) -- NR -- 23 – 19 -- 22 --
    Duke (13-4-0) -- 19 -- 19 -- NR -- 27 --
    South Carolina (10-5-1) -- 24 -- 22 -- 25 -- NR --

    Hartwick (11-2-3) -- NR -- NR -- 15 -- 18 --
    Stanford (7-4-5) -- 18 -- 25 -- NR -- NR --

    Boston University (9-6-1) -- NR -- NR -- 20 -- NR --
    Seton Hall (11-6-1) -- NR -- NR -- 21 -- NR --
    Charleston (11-5-1) -- NR -- NR -- 22 -- NR --
    Florida International (8-5-0) -- 23 -- NR -- NR -- NR --
    Binghamton (10-1-6) -- NR -- NR -- 23 -- NR --
    Loyola Marymount (9-5-3) -- NR -- NR -- NR -- 24 --
    Old Dominion (10-5-2) -- NR -- NR -- NR -- 25 --
    Ohio State (9-5-2) -- NR -- NR -- NR -- 26 --
    Cal State Northridge (8-4-2) -- NR -- NR -- NR -- 28 --
    Northwestern (10-4-2) -- NR -- NR -- NR -- 29 --
    Wisconsin-Milwaukee (10-4-3) -- NR -- NR -- NR -- 30 --

    ABOUT THE POLLS:

    *The CSN poll ranks 30 teams, the other three polls 25.

    *The NSCAA poll is voted on by the coaches but is mandated to have balanced geographical representation.

    *The Soccer Times poll is voted on by a select panel of coaches and doesn’t have a geographical mandate.

    *The Soccer America poll is done by a group of SA staffers in Berkeley.

    *The College Soccer News poll is done by some dude sitting in front of his computer in Tallahassee.
     
  3. FritoBandito

    FritoBandito New Member

    Sep 2, 2003
    US
    Beaner Poll

    The Beaner Poll (average of the four polls for each school that appears on the four polls, taken to two significant digits) results in the following:

    UNCG -- 1.00
    SMU -- 3.25
    UCLA -- 3.75
    ND -- 5.50
    IU -- 5.75
    UCSB -- 6.50
    Wake Forest -- 7.00
    New Mexico -- 7.25
    UVA -- 9.00
    Maryland -- 9.50
    Boston College -- 11.25
    Washington -- 12.00
    California -- 14.00
    Creighton -- 14.50
    St. Johns -- 15.50
    VCU -- 17.00
    Memphis -- 18.25
    Penn St. -- 18.50
     
  4. BigRedFootie

    BigRedFootie Member

    Jan 31, 2003
    B-town
    Re: Beaner Poll

    Although not a poll, Albyn Jones' power ratings systemsoccerratings.com has consistently been better at predicting the top dogs.

    This week's ratings:
    Team Rank
    UCLA 1
    Wake Forest 2
    Indiana 3
    UC Santa Barbara 4
    UNC Greensboro 5
    Notre Dame 6
    SMU 7
    Maryland 8
    New Mexico 9
    California 10

    Why are teams such as UNCG, UVA, & SMU not ranked as high? Strength of schedule.


    BRF
     
  5. recsoc

    recsoc Member

    Oct 4, 2003
    Re: Beaner Poll

    I agree w/ BigREdFootie on the ratings being a better barometer than the rankings - the one caveat to the Albyn Jones ratings is they do not take into account recent performance, i.e. - it always looks at the season as a whole because it is a computer. The rankings, and the NCAA selection committee, do pay attention to recent results, particularly the last 10 for the NCAA.
     
  6. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    Re: Beaner Poll

    You sure about this? When Jones was doing international ratings, he did take recent performance into account, and my impression has been that he uses the same model for college soccer.
     
  7. Kubby

    Kubby Member

    Apr 28, 2004
    Re: Beaner Poll

    Great thread and posts ... This is what a message board was intended for IMO.
     
  8. recsoc

    recsoc Member

    Oct 4, 2003
    Re: Beaner Poll

    I am not sure - I am guessing based on the ratings - I could easily be wrong.
     
  9. Shutout

    Shutout New Member

    Dec 6, 2003
    Re: Beaner Poll

    How a team like New Mexico, with one loss and a win over a 'then #1 Indiana', is not in all polls TOP 10 is ridiculous. Strength of schedule shouldn't matter. They beat #1/defending champ.

    SEPARATE ISSUE: If you schedule hard and lose those games then you shouldn't get a benefit (ranked/receiving votes/region ranking). Connecticut for instance. St. Louis (this year) is a great program but lost all but one to ranked opponents.


     
  10. Carolina

    Carolina Member

    Dec 6, 2000
    CONCACAF
    Re: Beaner Poll

     
  11. numerista

    numerista New Member

    Mar 21, 2004
    Re: Beaner Poll

    Turns out there's an explanation here.
    http://www.soccerratings.com/Ratings.html

    In short, it appears that you were right. The model doesn't distinguish between early season and late season games.

    The ratings also violate another NCAA taboo: they make use of results from previous seasons. Jones claims that by the end of the year, this approach doesn't make much difference, but I don't think that's clear. Stanford's 2003 team was a disastrous 3-15-2, yet Jones's system ranks them a respectable #62. To find another team that lost 75% of its games, you have to go all the way down the rankings to Xavier at #169.

    I suspect that Stanford's previous track record kept them from falling too far down the list.
     
  12. CuriousGeorge

    CuriousGeorge New Member

    Jan 6, 2003
    SoCal
    Re: Beaner Poll

     
  13. Shutout

    Shutout New Member

    Dec 6, 2003
    Re: Beaner Poll

    My bad CuriousGeorge...you are absolutely right...the defending NCAA Division 1 Champion, out of 198 schools, should not be #1...even if Indiana was #5, New Mexico still beat them and have ONE loss on the year...where should New Mexico be? I'm just CURIOUS, George!


     

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