Is this a shock? You think being U20 coach is impressionable to a 16-year old? Recruiting would be different for schools like Penn State and UCLA if National Team ties were cut.
All those great recruits, yet zero national titles. I doubt those girls are any better than likes of Cheney, Lang, Oakes etc..
The Soccer America article would seem to show Mewis graduating early to be in the 2010 class. (Listed as a "'14") However, none of the other sources show that yet. The 2010 class has UCLA with a strong class (I have them ranked 4th along with Notre Dame) but it is the 2011 class that is the barnburner. (See the thread on the Class of 2011 Recruiting.) The Soccer America has them lumped together in the same article.
Some of us like Denver and Boulder because (among many other reasons) there isn't that much snow, except in March. And what there is usually melts pretty quickly. But don't tell anybody. Enough people live here. In my next life I will move from California to Boulder BEFORE my son goes to CU, not several years after. CU needs all those out-of-state students paying lots of tuition because Colorado contributes something like 8% of the operating budget. Sometimes I think the school would be better off private (as long as they kept the soccer team).
No digression. The 2 feet of snow at the end of October ended the morning before Colorado's final home soccer game, so it's relevant. And soccer is played in weather. They didn't need to play in snow boots using an orange soccer ball because little green tractors moved all that snow off the field and carved pathways behind the bleachers.
A week after the 2010 signing day... No real surprises. Some of the colleges have made their 2010 recruiting class announcements, and some will be waiting until their normal admissions have been completed later in the spring. For the moment, I'll stick with my top 40 class rankings posted here in late December -- with the possible change of UNC rising to the top over PSU based on the performance of Crystal Dunn playing up on the U-20s and the increasing good press garnered by several others in this class.
Not really. As far as I can see, all of the highly ranked players are accounted for either by verbal commitments or actually signed letters. The 2010 class is essentially "put to bed" with only the possible exception of a few foreign players or maybe the occasional transfer. There may be an instance of a verbally committed player backing out and signing with a different college, but statistically, this would be rare.
OK... It's been over a month since any posts on this thread. UNC has added another recruit for 2010 who seems was on nobody's radar (Olivia Mbala from Toronto) but who has popped up on the Canadian U-20 pool. If I can find time this next week, I'll go back through the listings and revise my calculations on the 2010 class rankings.
2010 Class Rankings (3/21/10 version) There have been some significant changes since I took a swipe at this 3 months ago. I'll post my top 50 classes below. Some notes: FSU leapfrogged into a top 3 class with the addition of two foreign players and a solid transfer. Transfers boosted the strength of classes at UCSB, Oklahoma, Tulsa, Alabama, Indiana, Texas Tech, and Maryland. But, speaking of Maryland, even with picking up Rachel Lamarre from PSU, that still only leaves them with a 2-player class. My ranking system doesn't credit classes with less than 3 players, so Md ends up with a 4.67 score placing them in a tie for 60th place. The same small class issue also effects Mass, Tenn, Texas, and TAMU. So, with the caveats from last December (this is (1) for fun, (2) only based on numbers, and (3) is certainly subjective). Your opinion may differ and be correct. Here goes: (Scale: 10=top possible, 5=average DI class) 1. 9.45 UNC 2. 9.02 Cal 9.02 FSU 4. 8.92 ND 5. 8.87 PSU 6. 8.83 UCLA 7. 8.55 Mich 8. 8.50 Stanford 9. 8.40 Georgia 10. 8.35 Wake Forest 11. 8.25 Santa Clara 12. 8.12 Portland 13. 8.08 Duke 14. 8.05 Oklahoma 15. 7.87 Arizona 7.87 South Carolina 7.87 USC 18. 7.77 Auburn 7.77 Washington 7.77 UCSB 21. 7.68 Louisville 22. 7.50 LSU 23. 7.43 Wisconsin 24. 7.10 Ohio State 25. 7.05 Florida 7.05 Memphis 27. 7.00 Missouri 7.00 Northwestern 29. 6.72 ASU 6.72 SMU 31. 6.67 MSU 32. 6.43 BC 33. 6.38 Clemson 6.38 Oregon State 35. 6.33 Va Tech 6.33 WVa 6.33 Conn 38. 6.30 Alabama 39. 6.25 UNLV 40. 6.20 Virginia 41. 6.15 Marquette 6.15 Nebraska 43. 6.10 Indiana 44. 6.05 James Madison 45. 6.00 Washington State 46. 5.67 LaSalle 5.67 St Johns 5.67 Stony Brook 49. 5.33 Georgetown 5.33 Kentucky 5.33 Marshall 5.33 UNC-G Way too close to distinguish: In the 50s: Yale, Willanova, UW-Milwaukee, Texas Tech, Pitt, Maine, IPFW, Illinois, Dartmouth, Columbia, In the 60s: Maryland, St Marys, Texas, Tulsa, TAMU, Iowa, Colorado, George Mason, Holy Cross, Johns Hopkins
Aww, the formatting made the above post hard to read. Here's another version that has better readability. (See notes above) 2010 Class Rankings (3/21/10 version) 1. 9.45 UNC 2. 9.02 Cal, FSU 4. 8.92 ND 5. 8.87 PSU 6. 8.83 UCLA 7. 8.55 Mich 8. 8.50 Stanford 9. 8.40 Georgia 10. 8.35 Wake Forest 11. 8.25 Santa Clara 12. 8.12 Portland 13. 8.08 Duke 14. 8.05 Oklahoma 15. 7.87 Arizona, South Carolina, USC 18. 7.77 Auburn, Washington, UCSB 21. 7.68 Louisville 22. 7.50 LSU 23. 7.43 Wisconsin 24. 7.10 Ohio State 25. 7.05 Florida, Memphis 27. 7.00 Missouri, Northwestern 29. 6.72 ASU, SMU 31. 6.67 MSU 32. 6.43 BC 33. 6.38 Clemson, Oregon State 35. 6.33 Va Tech, WVa, Conn 38. 6.30 Alabama 39. 6.25 UNLV 40. 6.20 Virginia 41. 6.15 Marquette, Nebraska 43. 6.10 Indiana 44. 6.05 James Madison 45. 6.00 Washington State 46. 5.67 LaSalle, St Johns, Stony Brook 49. 5.33 Georgetown, Kentucky, Marshall, UNC-G Way too close to distinguish: In the 50s: Yale, Villanova, UW-Milwaukee, Texas Tech, Pitt, Maine, IPFW, Loyola Marymout, Illinois, Dartmouth, Columbia, In the 60s: Maryland, St Marys, Texas, Tulsa, TAMU, Iowa, Colorado, George Mason, Holy Cross, Johns Hopkins
It seems worth adding the (below) discussion from another thread as a further "disclaimer" to the recruiting ratings. I don't think that anyone disagrees that recruiting class rankings and especially comparative individual player rankings are, as you say, a "beauty contest." We indeed all do know that. And we can easily cite specific examples of development where the unnoticed Cinderella became the star and the super star of the U-17s faded to the bench in her college career. BUT, the rub is that there is also validity in the recruiting process as well. We know this too. We know that there is real correlation between past performance and future production. It is a statistical fact that, over a four-year period, the higher rated recruiting classes in general have produced the college winners club. (Then we can get into the "who does more with less" discussions such as recently occurred in another thread.) So.... the fan interest in recruiting is strong, as all of us know its critical importance for our favorite college team. At the same time, however, we are quick to point out how unfair and prejudicial the "beauty contest" is. Both are true.
LAST 2010 RANKINGS Since practice has already started for the 2010 season, may we presume that the 2010 recruiting is all finished? Below is my final iteration of the 2010 class rankings. (Again MANY thanks to cbg's work!) I've made some changes, although it is substantially the same as in March. I've decided to include transfers as part of this calculation, which has made a few differences (most notably adding Charney Burk to UCLA inched them past Penn State.) Also, I had to correct FSU substantially, as last March I mistook the strength of a foreign player. I've also tried to be more nuanced in assigning player strength. (More notes following the list.) As always, this is only an exercise based on my best estimate of individual players, the vast majority of which I have never seen. FWIW, my numbers have me agreeing with cbg on 9 of the top 10 and 22 of the top 25 classes, although the order changes. 1. (9.99) North Carolina 2. (9.44) UCLA 3. (9.37) Penn State 4. (8.68) CAL 5. (8.59) Wake Forest 6. (8.47) Stanford 7. (8.39) Georgia 8. (8.35) Michigan 9. (8.31) Duke 10. (8.26) Notre Dame 11. (8.18) Portland 12. (8.15) Santa Clara 13. (8.13) Auburn 14. (8.07) Arizona 15. (8.03) Louisville 16. (8.00) Wisconsin 17. (7.87) USC 18. (7.76) FSU 19. (7.70) Oklahoma 20. (7.60) LSU 21. (7.43) Florida 22. (7.36) Clemson 23. (7.21) Washington St 24. (7.10) Ohio State 25. (7.06) Boston College 26. (7.01) Northwestern, UCSB 28. (6.93) UNLV, UVA 30. (6.87) Oregon St 31. (6.77) Memphis, SMU, WVA 33. (6.70) Missouri 34. (6.67) Conn, MSU, Va Tech 37. (6.57) S. Carolina 38. (6.37) Kentucky 39. (6.33) Alabama 40. (6.20) Indiana, Marquette, Nebraska 43. (6.11) James Madison 44. (6.10) Villanova 45. (6.08) Stony Brook 46. (6.01) St Johns 47. (6.00) Georgetown, Marshal, Yale 50. (5.67) Iowa, TAMU Notes: My ranking system heavily weights the top three players in a class. This is because I am convinced that only in very rare instances do more than three players from the same class make a dominating team-changing contribution. Statistically, of the approximately 320 D-I women's programs on my 1 to 10 class strength scale, I estimate the mean to be about 3.1 with the top quartile scoring from about 5.0 up. I expect that as the talent pool grows, both of these scores will rise. While the top three classes are close, there is a gap to #4 and a more-or-less steady progression down the list. For practical purposes classes within a few ranks of each other are indistinguishable. Wake Forest really surprised me, but every time I looked at the players, their top three were very strong with some other recruits good enough to deserve a top 5 raking. A player on the U-17 WC qualifying team, 2 additional players on the U-18 Youth National team traveling to Spain, a Region I ODP player, an ESP camp participant, plus 5 more from solid club backgrounds, -what's not to like? While I am used to seeing Stanford in the top 3 for the past few years (and again next year) in 2010 the Card signed lots of national pool experience, but apparently only one player who actually traveled with a youth national team. Still, enough strength to rank #6, for which about 300 other D-1 programs would kill! UNC is the top dog in 2010. This class strength may rival the 2006 class. Over the past 5years UCLA has been on average the top recruiting machine (topping UNC and Stanford) and this year they are #2. Penn State is once again near the top with quality players at #3. California comes in at #4 with a large and very talented class. Transfers helped UCLA, TAMU, Oklahoma, Villanova, Indiana, and Kentucky. (TAMU was penalized in my system by a very small class. The actual quality of 2 of the 3 players is very high. They'll join a ton of talent!)) Good luck to all!
Rankings look pretty good. UNC, UCLA and Penn State have some serious top talent listed. Also, your analysis on Wake Forest seems solid AND that doesn't account for two very good transfers on their website roster....they could surpass Cal. It seems there are some quality transfers around the country at a bunch of programs. The international connection could vault FSU to any position higher.
No, DM, I did not factor this transfer in. I didn't have the time to scan all of the individual websites, so I relied on cbg's summary of transfers of which he has about 85 listed, AC not being one of them Yes, this addition would significantly change Florida's class strength under my system giving them a score of 8.20 & bouncing them up to the 11th spot on my listing. And, G4A4, the same is true about any transfers to WFU. They very well could top Cal using my numbers system. (Who are they?) However, bear in mind that this statistical exercise is only as good as the data I'm using and has a lot of subjectivity to it. And, Cal or others may have players that have slipped my notice too. As I said, for practical purposes, classes (perhaps + or - 0.5 in my calculations) are indistinguishable on the field most days. But it's fun, and does provide a general picture of where the talent has been corralled.
Looks like Caralee Keppler from West Virginia and India Winford from Charlotte. Hmm, very interesting. Wake Forest is definitely going to be discounted by a lot of people just based on the sheer amount talent they have lost from last season. That could prove to be a mistake. Same goes for UNC, but then again nobody ever overlooks them. FSU I thought would have a stronger class.
Edwards was the only starter lost from last season, and the injuries to McCarty and Price were unforeseen. On paper the class is not top notch but the needs at the time of recruitment were filled. Furthmore UNC is the only school that can year in and year out get the best talent in the country, which is what ya get with over 20 national titles .
FINAL FINAL 2010 I've finally got around to making the two changes suggested by DemitriMaximoffX and Germans4Allies4 with regard to transfers into Florida and Wake Forest. This bumped their respective rankings up to #4 and #11 respectively. (Not that it should have made any difference, but WFU and Florida both had very good seasons this year!) The revised top 11 for 2010 is as follows (see post of 8/4 for the remaining rankings which are unchanged except for the movement of teams 11 thru 20 to accommodate Florida's bump.) 1. (9.99) North Carolina 2. (9.44) UCLA 3. (9.37) Penn State 4. (8.82) Wake Forest 5. (8.73) California 6. (8.47) Stanford 7. (8.39) Georgia 8. (8.35) Michigan 9. (8.31) Duke 10. (8.26) Notre Dame 11. (8.20) Florida Note to Administrator..... The 2012 Recruiting thread might be substituted for this 2010 thread on the sticky position.... now past its shelf date?