Two games remaining... Group A Barcelona 10 .... hm v Lever, @ Newcastle Inter........ 7 .... hm v Newcastle, @ Leverkusen Newcastle. 6 .... @ Inter, hm v. Barca Leverkusen 0 .... @ Barca, hm v. Inter Leverkusen is eliminated. Wins by Barca and Inter in their next game clinches advancement for both -- in fact a win by Barca clinches 1st place. However, if Newcastle can continue at their current form and get a win at Inter, they'll stand a good chance of making it through with a win at home v. Barca in their last game. Group B Ajax......... 6 .... hm v Valencia, @ Roma Arsenal..... 6 .... hm v Roma, @ Valencia Valencia.... 5 .... @ Ajax, hm v. Arsenal Roma........ 4 .... @ Arsenal, hm v. Ajax This one is TOTALLY wide open with anyone capable of going through. Personally, I think Ajax and Arse will survive. Group C Milan....... 12 .... @ Madrid, hm v. Dortmund Madrid...... 5 .... hm v. Milan, @ Moscow Dortmund.. 4 .... hm v. Moscow, @ Milan Moscow.... 1 .... @ Dortmund, hm v. Madrid Milan is already through as group champion. Moscow is still in barely, but not realistically. Personally, I think Madrid has toughest road having to play Milan and having to go to Moscow. Madrid should be able to beat Milan because Milan shouldn't care of they win or not. But if they slip up and lose or draw to Milan, look for Dortmund to eliminate the defending champs. Group D Man United 12 .... hm v. Basel, @ Deportivo Juventus.... 4 .... hm v. Deportivo, @ Basel Deportivo... 4 .... @ Juventus, hm v. ManU Basel......... 3 .... @ ManU, hm v. Juventus ManU is already through as group champion. Everyone else is still in it. Look for Juve to knock out Deportivo in the next game and Basel to knock them out in the last game to take the 2nd spot.
To be quite honest... I'm afraid Ajax killed itsself in the 2nd half against Arsenal. Ajax played a defensive game, and that's allright when you're up against better competition, especially as dangerous as Arsenal have proven to be. But in the 2nd half Arsenal was asleep and Ajax should have taken advantage of that. We should have won. Beating Valencia at home will be incredibly hard. On one hand I'm proud of what the team has accomplished. On the other hand when we're this close we should make it through. How on earth could we give away a (undeserved) 0-1 lead at Valencia i the 92nd minute? If we go out we only have ourselves to blame. Just like we almost shot ourselves in the foot in the first round. That time we were lucky to get some help from Rosenborg. But that luck ends somewhere. So I'm a bit sceptical about our chances.
I understand what you're saying about Ajax. But here's my thinking... If you look at Valencia vs. Roma vs. Ajax and the games remaining -- in particular who each of them plays at home... Valencia has the toughest home game with Arsenal. Ajax has next toughest with Valencia. Roma probably has the easiest with Ajax. In this next round, you'd EXPECT Arsenal to be Roma at home. IF Ajax can also beat Valencia, then game over -- they're clinched. Assume that Ajax can only tie Valencia at home. Then it comes down to the final weekend with Ajax playing a Roma team that's already out of it and Valencia having to deal with Arsenal. I like Ajax's chances.
Valencia will not like having to defeat Arsenal in the last game at all, because Arsenal may need at least a draw and will field their strongest team. Basically Arsenal have the easiest job, 9 points may be enough whereas Ajax and Valencia will effectivly knock the other out with a win.