CL Predictions League - Matchday 6

Tue, Dec 7
Arsenal v. Rosenborg
Panathinaikos v. PSV
Celtic v. AC Milan
Shaktar v. Barcelona
Internazionale v. Anderlecht
Valencia v. Werder Bremen
Porto v. Chelsea
PSG v. CSKA Moskva

Wed, Dec 8
Deportivo v. Monaco
Liverpool v. Olympiacos
Leverkusen v. Dynamo Kyiv
AS Roma v. Real Madrid
Ajax v. Bayern Munich
M. Tel Aviv v. Juventus
Fenerbahçe v. Man. United
Lyon v. Sparta


NOTE: I'm back -- the Matchday 5 results are now posted in its thread.

 

I thought I'd post a little info about the status of things. First of all, some overall comments.

1) The group winners cannot be drawn against one another in the next round, so there is some incentive to win the group as opposed to just qualifying for the next round.
2) Third place advances to the UEFA Cup, so that matters too.
3) When two teams are tied for any position, head to head rules first - results, goal differential, then away goals. If still tied on those three head to head criteria, then overall goal differential and overall goals scored are the next criteria. If still tied after that, the team with the higher UEFA Coefficient takes the spot.

Tue, Dec 7
Group E
PSV - 10 pts
Arsenal - 7 pts
Panathinaikos - 6 pts
Rosenborg - 2 pts

Arsenal v. Rosenborg
Panathinaikos v. PSV

Rosenborg is out.

Possible scenarios...
1) PSV win, Panathinaikos lose, Arsenal win - PSV wins group, Arsenal advances, Pan. to UEFA Cup.
2) PSV draw, Panathinaikos draw, Arsenal win - PSV wins group, Arsenal advances, Pan. to UEFA Cup.
3) PSV lose, Panathinaikos win, Arsenal win - Arsenal wins group, PSV advances, Pan. to UEFA Cup.
4) PSV win, Panathinaikos lose, Arsenal draw - PSV wins group, Arsenal advances, Pan. to UEFA Cup.
5) PSV draw, Panathinaikos draw, Arsenal draw - PSV wins group, Arsenal advances, Pan. to UEFA Cup.
6) PSV lose, Panathinaikos win, Arsenal draw - PSV wins group, Pan. advances, Arsenal to UEFA Cup.
7) PSV win, Panathinaikos lose, Arsenal lose - PSV wins group, Arsenal advances, Pan. to UEFA Cup.
8) PSV draw, Panathinaikos draw, Arsenal lose - PSV wins group, Arsenal and Pan. are level on points, Arsenal advances on away goals, Pan. to UEFA Cup.
9) PSV lose, Panathinaikos win, Arsenal lose - PSV wins group, Pan. advances, Arsenal to UEFA Cup.


Group F
AC Milan - 12 pts
Barcelona - 10 pts
Celtic - 4 pts
Shaktar - 3 pts

Celtic v. AC Milan
Shaktar v. Barcelona

This group is the only one where EVERYONE is still playing for something.

AC Milan and Barcelona are playing for the group win. Barcelona can only take the top spot with a win combined with an AC Milan loss. With an AC Milan draw and Barcelona win, they are level on points. AC Milan would still be group winners on the away goals tiebreaker.

Celtic & Shaktar are playing for the UEFA Cup spot. Shaktar gets the spot with a win combined with a Celtic draw or loss and also with a draw combined with a Celtic loss. All other scenarios see Celtic getting the spot.

Group G
Inter - 11 pts
Werder Bremen - 10 pts
Valencia - 7 pts
Anderlecht - 0 pts

Internazionale v. Anderlecht
Valencia v. Werder Bremen

Anderlecht is out.

Possible Scenarios...
1) Valencia win, Bremen lose, Inter win/lose/draw - Inter wins group. If Valencia wins 1-0 or by 2+ goals, they advance & Bremen go to UEFA Cup. With any 1 goal scores other than 1-0, Bremen advances and Valencia goes to UEFA Cup.
2) Valencia draw, Bremen draw, Inter win/lose/draw - Inter wins group, Bremen advances, Valencia to UEFA Cup.
3) Valencia lose, Bremen win, Inter win - Inter wins group, Bremen advances, Valencia to UEFA Cup.
4) Valencia lose, Bremen win, Inter lose/draw - Bremen wins group, Inter advances, Valencia to UEFA Cup.

Group H
Chelsea - 13 pts
PSG - 5 pts
Porto - 5 pts
CSKA Moscow - 4 pts

Porto v. Chelsea
PSG v. CSKA Moskva

Chelsea has won the group -- and Mourinho has publicly stated that they have "earned the right to rest". That tells me he is going to play a 2nd or 3rd tier side -- thus giving his old club a good shot to win and advance.

Possible scenarios...
1) PSG win, Moscow lose, Porto win - PSG advances, Porto to UEFA Cup, Moscow out.
2) PSG draw, Moscow draw, Porto win - Porto advances, PSG to UEFA Cup, Moscow out.
3) PSG lose, Moscow win, Porto win - Porto advances, Moscow to UEFA Cup, PSG out.
4) PSG win, Moscow lose, Porto draw - PSG advances, Porto to UEFA Cup, Moscow out.
5) PSG draw, Moscow draw, Porto draw - PSG advances, Porto to UEFA Cup, Moscow out.
6) PSG lose, Moscow win, Porto draw - Moscow advances, Porto to UEFA Cup, PSG out.
7) PSG win, Moscow lose, Porto lose - PSG advances, Porto to UEFA Cup, Moscow out.
8) PSG draw, Moscow draw, Porto lose - PSG advances, Porto to UEFA Cup, Moscow out.
9) PSG lose, Moscow win, Porto lose - Moscow advances, PSG to UEFA Cup, Porto out.

Wed, Dec 8
Group A
Olympiakos - 10
Monaco - 9
Liverpool - 7
Deportivo - 2
Deportivo v. Monaco
Liverpool v. Olympiacos

Deportivo is out.

Possible scenarios --
1) Olympiakos win, Liverpool lose, Moacao win - Olympiakos wins group, Monaco advances, Liverpool to UEFA Cup.
2) Olympiakos draw, Liverpool draw, Monaco win - Monaco wins group, Olympiakos advances, Liverpool to UEFA Cup.
3) Olympiakos lose, Liverpool win, Monaco win - Monaco wins group. If Liverpool wins by 1, Olympiakos advances, Liverpool to UEFA Cup (a 2-1 or higher 1 goal game gives Olympiakos the away goal tiebreaker -- a 1-0 loss drops all the way to UEFA Coefficient for the tiebreaker and Olympiakos is 16th, Liverpool 23rd). If Liverpool wins by 2 or more, Liverpool advances and Olympiakos goes to UEFA Cup.
4) Olympiakos win, Liverpool lose, Monaco draw - Olympiakos wins group, Monaco advances, Liverpool to UEFA Cup.
5) Olympiakos draw, Liverpool draw, Monaco draw - Olympiakos wins group, Monaco advances, Liverpool to UEFA Cup.
6) Olympiakos lose, Liverpool win, Monaco draw - All finish on 10 pts. Head to head, all have 6 pts. In goal differential, Monaco is/would be -1. Liverpool is +2 and would be at +3 or higher. Olympiakos is +1 and would be 0 or lower. Therefore, Liverpool wins the group. After that, you start over with Monaco & Olympiakos for the tiebreaker to see who advances and Olympiakos advances on their away goal. Monaco to UEFA Cup.
7) Olympiakos win, Liverpool lose, Monaco lose - Olympiakos wins group, Monaco advances, Liverpool to UEFA Cup.
8) Olympiakos draw, Liverpool draw, Monaco lose - Olympiakos wins group, Monaco advances, Liverpool to UEFA Cup.
9) Olympiakos lose, Liverpool win, Monaco lose - See Olympiakos/Liverpool tiebreaker in scenario 3. If Liverpool wins by 1, Olympiakos wins group, Liverpool advances. If Liverpool wins by 2 or more, Liverpool wins group and Olympiakos advances. Monaco goes to UEFA Cup.

Group B
Dynamo Kyiv - 10 pts
Leverkusen - 8 pts
Real Madrid - 8 pts
AS Roma - 1 pt

Leverkusen v. Dynamo Kyiv
AS Roma v. Real Madrid

AS Roma is eliminated.

Possible scenarios --
1) Leverkusen win, Dynamo lose, Madrid win -- Leverkusen win group, Real Madrid advance, Dynamo to UEFA Cup.
2) Leverkusen draw, Dynamo draw, Madrid win -- Real Madrid win group, Dynamo advances, Leverkusen to UEFA Cup.
3) Leverkusen lose, Dynamo win, Madrid win -- Dynamo win group, Real Madrid advance, Leverkusen to UEFA Cup.
4) Leverkusen win, Dynamo lose, Madrid draw -- Leverkusen win group, Dynamo advance, Real Madrid to UEFA Cup.
5) Leverkusen draw, Dynamo draw, Madrid draw -- Dynamo win group, Leverkusen advances, Real Madrid to UEFA Cup.
6) Leverkusen lose, Dynamo win, Madrid draw -- Dynamo win group, Real Madrid advance, Leverkusen to UEFA Cup.
7) Leverkusen win, Dynamo lose, Madrid lose -- Leverkusen win group, Dynamo advance, Real Madrid to UEFA Cup.
8) Leverkusen draw, Dynamo draw, Madrid lose -- Dynamo win group, Leverkusen advances, Real Madrid to UEFA Cup.
9) Leverkusen lose, Dynamo win, Madrid lose -- Dynamo win group, Leverkusen advance, Real Madrid to UEFA Cup.

Group C
Juventus - 15 pts
Bayern Munich - 9 pts
Ajax - 3 pts
M. Tel Aviv - 3 pts

Ajax v. Bayern Munich
M. Tel Aviv v. Juventus

Juventus has won the group.
Bayern Munich has clinched advancing.

If Ajax & M. Tel Aviv both win, both lose or both draw, Ajax goes to UEFA Cup and M. Tel Aviv is out. If Ajax lose or draw with M. Tel Aviv win or Ajax lose with M. Tel Aviv draw, then M. Tel Aviv goes to UEFA Cup and Ajax is out.

Group D
Man. United - 11 pts
Lyon - 10 pts
Fenerbache - 6 pts
Sparta - 1 pt

Fenerbahçe v. Man. United
Lyon v. Sparta

Sparta is out, Fenerbache is going to the UEFA Cup.

If Man United draw or lose and Lyon wins, Lyon wins the group and Man. United advance in second. In all other scenarios, Man United wins the group.


Overall, I am surprised at the number of teams that still are playing for something. Even with so many teams having already clinched advancement, they are still playing for the group win and advantageous seeding in the first knockout round.

 

Tue, Dec 7
Arsenal v. Rosenborg 2-0
Panathinaikos v. PSV 1-1
Celtic v. AC Milan 0-0
Shaktar v. Barcelona 0-2
Internazionale v. Anderlecht 2-0
Valencia v. Werder Bremen 1-1
Porto v. Chelsea 2-1
PSG v. CSKA Moskva 2-0

Wed, Dec 8
Deportivo v. Monaco 1-1
Liverpool v. Olympiacos 2-0
Leverkusen v. Dynamo Kyiv 2-0
AS Roma v. Real Madrid 0-3
Ajax v. Bayern Munich 2-0
M. Tel Aviv v. Juventus 1-2
Fenerbahçe v. Man. United 1-2
Lyon v. Sparta 2-0