I thought I'd just contradict much of what and I and many others have said the past week. Nobody is out! Lazio lost ALL their first 3 games a few years ago, but nearly qualified because they were minutes from winning all their final 3 games and were very close. So in theory, even a team that lost all it's games the past 3 weeks could still qualify if they win the next 3 with a decent goal difference. Unlikely but true! Spartak have no chance because they have to play Valencia away, but Newcastle could possibly. They are definitely capable of beating Juventus at home. If they can somehow beat Feyenoord away, they will have a huge chance of qualifying with an easy win at home to Kiev who never win away. I don't think it will happen, but it's possible.
Even if Newcastle run the table, I think it's likely that Kyiv can beat Feyenoord at home at the same time, leaving them with 7 pts. If they then get a home win to Juventus (not likely, perhaps, but more plausible than Newcastle based on the 3 games so far) to move to 10 pts, then even with a Newcastle win on the final day, they'd have to hope that Juventus can't win at home to an already eliminated Feyenoord. In other words, Newcastle do not control their own destiny--even with 3 wins, they might not get in.
Yes, it's very unlikely, but possible because they only have 1 away game left, admittidly a tough one. Bayern however have to win 2 away games to very very tough teams, which I actually think is tougher than what Newcaslte have to do! Definitely worth a fiver on them both though.
PL, you're exactly right. I posted some info on the standings and mentioned some teams that were virtually qualified (i.e., either need only a point or need a win against 1 of 2 teams). What I figured out but failed to mention was that nobody had yet been eliminated -- at least mathematically. You documented how Newcastle could conceivably still make it. Here's how Spartak could... Granted it seems Spartak doesn't have a chance since they have yet to even score this year. But recognize that Spartak has never scored a goal on the road in CL history and the only home game they've had is against Valencia who is arguably playing the best ball in the world right now. It is NOT inconceivable that Spartak could win their next 2 games -- both home vs. Liverpool & Basle. If Liverpool stumbles at home vs. Valencia, then suddenly, Spartak has 6 points with Liverpool & Basle still on 4. Assume Spartak can't do anything against Valencia in their last game, it comes down to what happens with Liverpool's return to Basle. If they tie, they knock each other out. If someone win's, they knock the other and Spartak out.
It reminds me of Bayer last season. Juventus and Arsenal beat them 4-1, but 2 wins over Deportivo got them through because Deportivo beat the others. Bayer were last at this stage last year in the group. It's actually far from over because it depends which teams beat which.
Didn't Arsenal go thru with only 9 points as well...all from home wins? Lots of points to be played for yet and the results are notorius for being inconsistant at this stage.
Yes, last year they lost 5 of their 6 away games but were a minute from beating Bayer in the 2nd stage which cost them. They won every home game in both stages apart from the loss to Deportivo. Arsenal were proof that 3 wins can be enough.
Newcastle has next to zero hope. To get through they not only have to win all their games but they need the results of the other matches to break perfectly.