Just watched the Congress hearing about China at http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/testimony.asp?subnav=close The laundry list is pretty long: --Human Rights in China --One child policy and abortion --No democracy --No freedom --North Korea problem --Iran problem --Burma problem --Sudan problem --Africa problem --South America problem --Taiwan problem --Hong Kong problem --Tibet problem --Xingjiang problem --Pakistan problem etc. etc. The most impression is the frustration and helplessness. When Congressmen asked Asst. Secratary of State Department--If China did this, and that, what price they pay and what we can do? Then the State guy said that "We can do nothing, but we can urge, ... persude ..." Interesting.
That belongs to South Korea bashing. Oh, forget the first on the laundry list is the anti-sattalite test back in Jan. The conclusion is that China can say "Go take a hike!" when those Congressmen pounding their table. They have to get use to it.
I think we may now be better at recognizing the limits of our power. I don't know much about China; most of us don't. All of Asia was pretty much ignored during my 16+ years of school. They do have big problems over there, from what little I have heard and read.
I totally agree. Believe US-China relationship and how it evolves, is probably the biggest single factor for the future of the world. That is not the problem if many people don't really know China. The problem is that mainstream medias (in both sides), feed propaganda inaccuracies into normal people which makes people with a pre-defined mindset. These mindsets in both side will push for confrontation instead of consultation. A very simple example is about Tibet. For Americans, "Free Tibet" represents its moral concern about little people, but for Chinese, it remains them that West still try to take the country apart as a continuation of 1840. So anytime when Chinese saw that banner on the TV, the ultra-nationalist sentiment will just go a notch up. Making the matter worst, every such single issue will have much of Europe, Australia, Canada, Japan to rally behind USA, but have much of rest of the world to rally behind China. True. There are some problems over there, and most realted to dense population and environmental issue. But it wasn't as dark as what you read here. There are a LOT of issues in China, but call Beijing Olympics as "Genocide Olympics" is an insult to Chinese and especially the moral high grounds that Westerners though they have. I guess Chinese need to find 6M Jews to kill, or import 10M Africans as slave, before they can claim that kind of moral superiority.
Shaster, I've been following some of your posts about China for quite a while. You give me an impression of always giving rather objective opinions and being more or less neutral toward the Chinese. I'm from China, with China becoming a increasingly important world power and the Beijing Olympics and Taiwanese presidential election next year, it sure is interesting to talk about China these days. This is getting boring, don't you think? Different countries/cultures have different intepretations of Human Rights. As with a lot of other things, the US shouldn't coerce other countries to follow the US or the West's standards of human rights. China is doing fine. We Chinese citizens have enough human rights to enable us to live a comfortable live. Do we want religious sects releasing poisoneous gas in subway stations? Do we want psychos buying guns at will and spraying bullets in schools and colleges? No of course. Complete freedom will only breeds anarchy and chaos in society. see above. Imagine US having the same population as China and see if the resources can sustain it. "Doesn't matter if it's a black cat or a white cat, it's a good cat as long as it catches mice" Just look at Taiwan and tell me if democracy is 100% foolproof and good for the people. China is a single-party oligarchy run by technocrats, which is not necessary bad for developing a country like China is right now. Compare that to India, which is a full democracy but political opinions are too diversed and power too dispersed to get anything sizable done in terms of development. Democracy is China may be viable in 30 years when literacy rate hits 99%, but we don't need it right now. see human rights The Kim dynasty must end, no doubt about it, but I doubt conditions in NK is as bad as many Western media have portrayed. China and NK are allies, we didn't sent millions of our 'volunteers' to help the NKs fight the Korean War for nothing. You can bet Beijing is happy to see Washington sweating over this nuclear issue. The 6-party talk is a dead end because with Kim in charge anything NK said cannot be trusted, and the US needs to keep NK in the 'Axis of Evil' to feed the neocons and their war machines. It's interesting that none of these geo locations are very receptive of Americans and so the Congress just slab a label and call them a "problem" Re-unification in 20 years. 10 years or even sooner if KMT wins election next year. No, we don't care about what Americans think about this issue. Americans shouldn't be interfering with a country's own internal affairs in the first place. Remember, technically Taiwan is NOT a country. What problem? If they're talking about general election, it's not a problem, it will be done in the next few years. Shas, you said it in your post. Some people are more than happy to see China breaking up in pieces. When China expands its sphere of influence just outside its borders, the Americans immediately sees it as a "problem". When have China seen it as a problem when US exerts influence on Canada? Damn right they can do nothing, because in all likelihood it is none of their business. Better instead spend the energy on worrying about the loads of problems the US has on its on soil.
China's "peaceful rise" mentality is for real. I'm happy as long as neocons stop propaganding the crap that makes China look like a legit military threat. We don't even have to talk about something so distant in the past. How about those innocent protestors killed in Ivory Coast by the French military police? Hypocrites...
China is the biggest threat to the existing world order for sure. 1) China represents a major challenge to US hegemony on world affair. As a multipolar vs. unipolar world order, I am sure rest of the world, such as EU, Russia, India, Muslims, etc. are pretty much on China's side. 2) China also represents a major challenge on existing world order which was setup to benefit the West countries (North America, Big Part of Europe, Japan, Australia). There are many ways to resolve this challenge. One way is to contain China to curb its raising; other way is to make China to integrating with existing system to make her a responsible stakeholder. There are problems on 2nd option. First of all, China would not be a simple "rule-takers" to join the big boy club, but rather some degree of "rule-maker". Secondly, I personally is against China to become one of the big boy and just behave like a big one such as 20th Century USA, 19th Century Britain, or 18th Century France. If Chine becomes such one, why we need a strong China, from those weak and poor countries who being exploited for centuries? I would not want to see China following the step of Japan who adapted Western moral barbarism, aka, Social Darwanism. I rather see China to become a friendly and strong country without such superior morality as current Westeners foolishly feel they have. China doesn't need to 100% taking Western standard of human right, but it needs to improve on citizen right protection that are granted by its constitution. For example, protect private property, freedom of speech/press, limit government abuse, etc. Especially freedom of speech/press is indeed a big part of ancient Chinese civilization. Of course, come with freedom of speech/press there are also responsility of press. Just read a Hong Kong radio host complains that Hong Kong medias are too pro-China. WTF? China is your own country. Does he want those Hong Kong press pro-Britain, like South China Morning Post and bunch English publications? Actually, I perfer NO party system. For me, 2 parties like America, is just dividing any issues with a black/white simplicity and real political powers relay on interest groups anyway. China doesn't need the Liberial Democracy even after it has 100% literacy. I perfer a pan-intellects system that existed in China for couple thousand years. Since China is so diversify, we should treat it as that. It is maybe a good idea to have people's power in election on city and province level, but the central government should not go for election, rather consist by consensus out of all provinces. China is more like a unified EU, so it should be managed like an EU. Newcons want a regime change in North Korea that will results troubles for both China and South Korea. The best way for North Korea problem is to move it into a China-style reform and integrated it into a North-East Asia political/economic/security framework. Under this frame work, we can work on free trade zone in Russia, China, Two Koreas and Japan for an eventual peaceful Korean reunification. With the two presidential candidates for 2008 election, I think the risk of the conflict on Taiwan greatly reduced. Both candidates are more in consolidation mode with mainland China. Also US-Japan took "Taiwan issue" out of their military cooperation agreement, that will put Taiwan Independance into the toilet.
I'm going to china for a two week vacation. I'll report back. Here's the thing: 1) china is a threat to the US theory of itself as sole miltary and economic superpower. 2) china is both the largest potential market and largest manufacturer for US companies, which in case you haven't noticed, own our government. 3) china is still sortof communist, and theories about personal, religious, and economic freedom, as well as 'equal rights under the law' isn't too big there. 4) china owns the US. (1 trillion dollars, 10% of us debt is owned by china) So yeah, we can suggest and pressure. But one hiccup in the old China buying our bonds thing and our economy is TOAST. Of course, you try bringing a national of 1.3 billion people up to speed after years of communist rule, and see if you do any better.
[sarcasm] How do we know the Chinese aren't holding secret meetings like this, too? Something that reads: --American problem --N. Korea Problem --Taiwan Problem --Japan-Still-Not-Atoning-for-World-War-2 Problem --How-to-Cover-Up-They-Support-Sudan-Despite-the-Darfur-Crisis Problem --Why-Can't-They-Beat-Japan-in-Soccer Problem [/sarcasm]
Which part of China you will visit? Actually the key problem in Sino-American relationship is Taiwan. Move that out, there are no much interest conflicts between two countries. Much areas for cooperation. Five main interest groups: High Tech--democrats, pro-China (Microsoft, Google, Yahoo, Cisco, Intel, etc.) Labor Union--democrats, anti-China (American Job lost, Unfair trade) Trade Group--republican, pro-China (Wal-Mart, etc.) Wall Street--republican, pro-China (Paulson's guys) Defense industry--republican, anti-China (Rip American taxpayers off) You alos have no-business but influential anti-China group as republican conservative church goers, and demacrat liberal "right" activisits. No. All Chinese communists are banana commie. About 30%-50% will go to other currencies at the end of this year when China switches the economy to more on domastic demand. We will see a dollar drop but Saudi has too much money to fill the gap. US economy is much stronger than that, abeit need a recession to rip the extra paper FED printed off. Sometimes I do suprised by the resilience of Chinese government for its ability to dodge so many bullets.
LMAO. Actually one advantage of China is that the Central Government doesn't need to talk craps for short term elections, so they are pretty good to focus on long term policy and objectives. American problem and Taiwan problem is same problem. It Taiwan doesn't push for independance, then no damage done. There is always a chance in the future to talk and bargain. But if Taiwan sets the fire, China uses force, and USA/Japan intervene, you will see things very ugly. North Korea problem. No much problem there. Just need a little time for its open up. If little Kim goes too far, then bring him down. Otherwise, it will change like Vietnam. Japan WW2 problem is not China's problem. Not likely China will attack Japan in the future, but if Japan tried to start a new war, China always have few spare nukes can wipe Japan off. But I guess WW2 problem is more like few politicians' show and not represent views from majority of Japanese. Darfur problem is not China's problem but rather the bargains between African Union and Arab Union. As you know that China indeed has peacekeepers in South Sudan. What African Union and Arab Union don't want are peacekeepers from USA and UK who have other agenda in the bag. Egypt will be the first one to get pissed. For Darfur crisis to be resolved, you have to find both side willing to sign a peace deal which depends on how much Darfur rebels got paid. I do believe with all Saudi money there, that should not be a problem. LOL on soccer problem. China's record is not too bad against Japan. It really has problem to beat South Korea.
No, US is the biggest threat to the exisiting world order. Militarily China has historically been, and will always be, in a rather defensive mode. Militarily I don't see China posing a serious threat to US unless being provoked first (e.g. Taiwan declares independence and US 7th Fleet steps in to protect Taiwan), but rather I see Russia on the rise and a potential serious contender to US hegemony in the future. Russia's army is rising from the dead with oil money and the renewed nationalism, fueled by US being aggressive in Eastern Europe (i.e. anti-missle shields/systems in Poland/Czech), these are sparks that may cause US/Russia confrontation in the future. It's rather difficult to curb China's rising because of its economic status. China's rising should not be seen as a threat because like I said, China's "Peaceful Rise" stance is a real deal. China just passed a private property act recently. In terms of freedom of speech/pres. Again like I said, there should be balance between complete liberty and complete control. Anything that is a threat to national security and harmful to the people should be censored. But of course, some of the actions taken by Chinese government have been rather excessive (e.g. banning wikipedia). The situation in Hong Kong is quite sad. Even though HK is part of China, due to social and cultural differences many HK people do not feel they are part of China. There are quite a number of people that are anti-Mainland. Go to any Hong Kong discussion forum and you'll see pro and anti-Mainlanders slashing out on one another. Many of these anti-mainlanders are pro-Britain. However, with the ever closer integration between HK and Mainland, and with the closing of the gap between the two area's standards of living, anti-Mainland sentiments will soon be a thing in the past. I agree with the no party system and the pan-intellects system. In a way, the current Chinese government is already a pan-intellects system. Also, there is no much difference between a no-party system and a single-party system because representatives in both systems represent "The government" and no interest conflicts exist between parties. AFAIK, China is already planning to hold public elections on the lower levels (i.e. small cities and towns). NK already started Chinese-SAR-style reform back in '02 IIRC in a city near the Yalu river. Progress has been slow, but trade between China and NK has been rising steadily. South Korea proposed a federation-style reunification plan a few years back but NK turned it down. I think reunification is extremely difficult unless there is a complete political reform inside NK, which is highly unlikely with the Kim dynasty in charge. DPP is opportunistic. They know confrontation with mainland will do them no good. Reviving Taiwan's economy is up high in DPP's agenda, and the only way to do that is to have closer ties with mainland. I didn't realize that US-Japan took Taiwan Issue out of their agreement. What's the US/Japan rationale behind this change in stance? What's your view on who will win the presidential election? Right now the poll is about 58-42 in favour of Ma. It's a sizable gap but anything can happen between now and 08, and we know how cunning DPP can be when it comes to elections (i.e. the 2 bullets).
Economoic superpower, yes. Military superpower, no. China's stance is defensive unlike the US foreign policy. Current China is communist by name only. The more appropriate description should be 'socialism with Chinese characteristics'. China's standards of freedom and human rights are different from the West. It is a controlled society where harmful elements that threatens the well-being of the country and the people are banned. Chinese citizens generally enjoy a sufficient degree of freedom and most are satisfied about it.
The current world order was set to benefit West with USA as leader and EU as sidekick. Bush Admin's unilaterism may upset EU, but his 2nd term is much back the normal. The retreatment of Iraq is consensus between them, the argument is differ on the mean. One wants to war to resolve problems, one wants sanctions. But when they want to kill Serbs, they are in total agreement. China's military is in defensive posture strategically but they still can be offensive in tactic level. Anti-satt is a good example. I think China will only go military action on Taiwan, Pakistan, Burma, and Kazhakistan. For Russia, I don't think it will go that far. Its economy is too much depends on energy which can be hurt by Green tech revolution and EU boycott. It has more benefit to make friends with EU by split EU/USA than pushing EU/USA closer with its military might. Right now Missile defense is a big issue on them, but they can do payback on US by prolifration of weapons around the world. It may not happy if NATO keeps pounding on its door, but at least its action on Estonia is "understood" by EU. It is more like "let's make money with China economically, but using military alliance as hedging". The problem is that if the honeymoon on economics finish, like China-Japan/USA become competitors instead of complimentary, then trouble will raise. I would say all those in CCP's Propaganda Depts should go to hell. They even censored Premieir Wen Jiaobao's speech. Bastards. I am more concerned the lands being stealed from poor farmers which local government officals and developers are scumbags. Illegial land seisure always caused socail unrest in China in the history that started every dynasty fall. The following wars and land reforms always bloody but nessaery. We just had one in 1949 after CCP came in power. I would suggest Central Government go in harder on those bastards. If they causes unrest, the mobs will kill them anyway. Internet censor is rather stupid. More Chinese read the Western media about China freely, they will have more nationalist sentiments. I don't suprise at all. Read the history about India or Iran, you can find out exactly same thing. Many of British-educated, brainwashed Iranians help the CIA's coup, and more such Indians who undercut Nehru's policies. It took those countries probably 30-50 years to get rid of those suckers. But there are different in Hong Kong now--British is no more a world player so it looks more cooperate with China, and also Hong Kong is no longer making money by presenting Western interests in East. Japan is a single-party system if you ignore those other decoration-purpose small parties. I studied Chinese history very deeply, and haven't figure out how to resolve the relationship between Center and Local. If China doesn't have a system as it has now, we probably would not see a unified China today, rather a strings of small countries like Europe. Now since 1900, at least a Chinese identity and Nationalism can serve as a purpose for common goal, but I still feel Chinese as whole still not share some identity. For example, even today only about 50% of Chinese can speak Mandarin. Maybe need more national building on this. North Korea will only talk about unfication after US troops pull off. You can say them as nuts, but in many Korean mind, Kim family at least is patrotic and fough hard against Japanese. One reason to understand why so much anti-American sentiment in South Korea--whoever US backed in the power there were those Korean Japanese-collobrators who just started change their names from Japanese back to Korean around time. DPP is trying to do its best to grasp on power for sure. The reason US/Japan to take Taiwan issue out because they fear that they send a wrong signal to Taiwan, and also a little lose confidence on its ability to intervene. Ma's precondition on the talk are unreal, in contrast DDP's Shieh is much pragmatic. But in the big picture, both will improve the relationship with mainland and a some good steps will be taken. No war worry after this development.
Personally, I think China deserves a rightful place at the forefront in the world order. The problem the United States is currently having is that after 40 years of a two-power world (US and USSR), it enjoys its status as the "sole remaining superpower." However, with economic advances in China and India, and the advancement of the European Union, there are new spheres of influence. Our own boondoggle in Iraq has made Iran a major player in the middle east. Since this is a China bashing thread, I must say that the Chinese have for too long been insular, in that their accomplishments culturally, scientifically, and economically have been lost to the outside world due to the cultures tendency towards isolationism, and lack of expansion. Other than that, I feel that the influence of China on the world will be a mostly positive one, as long as Taiwan is pretty much left alone as part of the two-state system. Specifically, I feel that the chinese tendency towards communal action, combined with a new openness to technology and new ideas, and mizing in some western ideals of individualism, human rights, and environmental protection can't hurt. The conflict comes from an American establishment that is far too comfortable with being the only game in town realizing that China and its culture are going to gain an influence on the world finally proportaional to its population. And I'm going to Beijing, Xian, Guilin, Long Shen, Suzhou, Tongli, and Shanghai on my tourist-driven, bus full of caucasians tour of China. It's the reverse of what I see at work in downtown DC every day
Personally, I don't want a China acts like USA. Imagine in the future, the superpower China mandates every country to adapt "Confusiancracy", or they will send the mighty troops to install it? Most countries, Korea, Japan, Vietnam, etc., were adapted Chinese civilisation by admiration, not by force. (To bad Tang Empire refused to let Tibetans to do that.) Think about a salesman comes to your house and recommend a water system in his home. When you said, "no thanks", then he just pulls out a gun and shot you at your face? That is what US doing in Iraq now, and trying on other countries. I feel a more reginal framework will be in place like EU. Like South-east Asia, South Asia, Arab League, African Union, or South America League, etc. The Chinese culture is too comfortable to satisify people so they are no need to expand, especially when it feels the center of the world status. But I wouldn't call it "lack of expansion". Most of people lives in South-east Asia are migrations out of China due to this expansion. As matter of fact, the current size of China is a result of expansion abeit most done by Mongols and Manchus before they were sinicized. But if you talk about a Russian style or European colonization of Americas, those were after 1400 when population expansion took a big step. Too bad that time Ming China didn't have the strong emperiors like Han, Tang, Yuan and Qing. Otherwise, with Zheng He's fleet, they can overrun anyone. Taiwan will be integrated into China in the future. It did once back when Ming loyalists hold Taiwan against Qing China. I think there are some interesting things about China. First, they don't think use force can resolve everything. At best, the force is a temp solution. Talk, exchange, and negoitaion are best way to go in the world affair. Second, China used to lead the world in technology and new ideas, so they probably can catch up in that front with the open communication to outside world. Third, Chinese is probably very emphysis on individualism, many of them criticize themselves are not as collective as Japanese, etc. I do agree Chinese culture lacks human rights concern at all, such as treasures human life. That is something Chinese need to learn from others. Environment protection is actually very strong on ordinary Chinese mind but derailed by current "get rich is glorious" madness. In the end, Chinese know that is the only way they can survive with its population--how to live with enviornment. Also with the economic interests and benefits that favors the current establishment. I am keeping my eye on China-Afircan relationship and hope normal folks there can be benefited. Long Shen? I have no idea. But I feel Suzhou and Tongli are too similiar. Beijing is too quick to become Hong Kong II, so try to see whatever they haven't destroy. Shanghai is too Western-style to me. When you are in Guilin, try going Yangshuo. If you have chance, Yuanan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Tibet, Xinjiang are good place to visit.
Bush's unilateralism is digging a grave for himself. Just look at Iraq, it's becoming another Vietnam. Well, I tend to think anti-satt to be more defensive than offensive. I think part of it's goal is to distrupt US communication capabilities if USN comes in after Taiwan declares independence. Anti-satt's technology can also be applied to anti-ballistic missles. I'm not sure if Green tech revolution will have that much effect on Russia, at least in the next couple of decades. Green tech revolution is slower than many people have thought. Oil reserves are still plentiful, and despite guys like Al Gore signalling dangers of green house gases most people still don't give a damn about it. Which speech are you talking about, the one he made recently in the Japanese Legislature? It's all about control. The last thing the government wants is lost of control. If there is no censorship almost everyone would be bashing the CCP on the Internet, that would lead to its downfall. Agree that if China's system is not like it is now, we won't see a unified China. The pre-1949 Republic of China showed us that. I'm sure you know, China has 55 minority groups, and hundreds of different spoken dialects of Chinese, of which many are mutually unintelligible (e.g. Cantonese vs. Shanghainese). In a sense China is like the EU with many ethnic groups and languages. How else can you keep a country like this together without a strong, heavy-hand central government? 50% sounds right, but that figure is bound to rise. Nearly all people under age of 50 in the big cities can speak Mandarin fluently, and mandarin learning in all primary schools has been made mandatory for decades. When the old generations died off there will be fewer people that do not understand Mandarin.
Menroe Doctrine said--"Americas are for Americans". If you are not USA, you are not allowed to do anything in USA's backyard. If that is not good to poor Southerners, too bad.
People always forget what Clinton's policy in Balkan. That is unilateralism too. American foreign policy is always--multilateralism if we can, unilateralism if we must. The only problem with Bush is that they drop the "must". But at his 2nd term, it is back to old way. So you saw Germany already kiss and make up, just wait to see France does same. I think Warning shot over Taiwan is only one of the objective. Chinese military already developed several effectives way to sank aircraft carriers even without the disruption of space. There is a general agreement among Chinese strategists--if you don't show adaquate brinksmanship, you may encourage American agressiveness. This is clear a non-traditional Chinese doctrine. Chinese doctrine calls to hide your true strength but now they feel if they do that, it may cause US to make a miscalculate move which may results something both countries undesired. So this anti-satt technology is aiming to hit the Archiles' Heel of US military to force a cautious approach from civilian leaders of US government. It may not happen in USA where Big Oils rule the country and where the Ethanol is used as an addictive instead of a substituion. But others will go for it. The press conference post-Chinese People's Congress. I don't agree with the way Premier Wen praised the democracy like a silver bullet, but still for Propaganda Depts. to silence him... Disagree. 81% of Chinese are satisfying with their life now. Not mean that they don't think CCP has a LOT of cleaning job to do, but at least the country is moving into a right path. Even a 13% of unsatifying people counts about 200M, so a LOT of works need to do. Bring down a government instead of cleaning it up, is probably a unwise choice. You can. First Emperor of Qin was successfully unified China by inforcing a common writing system that was decoupled from oral languages to adapt the diversification of Chinese people. If he tried to apply same oral language, I doubt the system can be built. Emperor Wen of Sui first implemented Big Exam system to ensure social mobility of the society that reward people by the merit. Emperor Khubilai divided China into provinces where no natural obsticles can make one of them becoming isolated. What Chinese need to do today is to build up a strong and common identity that includes 56 different people, using grass-root fundation to build certain autonomy into provinces to ensure people to govern themselves, but also install a certain degree of Central authority to check the autonomy not become independance. Tough job to do, but heck Chinese invented so many things in the history, they probably are capable to do this. True. But we also need to understand the diversity is major reason why China has such great civlilization.
Yeah but what exactly is China doing with South America. All i know is that Chile has a free trade agreement with them but it cant be that.