Chances a draft pick will stick somewhere

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by lurking, Apr 23, 2003.

  1. lurking

    lurking Member+

    Feb 9, 2002
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ok, Im sure Ive made mistakes here, but this was a once through of the list of MLS draft picks, trying to get an idea of their success rate. If you see some obvious errors or oversites point em out, curious what the expected success rate in the superdraft is in terms of identifying an MLS quality player.

    Picks 1-10 (32/70=45.7%):
    1. 1998 (Cullen) 1999 (Moore) 2001 (Carrieri) 2002 (Gbandi)
    2. 1996 (Pope) 1999 (Heaps) 2000 (Garcia) 2002 (Twellman)
    3. 1999 (Mulrooney) 2000 (Brown) 2002 (Davis)
    4. 1998 (Klein) 1999 (Bocanegra) 2002 (Mapp)
    5. 1999 (Brown) 2001 (Vaca) 2002 (Gray)
    6. 1998 (Mathis) 1999 (Rhine)
    7. 1999 (Wolyniec?) 2000 (Califf) 2001 (Suarez)
    8. 1996 (Cassar) 1998 (Petke) 2000 (Hart) 2001 (Quaranta) 2002 (Martino)
    9. 1997 (Jolley) 1998 (Cunningham) 2001 (Mullen) 2002 (Bussey)
    10. 2001 (Oughton)

    Picks 11-20 (23/70=32.9%):
    11. 2000( Victorine) 2002 (Kante)
    12. 1998 (Barrett) 1999 (Broome) 2000 (Convey) 2001 (Burciaga)
    13. 1998 (Mastroeni) 2001 (Ferea)
    14. 2000 (Pierce) 2001 (Barclay)
    15. 1996 (Gutierrez) 2002 (Stone)
    16. ???? (Ching) <= lost the year
    17. 1996 (Vanney) 2002 (Capano)
    18. 1996 (Ralston) 1998 (Hernandez)
    19. 2000 (Denton) 2001 (Johnson) 2002 (Stewart)
    20. 1997 (Presthus) 2001 (Robinson) 2002 (Matteo)

    Picks 21-30 (13/70= 18.6%):
    21. 1996 (Marsch)
    23. 1996 (Lewis) 1998 (Marshall) 2000 (Vagenas) 2002 (Busch) <= weird cluster
    25. 2002 (Glinton)
    26. 1998 (Reis)
    27. 1996 (Razov) 2001 (Buddle)
    28. 2000 (Conway)
    29. 1997 (Hartman) 2001 (Curtin)
    30. 1998 (Franchino)

    After this point it appears to be a real crapshoot.

    Picks 31-40
    31. 2001 (Waibel)
    33. 2002 (Roner)
    35. 2000 (Rimando)
    39. 2000 (Oshoniyi)

    Picks 41-50
    44. 2000 (Wolyniac?)

    Picks 51-60
    52. 2000 (Russell)

    Picks 61-72
    66. 2002 (Moore)
     
  2. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    McBride was the #1 pick of the '96 draft.
     
  3. lurking

    lurking Member+

    Feb 9, 2002
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    He was the #1 pick in the inaugural draft, not in the college draft (what is now known as the superdraft) that year.
     
  4. JoeW

    JoeW New Member

    Apr 19, 2001
    Northern Virginia, USA
    Actually, I"m not sure that's true. MLS had several drafts that year. There was a combine draft that went multiple rounds. There was a college draft. McBride had played A-league ball (Milwaukee?) plus some time in Germany as I recall. I thought either Pope or Pollard was the first pick in the college draft.

    I think doing these draft analyses is tricky. Lots of variations affection placement in the draft--talent isn't the only criteria. For instance: US citizen/green card status? Were A-leaguers eligible for the draft?

    And definition of success as well: DCU drafted both Ryan Nelsen and Mark Lisi the same year. Nelsen starts for DCU, Lisi was traded to Metros--does Lisi count in the definition of what "success" is for the superdraft.
     
  5. lurking

    lurking Member+

    Feb 9, 2002
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well basicly what im looking at is how likely guys drafted in the past are to be on a current MLS roster. Just a pure hit or miss ratio in terms of the pick having any value to any MLS team at this time. I havent included 2003 because I think it was just too recent.

    You also picked 2 names that I probably missed, so if you can think of more and find them at one of the links below I can give a more complete listing. Not familiar with every MLS roster and there were a lot of names to sort through.

    Both Lisi and Nelson were 2001, both first rounders (3 & 4 respectively).

    1996-2000
    http://www.mlsnet.com/news/archive/
    2001
    http://endlesssoccer.tripod.com/usfootball/mls/mls_superdraft_2001.htm
    2002
    http://endlesssoccer.tripod.com/usfootball/mls/mls_superdraft_2002.htm
     
  6. Jeremy Goodwin

    Jeremy Goodwin Member+

    SSC Napoli
    Feb 16, 1999
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The superdraft became the superdraft by virtue of combining all the other drafts (except the waiver drafts) that were going on at that point in time. The major ones were the supplemental and college drafts, but they also threw the P40 signings into it (allocated directly to teams prior to the superdraft).

    The superdraft was only a "college draft" plus P40s this year because we've got no formal league to league relationship with the USL at the moment.
     
  7. Rich Kotschau #2, Tyrone Marshall #11 (in bio not #23), Carey Talley #14 - 1998
    Evan Whitfield #11 pick in 1999
    Henry Ring #33 - 2001
    Dipsy Selowane #36 - 2002
     

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