Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

WI, MI, PA are key. I see Biden as favorite for winning all three and if that happens, there's no path for Trump. That NC is in play is a piece of news that combined with the other news below, seem to be a reason for optimism:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...gn-trump-point-seems-playing-catch-rcna145903

Flush with $71 million cash at the end of February — more than twice that of Trump's campaign — Biden parlayed his fundraising advantage into a hiring spree that now boasts 300 paid staffers across nine states and 100 offices in parts of the country that will decide the 2024 election, according to details provided by the campaign.

Trump’s advisers would not disclose staffing levels, but his ground game still seems to be at a nascent stage. His campaign hired state directors in Pennsylvania and Michigan last week, people familiar with the recruitment process said.

Combined, the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee have fewer than five staff members in each of the battleground states, said two Republicans familiar with the committee and the Trump campaign’s organizational structures in 2020 and 2024.​

 

The main problem with democracy is the voters ...

 

Cool! I needed something to ruin my mood even more. I'll give it a listen.

 

There's a significant Arab population yes, but their clout is overstated and a lot of them are non-citizens. Biden won the Dem primary by a significant amount, Biden won MI in 2020 by 150k (Before Jan 6 and Dobbs) and there isn't even close to 100,000 Arabs. For all the coverage uncommitted gets, it's been about as effective as Raheem Sterling at penalties.

Anyway, Gaza isn't the big deal hard lefties or some people think it is in US elections.

 

You probably should get a mod to sticky this because as many times as I've seen you post this (and it all seems reasonable) no one here wants to believe you.

 

Not to mention anyone that is paying attention knows that the US is actually putting the screws to Israel. They haven't cut them off entirely, but there is a misunderstanding among some on the far left and Arab communities that the US somehow controls Israel. I don't think they understand that the US pulling support from Israel doesn't mean the war comes to an end. It just means the shackles come off.

 

The funny thing is, I've seen maybe two things relating to Palestine and it's a billboard in Hamtramck and a Palestine flag at Detroit City FC games. Hamtramck isn't a surprise because it does have a significant Middle Eastern population. DCFC games are full of hardcore leftists that are lily white The only place where uncommitted made statement it was Washtenaw County, and that's because it's home to the University of Michigan. Even then, Biden still won it, he still won every county in Michigan.

As much as people want to go on about Gaza, it's not the big deal current events junkies think it is. Or that leftists and the likes of Rashida Tlaib think either.

 

Michigan has voted Republican once in the last 30+ years and that was 2016. SInce then it's passed abortion measures and elected Dems in state government.

 

Nah, I'm not that good. Just someone who knows the area and follows some smart analysts based out of MI.

 

It seems to be more of a social media (TikTok) thing, tbh. From what the media has been saying the "None of the above" vote was pretty large in Michigan and Wisconsin. Obviously Biden won the primary in both by very large margins, but the Palestinian activists are claiming responsibility for the "None of the above" vote and the media is picking up and running with it.

Obviously, the media, so.. yeah..

 

It’s almost as if the leader of the Democratic Party should run on correcting the institutional failure that our article III courts have become…and highlight what he can do to fix it in the event the electorate give him a congress that will pass a bill to correct it.

 

Not a very catchy slogan, to be honest. To appeal to Americans, you might consider "Make America Greaterer", or something like that.

 

I'm far from an expert as well (hey expert Brummie!), but here's what I'm scared of: Based on the exit polls I posted, abortion wasn't as important an all-encompassing issue as we would hope. As I indicated, about 40% of those who were angry or dissatisfied about Dobbs still voted Republican. That's not a good sign, given those who theoretically would be angry or dissatisfied about it would normally be Democrats. It suggests to me that abortion might be an issue, but it is not a vote-the-bastards-out issue. Think about it, 40% who weren't happy about Dobbs still voted Republican - the very ones that want to outlaw all abortion. That really concerns me.

What really struck me was how the LGBT+ vote shifted very strongly toward Democrats up and down the line - that was very much a vote the ********ing bigoted bastards out - but abortion didn't do that. I don't think people are connecting Republicans with abortion as much as we want to think they are (or that they should). While not as significant, the additional LGBT+ movement toward Democrats seems to explain a 2% shift in general population votes. Abortion should have a much bigger effect than that.

To make matters worse, this is why I'm really concerned about Democrats giving way on LGBT+ issues. The LGBT+ vote has shifted dramatically since 2020 - if it shifts back or abstains, we're screwed.

 

If the GOP wasn't so racist, they would clean up on the God front and anti gay front. But don't let stop an enemy while they are making a mistake.

 

Thank you! But also the politicians.

 

To which I say…you hurt Dem turnout if you don’t. Dems know the deal. They know the court is corrupt. They know this court overturned roe v wade. They know this court will overturn a federal statute codifying and returning to the status quo ante.

 

It's a very online thing yes, but people like that do exist. The problem is they are annoyingly vocal to the point of destructive.

 

I listened to them. No laughter was laughed.

 

It’s not that. I still expect that Biden will win Michigan and that the call will be made within an hour.

I’m just saying there’s this big variable out there.