As I always say, a pessimist is never disappointed! For context, my ex-significant other played this song for me the last time I saw him before he died of a brain tumor. Needless to say it was quite fitting. That she was in a Citroen DS, a car I associate with my grandfather who I was named after and who used to drive one when I was in France, just drives the symbolism home for me.
yeah there is no way these are real. the trend is that Biden is holding his 20 support with whites and even may expand but is struggling with other parts of his coalition. that is quite different to the narrative that he is struggling with the white working class! what is a worry is his performance with non white groups, youth etc. he needs those people to come back. trump on the other hand may have an issue with base voters. ie the Hayley types
Because a lot of those non-white see themselves as white, and they don't realize (or are in denial) that the fascists will eventually come for them. I'm speaking here about the Latino voters, who are also much more vulnerable to the fearmongering about communism and also more in line with the GQP views on abortion. Bear in mind that lot of the Latin American voters are/were affluent in their country of origin and saw how the left took over Venezuela and Nicaragua and are genuinely afraid of that happening in the US, so they're are more prone to believe all the GQP propaganda about Biden, plus they feel that they are accepted by white people as equals.
Related, the Arab-Americans in MI are heavily conservative and are being palsy walsy with the GOP. Especially on LGBTQ matters. Of course, the big names in the MI GOP are already turning against them for something else. Not the first time it's happened, either.
This is similar to the tension in some European nations that have cultures that highly value diversity but also have large Muslim immigrant populations who do not share those values.
Relevant, we are still seven months out but still though. The wind can change many times, and summer is long, but people are starting to pay attention, and you'll find Biden gaining ground. It's slow, not irrevocable, but demonstrable.— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) April 9, 2024
Nothing unites disparate groups like hatred of gays! I think it was the 2017 Gay Games in Tel Aviv that successfully united some Muslim, Jewish and Christian groups there in opposition.
As a very clear example (though not presidential), y'all go back and look at the Johnson v. Feingold Senate race in Wisconsin in 2016. For months, going back into 2015, Feingold was winning, sometimes by as much as 13 points. But in June, Johnson slowly started to chip away at the lead, and by October it was pretty much neck and neck, and just before the election, it was Johnson, who won. What really made a difference was the huge amount of adverts Johnson had versus Feingold. I remember being in the gym in October and it seemed that every ad break there were two Johnson ads, maybe one Clinton ad, and every other or even every third ad break, a Feingold advert. And there were Johnson adverts elsewhere as well. I say this as Biden appears to have money that Trump does not. And we are also seeing a shift, slightly, towards Biden. Once we get into convention time frame, I think we will see Biden with the lead, probably within the margin of error, but sometimes outside.
I am not sure why it's even controversial that Trump will try to remain as President beyond 4 years. This is what I find so frustrating about all the legal attempts to thwart him. The guy did a coup. The idea he will stick to the laws is hilarious. Yet here we are. Can You Imagine? Democracy’s Enemies Can. Last week, Bulwark editor Jonathan V. Last made a bleak argument (even by his admittedly dark standards). In “If Trump Wins, He’ll Run for a Third Term. And the Republican Party and Supreme Court Will Let Him,” Last highlights an essay in The American Conservative calling for a third Trump term, and explains why supporters of U.S. Constitutional democracy should be alarmed: “If Trump wins this election, he will attempt to run again in 2028. You can take that to the bank. Likewise, it’s a mortal lock that Conservatism Inc. will come up with various rationalizations for why Trump should be permitted a third term…And the Republican party, too, will acquiesce to this desire, as they have not only at every turn, but with increasing alacrity. At which point the Supreme Court will be asked to step in and enforce the Twenty-second Amendment. And everything we’ve seen to date suggests that they will be loath to take any action that might be interpreted as thwarting the democratically expressed will of (some of) the people.” https://www.arcdigital.media/p/can-you-imagine-democracys-enemies
Professor West makes his VP pick https://www.threads.net/@cnn/post/C5lqYW4Ke2v/?xmt=AQGzku616LwvyPeaY4NnSA6hOjm_rpkXwvXjiiTW8dCOjw
A new Quinnipiac poll in North Carolina finds Donald Trump barely leading Joe Biden in the presidential race, 48% to 46%. When the matchup is expanded to include independent and third party candidates, Trump receives 41%, Biden receives 38%, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 12%, Cornel West receives 3%, and Jill Stein receives 3%. The consensus interactive electoral map has moved North Carolina to Toss Up.
The good news is a) at worst this will force Trump to spend time and money on a state he won in 2020 and b) with the GOPs running a nut for governor, there is a path to Biden winning NC and it allows Trump to win Michigan for sure and still lose. NC is bigger than Michigan now. The bad news is that I’m going to have to suffer.
Speaking of Cornel West, I hope Team Biden has plans in place to arrange vote trading if necessary. It’s fine for West to get lots of votes in California, so Cali Dems should trade votes with West fans in swing states.
Due to the Gaza war I think Michigan is less certain. That war is a real wild card. Unlikely to matter, but who knows what the next card in the deck is?