Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

In election spoiler news… pic.twitter.com/cPgjqTwI7i

— KerrBear 🪷 (@MPLSKerrBear) April 4, 2024

 

RFK is only going to appeal to people who are Janice Soprano types and nothing more.

 

RFK Jr is weird and offputting. And it's a weird and offputting that makes one want to be as far away as possible. It's the kind of weird and offputting that draws in the usual cranks. Such as WiFi causing "leaky brain"

I'll add that the only young people he appeals to are Joe Rogan Show listeners. And that it's April, early analysis isn't a thing. Early analysis had DeSantis seen as a front runner and a serious candidate. What's he doing right now?

 

I was looking at CNN exit polls for 2020 and 2022 to see how Dobbs played out, hoping it would give me some hope with the upcoming election. I know that the elections weren't equivalent, given one was Presidential and the other midterms. I also fully acknowledge this is not my area of expertise (it's Brummie's), so I expect I am missing some things that are no doubt obvious to others. Nonetheless, I was curious but then surprised at what I saw.


In 2022 when asked about feelings about Roe being overturned, 39% were angry, 21% dissatisfied, 21% satisfied and 16% enthusiastic - so 60% opposed, 37% in favor, which is identical to the percentages who thought abortion should be legal or illegal, respectively.

But there was a big shift between 2020 and 2022 in that regard: 2020 was +9% legal, while 2022 was +23% legal. That's a huge jump, and not surprising given Roe being overturned.

So far, so understandable.


As far as party turnout was concerned, Democrats didn't turn out in 2022, while Republicans were consistent:

Democrat 37% in 2020, 33% in 2022
Republicans 36% in each
Independents 26% in 2020, 31% in 2022

However, it was consistent when broken down by ideology - Liberals were 24% in both, so it seems it was the more moderate Dems who didn't show up.


Now, the part that gets strange to my eyes:

While sex (CNN says gender, but then uses sex terminology) remained consistent with 48% male and 52% female in both elections, look at who females voted for:

In 2020 Biden was +15% in females, in 2022 Dems were +8%. That's a 7-point loss, even though support for abortion being legal increased 14 points. So women were angry but nonetheless voted for the very ones who took the right away from them!


One of the stats that provides some possible insight was marital status:

married men (30% of the electorate in 2020, 30% in 2022)
unmarried men (20% - 16%)
married women (26% - 30%)
unmarried women (23%-23%)

Looking at who each group voted for:

married men went from +11% Trump to +20% Rep
unmarried men flipped from +7% Biden to +7 Rep
married women went from +4% Trump to +14% Rep
unmarried women +27% Biden to +37% Dem

So married women turned out disproportionately greater and voted much more in favor of Republicans after Dobbs, while unmarried women turned out in consistent numbers but shifted equally toward Democrats. Unmarried men failed to turn out, but apparently it was primarily the unmarried men who vote Democrat who failed to show.


When throwing in "race" and focusing on women, white women turned out disproportionately greater (+ 5 points) and shifted 3 points more Democrat. It was actually women of color who shifted Republican: black women by 3 points, Latinas by 6 points. But that said, in 2022 there was a greater percentage of White voters than in 2020 (73% compared to 67%)


tl;dr: Married women rewarded Republicans, unmarried women were angry, unmarried men who vote Democrat failed to turn up, women of color drifted Republican, while white women drifted Democrat.



Another important demographic (at least to me) is LGBT+, given Republican attacks against us. LGBT+ represented 7% in both elections, so that is consistent, but votes went from +37% Biden in 2020 to +70% Democrat in 2022. Contrast that to non-LGBT+ who went from +3% Biden to +8% Republican.

Both of those are big shifts, with the LGBT+ shift being quite understandable given Republican attacks against us.

 

“President Joe Biden’s campaign said it raised $90 million in March, a sum that’s likely to grow the president’s significant financial edge over former President Donald Trump,” Politico reports.

“The Biden campaign said it had $192 million in cash on hand, a total that includes funds from the campaign, the Democratic National Committee and related joint fundraising committees. It’s the largest war chest amassed by any Democratic presidential candidate at this point in the cycle, according to a Biden campaign memo announcing the totals on Saturday. Aides released the total ahead of the monthly Federal Elections Commission filing deadline later this month.”

 

I know two actual factual young voters. Their issues are not RFK’s issues.

If he’s doing well among the young it’s not because of his policies. He’s just a placeholder for dissatisfaction and/or idealism.

 

I think some of your stats are off because state to state matters more than total. Turnout in Ohio is gonna be larger than Kansas but both places felt the effects of post Dobbs.

 

I just looked at Ohio exit polls and the same pattern as nationally holds from 2020 to 2022, with the exception that unmarried women shifted dramatically to Republicans, unlike they did nationally. Of course, there is a difference from the Presidential election to the mid-term/Governor election.

Married men went from +34 Trump, to +41 Rep
Unmarried men went from +9 Trump, to +20 Rep
Married women went from +1 Trump, to +17 Rep
Unmarried women went from +7 Biden, to +7 Rep


Of interest, in 2020 males were 47% of the turnout, but in 2022 they were 52%, so females didn't bother showing up like males did.


So where is this Dobbs effect exactly? In Ohio males turned out disproportionately and both married women and unmarried women shifted Republican by 16 and 14 points respectively, similar to the shift for males in Ohio.


What am I missing?

 

Going back to that 2022 Ohio exit poll, one of the questions was "How do you feel about the Supreme Court decision on abortion this year that overturned Roe v Wade?" Now, guess how many people who were "angry" or "dissatisfied" about it voted Republican and see if that conforms to your expectations.

Roe v Wade (open) Roe v Wade (close)

25% of those who were angry about it voted Republican, 69% of those who were dissatisfied but not angry about it voted Republican. Combining those who were angry or dissatisfied, 40% voted Republican

 

See, the big problem with people is that they're people and people have all the stupid failings of people.

 

This seems weird.

Ohio’s deadline for the parties to certify their nominees comes before the Democratic convention. So Biden may not be on the ballot in Ohio.

That won’t affect Biden; if he wins Ohio he’ll have already won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But it’s a problem for Sherrod Brown.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-face-challenges-ohio-general-ballot/story?id=108912620

 

Bob Kennedy’s New York campaign director says her #1 priority is getting rid of Biden

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/08/politics/rfk-jr-new-york-biden-trump/index.html

 

typo in the second red headline

 

The nonwhite one just blows my mind. It's incomprehensible. Sure, let's vote for the one who is an overt racist and wants to imprison or deport us!

LGBT+ have shifted to overwhelmingly Democrat - it used to be about +40-50, now it's +80 or so.

 

I think that the changes are so drastic that I can’t believe that this is accurate at all. I do kinda believe the LGBT+ number, but I have a really hard time thinking that enough has changed in 4 years to cause 20-30pt swings.

 

I think a lot of it is young voters easily disenfranchised so it is not moving to Trump as not voting at all. Some minority groups do feel betrayed like women, black women, Muslims and such so that contributes to it. I just don't feel as many are moving to Trump as just won't vote.

 

We're so screwed.