Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

I will bet on Selzer and against all the Atlas/Emerson/Rasmussen and other fly-by-night polling outfits every day of the week.
There is a reason that her poll was a nuclear bomb over the weekend.

 

Not until this thread and the pbp thread are underneath the What Polling Got Wrong thread

 

That would be not be funny at all. It would be psychological torture.

tying this point with asf’s about newly naturalized citizens, Iowa I’m guessing has few of those.

 

Atlas is a top pollster for sure.......what a clown car/

1853609462818394278 is not a valid tweet id

 

Joe Rogan just endorsed Trump.....I am happy the VP never sat with this POS.....

 

Kamala is sounding VERY confident right at this moment in Pittsburgh.

 

That’s ********ed up even as cheating. Because if Trump has those numbers for all those subdemos, he’s not going to beat her by just 1 point. He’ll beat her by what, 10 points? 12? Makes no sense even on its own terms.

 

A very compelling argument for Trump was made by Musk.. so Rogan probably just got a nice gratuity lol

 

This is a family friend of mine who wouldn't vote for Hillary in 2016 because she was a neoliberal (Their words). They spent most of the last year ranting about Palestine. The irony is this person's father got their start working for a Dem congressman in the 70s and worked with the current Michigan Attorney General years back. Both this person's parents are the more rational ones.

Then there's the leftists who veer into crank territory. Somebody I used to know posted about voting for RFK Jr (Never mind that he dropped out). The sad thing is with this particular person you could see it a mile away. And even crazier, they worked for Rashida Tlaib.

 

Of course. In the space of a week, an interview with Trump, JD and Elon, followed up by the endorsement.

 

At the risk of being on the wrong end of an @American Brummie artillery launch…as someone who’s statistics background is limited to a 200 level statistics course and a 25 y/o 6 sigma certification…it sure seems like an awful lot of pollsters have gone from scientists to making shit up.

 

Well, it’s that colored lady’s fault for not taking a half day out of her schedule to pay obeisance. She had her chance.

 

They have a PA poll with Trump up 1, but they have the black vote at literally half what it was in 2020, when it was 11%. Yeesh.

Anyway, if you take the missing 5% and give that to Harris 4-1 instead of Trump 3-2, that’s Harris +1.

 

Things I'm doing during Election Day tomorrow:

Work out, take pet to the vet, come home, clean house, then get several glasses of wine deep until the evening then.

Cautiously optimistic, for a lot of reasons.

 

I am on a plane tomorrow to St Kitts & Nevis. As a dual citizen of there and the US, I have been reminded that, depending on the outcome of the election, it may be a good time to just relocate. I am hoping to not be forced into that choice on this occasion. Hell, I am already traveling there due to my uncle's funeral. I don't need even worse news to come back to!

 

If y’all are feeling nervous about this shit….close your eyes and think about how Trump feels. He’s about to find his out whether or not he dies in jail.

 

Some Michigan voting numbers, but 3 million people either early voted or voted absentee. I turned my ballot in back in October.

If you want to look, check this out.

https://www.michigan.gov/sos/elections/election-results-and-data/voter-participation-dashboard

 

I live 15 minutes from Canada and have a good friend living there if it ever came to that.

Sorry for your loss.

 

Was there ever any doubt at all?

 

That does make me feel a little bit better, but I'm already sick to my stomach and the stress eating/drinking is right around the corner.