Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

Agree. I know that as well...Herding has been prevalent lately and it is a clear attempt to gum up the Harris support.
That is exactly why, as you said, Selzer number are forcing some pollsters to reevaluate their methodology.
A lot of them will have eggs on their faces this week.

 

You are forgetting the other 3 tea leaves:

• Doom/Gloom
• Despair
• Agony

Disappointment is baked in.

 

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball forecasts Kamala Harris winning the electoral vote over Donald Trump, 276 to 262.

“If Harris does win, it might be an indicator that the last days of a campaign can matter, even at a time when so many vote before Election Day. We are not going to recount the various headlines from Trump and his allies over the past 10 days or so, but ask yourself: has Trump closed strong in this race? We don’t really think so, nor do many of the people we’ve talked to in the past several days.”

“He also, in our view, has been more prominent down the stretch than Harris has been, which may not be helpful to him—this is mostly impressionistic, to be sure, but think back to when Trump won in 2016: The focus late in that campaign was Hillary Clinton’s emails and her problems.”

They also have Republicans winning the Senate with 52 seats and Democrats barely winning the House with 218 seats.

 

Why would I not accept the results.

To be so far off in two out of the last three elections would be another stain on pollsters (other than the few who would get it right), to the point where they would have next to no credibility for future elections.

 

Atlasintel has been the Trump favoring pollster who's quickness is very fishy.


Their final national poll is Trump leading Harris by 1.1 in a 5 way race and 1.2 head to head. Obviously would be a horrific popular vote outcome, but that's Harris's best poll with them in awhile

 

Final Zogby.

Harris up 2.3 head to head and 3.8 in a full field

 

Atlas is an absolute joke.....

 

Ok.....Get ready for it then...Harris is going to win on the strength of the women's vote; the gender gap and the overwhelming support of AA, AAPI, Jewish, LGBTQ etc. not to mention a much superior GOTV operation.

 

+1

1853566537908809742 is not a valid tweet id

 

Watching the Harris campaign vs. Trump, it's striking how much of a higher level the Harris campaign is operating. It's NFL vs. Division 2 college, at best.

Why?

Part of it, of course, comes from Trump, who has made a mess of every organization he has ever controlled. But…

— Stuart Stevens (@stuartpstevens) November 4, 2024

 

If Harris did that it would be Democrats who would try to burn down the Capitol!

 

So, in the real world:
- Dems are winning the early vote not the Rs
- betting markets? WTF
- Harris just had her best week of polling
- Dems have overperforming polls since Dobbs. Poll error more likely to favor us

Rs got nothing and are losing. https://t.co/DYz0RCI34b

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 4, 2024

 

I just want to brag and show these off, but I voted early and got these awesome stickers from my city clerk a while back.

 

Is it over yet?

 

It will never end.

 

They are freaking out......

“In the wee hours of Monday morning, Elon Musk, the billionaire who has put nearly $120 million behind an effort to get Donald Trump elected, issued a simple warning on the social media platform he owns. ‘Men must vote!’ he wrote at 2:43 a.m.,” the New York Times reports.

“His post, a plea that has been issued by several Trump allies in the campaign’s final stretch, reflected a growing concern from Mr. Trump’s team that heavy turnout among women in several key battleground states could spell trouble on Election Day.”

 

He is high as a kite....

Junior is tripping tonight. He says Diddy was only arrested so Harris can blackmail all the celebrities who went to his parties, and that’s the only reason why so many celebrities have endorsed her. pic.twitter.com/qqIAKeUnLe

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) November 4, 2024

 

Every accusation is a confession.

 

Well our friends at Fox News are busy priming their base.. apparently Kamala has lost way too much support in the last 2 weeks to have a chance at winning

at this point:

 

David Plouffe, senior adviser to the Harris campaign, says the VP could win all 7 battlegrounds—and that she’s “positioned to win” undecided voters. Hear why pic.twitter.com/EcssUrMp4F

— Erin Burnett OutFront (@OutFrontCNN) November 5, 2024

Measured but pretty confident.

 

I think others may have addressed this, but that Iowa pollster uses a different, more traditional and simple methodology than most other pollsters do. And her polls have been extremely accurate in Iowa. So, no, her numbers and polling in other battleground states wouldn’t align, because those polls use a different methodology. Is she right? We’ll know in the next 30-36 hours or so.