Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

Puerto Rico is an island of garbage.

It'll be utterly amazing that a 1-bit shock comic turned this election around.

 

Once a Nader voter, always a Nader voter!

 

Oh Lord....JD Vance just called Harris trash in a rally in Atlanta...just 30 min ago....

JD Vance in his closing campaign speech: "The trash's name is Kamala Harris."

 

I only wish I could both invest the time and have the creativity to sock that hard.

 

She’s still a woman of color, so Trump has that working for him.

 

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— Machine Pun Kelly 🇺🇦 (@KellyScaletta) November 4, 2024

 

How anyone thinks this'll be over when the election is called I dunno. It's over when she is sworn in and not until then.

 

I kind of assume most of those people decided long ago.

 

That was a clear campaign strategy to not emphasize her gender....

 

“Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion”

 

It’s pretty easy to say…Trump is gonna get crushed. If he wins men by just 4, Florida and Texas (among others) are unquestionably on the table. All the swing states are lost.

Are this weekend’s polls the great unherding? Kinda seems that way, and while before the fact you couldn’t predict which side was benefitting from herding, now it’s clearly Trump who was. To me, Trump winning comfortably is impossible. He still might squeak it out by barely winning a bunch of swing states. He’d have to win all of the non Blue Wall plus one other state. The floating pile of garbage feels like it put Pennsylvania out of play.

If yall take Trump, sure. His mother was from Scotland.

 

That poll definitely seems to be an outlier of that variety. There is no world those NH numbers are true and all the other polls are saying what they are saying.

While polls have shifted in Harris' favor, they are all still at or slightly worse than what Biden got, which doesn't bode well for her chances tomorrow. Trump is going to sweep 6 out of 7 of the battlegrounds. As hard as the pollsters try, there is always that 2% error they are missing.

 

I'm very curious to know how much AI is messing with these polls. Are things really this tight or is this bad, lazy pilling using AI how it shouldn't be?

Guess we'll find out in a few weeks.

 

I guess Selzer was an outlier as well, right?

 

I would say it is.

I'd be shocked if she was less than 10 points off from the final count.

 

So if Harris wins, will you accept the result or will you say it was rigged?

 

There are a number of polling tea leaves that suggest either 1) there's been some herding that systematically underestimates Harris's support, and/or 2) there's a late break to Harris. Whether either of these suggestions is true is TBD.

There's another factor out there that's also TBD, which is whether the predominant likely voter models are correct. It could be that this year's electorate, either in its shape or its voting patterns, differs systematically from the 2020 (and to a lesser extent 2016) turnout patterns that a lot of pollster likely voter models are based on. If it does differ, then who knows how this'll turn out.

One reason why Ann Selzer's numbers may be different is that she doesn't base her likely voter model on past elections.

 

I'd love to see it, but I just don't see it on the cards given the polls. If Harris was set to win, we would see her with a lead across most of these battlegrounds, with the final result a point or two below the polling average. Tied in polling is going to be down by 2 when the results come in.

 

That is not my question though. Will you accept the result?
Actually, the current set of polls aggregate are not giving an accurate picture, since the GOP has been flooding the zone with crappy polls. If one just pay attention to the standard reliable polls, she is leading in both national polls and most battlegrounds. No later than today, Marist polls shoed that.

 

As long as they are stating their error bars, then they are missing nothing!

We’ve been saying on here for a long time that unless it is a 5pt+ gap, it is a tossup. Interpreting a +2 with a +/- of 3pts is not a lead.