Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

The best part of that joke was imagining Trump’s face if/when he heard it.

 

LOL. 47% damns the demo regardless. They need to work on each other.

The big picture is impact. You offer dissent out of a sense of... well, I don't know. Loyalty?

If I said 6.5 million Jewish people were murdered in the Holocaust, and another poster logged in to tell me it was 6 million, I might not reply, but somebody would rightfully point out that 6 million is too many for him to repeatedly defend the lower number.

 

I read this factoid on the internet but couldn’t believe it. I had to run through my memorized list of US presidents, and sure enough, it’s true.

The last time a Democrat succeeded a living Democrat (I.e., not LBJ) as in what year?

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1856.

Let’s leave aside what happened in 1861.

 

A couple things about the Iowa poll.

1. Her results differ mostly due to her findings on how older women will vote. How likely, and for whom.
2. She does NOT use self reported “who did you vote for last time” in her weighting because she says that question hasn’t proven to lead to more accurate results. (NYT/Siena doesn’t use that question either.)

Because of the 2016 and 2020 misses, more pollsters are using that.

So…if her call turns out to be accurate, that aspect of polling will end up being discredited. If her call is wrong and Trump wins Iowa by a solid margin, that question will likely become a standard question for pollsters.

 

And as I continue to peruse the news, I see this, which has mostly good numbers for the D’s. (WTF Michigan?)

Final Swing States Poll by NYT/Siena (full field)

President
North Carolina - 🔵 Harris 48-45%
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris 48-45%
Nevada - 🔵 Harris 48-46%
Michigan - 🟡 Tie 45-45%
Pennsylvania - 🟡 Tie 47-47%
Georgia - 🟡 Tie 46-46%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 48-44%
——
Senate
Wisconsin - 🔵…

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 3, 2024

@American Brummie thoughts? Maybe what we’ve been seeing has been less unusual herding by pollsters, and instead is pollsters not being sure how to use the data gleaned by asking how people voted before.

 

We tried it once but like cockroaches, you just came back. DC ans Chicago won't happen to MLS 1.0 teams but we do need to consider fan boycott until ownership invests in the club.

 

Big Freedia is working it for Kamala.

 

Tim Miller goes in depth on these and provides explanations, such as NY Times/ Siena doesn't do herding as much as the others and late breakers are going for Kamala. However, in contrast to the Iowa poll the NY Times polls don't see older voters breaking for Kamala.

 

One company, Atlas, is the reason aggregators have Trump with a sliver of a lead in PA rather than Harris up a few points. So their owners are about to become very rich, or about to be looking for work.

1853110123004080250 is not a valid tweet id

 

DT, I'm copying this post and moving it to another thread. I'll tag you when I get there.

 

Posters who understand regression analysis and crap like that should bookmark this.

Pro tip for folks preparing to monitor local returns on Election Night: the good folks at @mulawpoll created a tool that lets you instantly pull up election results by municipality going back to 2000. It's wildly helpful. pic.twitter.com/W9UN8Kps6T

— Ben Wikler (@benwikler) November 3, 2024

 

MAGA does have one positive aspect…it’s a magnet for the shittiest people in America. So it’s easier to identify them.

NEW — Another scoop and an interesting update on the Elon Musk's voter turnout operation in Michigan.

The entire group of Black, mostly out-of-state door knockers got fired with hours of the @WIRED U-Haul article dropping on Wednesday. New story includes:

- One of the door… pic.twitter.com/xLOJZlGuzN

— Jake Lahut (@JakeLahut) November 3, 2024

 

Same here. I've been religiously examining elections since 2004 and, for one, the way these campaigns are operating in the final days is usually how the winners and losers usually operate. This isn't 100%, so my natural pessimism has plenty of room to operate, but, if I had a gun to my head, I'd choose a win for Harris.

I just want this to be over, though, and, specifically, I want to be free of Trump. It never ********ing ends.

 

You're not going to be free of Trump's effect. Depending on your age, you'll probably go to your grave in a more conservative America than the one you grew up in.

POCs had a few years there where some Whites seemed willing to meetus halfway. And then the rest of them elected Reagan. It's been downhill ever since.

 

I can't help but think the orange Hitler-loving felon doesn't really care about trying to win the election by votes on Tuesday, which is why they've embraced his natural full-on racism, etc. When you combine his Univision appearance with his MSG rally, he's constantly been shooting himself in the foot - if he were a serious candidate. His campaign behavior just seems completely performative at this point, including the garbage man routine.

My feeling is his campaign is more focused on the behind-the-scenes stuff, evidenced by his possible secret with Mike Johnson, than he is about trying to convince undecideds to vote for him. Furthermore, if so, he can then make the argument that he was "elected" even with his full-on racism and Nazism, suggesting that America is ok with all that, thereby further empowering him.

And yes, I can find grey skies on a sunny day.

 

Sure, but I’d still be a lot happier never having to see or hear that bloated sack of bile again, regardless of his long term impact.

 

I'd be quite happy to see more of him, as long as it involves him appearing as a defendant in court.

 

Or in a prison reality show: The Orange Prisoner

 

I'm kind of on the fence. As long as he exists, he will be the face of the GOP, and that's a good thing. Conservatism should not be allowed to weaponize the facade of reason, learnedness or rationalism a second time (Reagan).

 

Who was it here said he's not trying to win an election, but preparing to steal one?

I mean, he's shooting himself in the foot because he's senile and speaking his mind without considering the consequences.

 

Perhaps, but political environments can change rapidly. I grew up in the 90s and, if you had told me we were two decades from legal gay marriage I would've thought you crazy.

As far as Trump, populist movements, especially conservative ones, need their charismatic leader. A movement defined by low education people decked out head to toe in Trump doesn't seem to be a long lasting one. I don't know who would take the mantle from him. Vance? Vivek? Hawley? No one seems particularly adept or primed for the role.

Now, I do think race baiting on immigration will continue to be a thing, but that's been a thing forever in this country. I also think the younger folks are not as moved by things like transgender reading hour and much more interested in items like climate change. So, I'm not entirely sure I'll end up the next few decades of my life (Hopefully, I have this) in a more conservative environment than has been.

If anything, those whites who aren't willing to meet you halfway are going to be less and less of the population. I know this middle-aged white guy who's not entirely dour about this aspect of the future.

 

That is how it comes across to me. I mean, the focus has been on young males - that's not a demographic that will win you an election, while it is certainly a demographic that is prone to violence and willing to take risks to achieve "glory".

 

The second paragraph is the Hail Mary of all Hail Marys for Trump. He doesn't have as many people to support him on this endeavor as he thinks. The Freedom Caucus freaks are small in numbers, even if loud, and the rest of the GOP are littered with political whores who will know when the winds are not at Trump's back. A second attempted insurrection won't go down well. In the short term, it would be messy, but it's a fruitless effort of an increasingly delusional man.