Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

Trump losing sleep over polling numbers.

Dailybeast.com

 

Emerson did a poll at the same time that has Trump up 9.

The biggest difference in the two polls to me is that Emerson has 1% undecided, Selzer has 9%. Harris is about the same in them, 45 vs. 47. But they have Trump at 44 vs 54.

Trump won both states by 8 points in 2020.

Sherrod Brown is basically a younger version of Tom Harkin.

 

I want to believe but the doom is just too strong.

 

That pollster was one of the first (only?) to call that undecideds were breaking for Trump in 2016 and her late poll in 2020 suggested Biden’s support was inflated in the polls.

So…very good track record.

 

Here’s a poll where Trump is only +3 in Ohio. So that’s a breadcrumb that the Iowa poll is worth taking seriously.

Ohio Presidential Polling:

Trump (R): 49%
Harris (D): 46%

Miami University / Oct 30, 2024 / n=853 pic.twitter.com/7HEpfJ4hoN

— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) November 2, 2024

 

It's like a slasher movie: they want you to think it's all over and everything is fine now, then when you're not expecting it, BAM the old fork in the eye.

 

Her worst miss of all time is 5 points in the 2018 governor race. So even if Trump pulled a 3-4 point win, that's still a horrific sign for the other Big Ten swing states.

Only caution I would bring up for Liberals is that Iowa did pass a draconian abortion law, so it may run slightly closer to PA, MI, and WI than it did 4 years ago

 

Yes but Iowa was a light blue state for 30 years while Ohio bounced around from blue to red (but mostly red) during the same period. Too much of Ohio is angry Appalachia to give a Democrat a decent chance there anymore. Iowans are still relatively sane.

 

I mentioned this Seltzer poll earlier this week, I was hoping / expecting a 4 pts gap for Trump and that would have been a huge positive signal for Harris. That she is leading now in Iowa, it is a a game changer. The Midwest is gone for the felon. He is deep trouble.

 

Now you jinxed it ...

 

Who jinxed it?


You need to adjust your settings so that everyone who says anything positive is automatically put on ignore.

 

That's a good idea. I'll post this video to see who responds with positivity and hope.

 

No worries.....I threw some salt.....I am not letting @American Brummie come after me!!

 

Josh Marshall is chiming in on the Seltzer poll - https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/okay-what-about-the-selzer-poll

 

Cardi went medieval on Elon's a*****

I’m not a puppet Elon.. I’m a daughter of two immigrant parents that had to work their ass off to provide for me! I’m a product of welfare, I’m a product of section 8, I’m a product of poverty and I’m a product of what happens when the system is set up against you….But you don’t… https://t.co/BBYQ2O0KYJ

— Cardi B (@iamcardib) November 2, 2024

 

And when she loses the election, at least we will have the memory of this poll to warm our hearts in the gulag winter.

 

Trump campaign is freaking out.....

I've known Tony since the Dole campaign in 1996.

No campaign professional on the planet would value Tony's numbers and analysis over Ann Selzer. https://t.co/ToGGSFh2KU

— Stuart Stevens (@stuartpstevens) November 3, 2024

 

Harris is going to be on SNL tonight.

Trump’s tweets tonight should be entertaining.

"Live from New York..." Harris on "SNL" tonight is a bit like Trump on "Fox & Friends" this morning. Both are home team visits. The difference is that the VP's appearance will reach a much bigger audience pic.twitter.com/7GXf3lNK7q

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) November 3, 2024

 

If one accepts the idea that we study history to learn from other's experience and try to not make the same mistakes, then this is the time to act. You can't wait until after Hitler 2 Electric Boogaloo takes us down a dark path to say "well, now he's proven himself a terrible leader". What use is it to become an anti-Nazi in 1945? The damage has been done.

Trump isn't a garden variety racist/segregationist (which is bad enough). This guy is out for vengeance. The most important thing to him is to go after anyone or thing that he perceives as a foe and the repercussions do not matter. He had these same impulses in his first term as President, but he had stable people around him that shut those ideas down. Trump has made certain that the people that surround him now will not do that.

 

I refuse to become hopeful after that Iowa poll. I'm sticking to Hudson's attitude, just to be safe.

 

That is fine. There's no realistic way to convince anyone here of that.

I've said my piece and I stand by it.

Just a few days left. Lets see how things play out.

 

Exactly, all reports indicate on numerous occasions he wanted to use the military on American citizens but the generals and others around him shut him down. This is why he wants Hitler's generals, because they did what Hitler wanted. The orange fascist wants generals that will let him use the military on Americans. They're not making the same mistakes they did last time; they're making sure he has a bunch of "yes, men" around him.