Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

Curious as to why?

I think Nevada is the most likely, whereas the rest of those states are confederates, so they are less likely, full stop.

 

Your assertion here is contradicted by polling data.

Great passion though!

 

Polling data, and the fact that GOPs have a big statewide office in Nevada, none in Arizona.

Better data points than your airport layovers LOL.

 

NV harbors a lot of ill feelings about COVID and the shut downs. I actually think this helps Trump 4 years later.

That town was disproportionately affected given what it is.

 

I think much of it is projection.

They blame the concept of "Democrats" for the shutdowns. Four years later, details count for less.

 

Your problem is you are trying to be logical.

1. Democrats believed Covid was real.

2. Republicans believed Covid was fake.

3. Therefore, anything (e.g., lockdowns) that resulted from Covid is the fault of the Democrats.

 

My understanding is that there was a correlation between being a fan of Boca vs. River Plate, and support or opposition to the junta.

Think like that…COVID is like soccer teams.

 

Georgia and North Carolina were part of the Confederacy, but they aren't Alabama, Mississippi, and the like. Those place have lots and lots of transplants coming in all the time, young college professionals and, in Georgia's case, many of them are African-American. They are going to be teetering towards turning blue for the next decade. Florida is absorbing the old transplants and the New South type places are getting the young ones. Every Dem candidate in the next few cycles, at least, will be regularly heading to Atlanta and Charlotte. Those places are very much doable now for any Democrat running. The GOP is desperately trying to rig the systems in those places to hang on because they know it's slipping away from them.

And, if Texas ever makes that final step, hoo boy.

 

Which polls, exactly?

The ones I've seen have Harris down a touch in NC. (WITHIN THE Moe.)

 

LOL, longer stay than a layover.

But then, you seem to agree with me, and disagree with @soccernutter.

He believes that AZ is more likely than NV; I believe it to be the reverse.

 

Ah. That said:

All polling suggests that Trump is up in GA, and statewide GOP politicians have rewritten election laws in ways that favor the GOP. We'll have to see.

NC does have the research triangle and Robinson, but then it also has armed militias in western NC, as well as a cenuries-old heritage of bigotry.

AZ does have Lake/Gallego, but what I observed while I was there suggests that the well to do Boomers still hold sway there.

I agree that it looks hopeful across the blue wall, but until a confederate state learns how to act, just don't count on them, IMO.

Just cast your vote, and then hold your nose as those states freeload off the rest of us whenever a storm passes through Dixie. I dont think they'll go blue any time soon; GA in 2020 was an anomaly.

 

And by "luke warm" you mean denial with policies that will help promote increased pollution and carbon emissions.

 

I didn't do any of that (the lukewarmer perspective on climate has plenty of scientific backing, it is not equivalent to denial), but if you'd like to continue prescribing to me actions I didn't take, be my guest.

And if you want to talk about climate policies that ignore established science and are also wildly ineffective, take a look at your own country. The energiewende is exactly what lukewarmers are trying to avoid.

No. Most lukewarmers support policies that will reduce emissions and are proven to do so. The difference is in the methodology.

We went over this earlier in the thread. @celito made basically summed it up in a way I find fairly reasonable, so I'll just quote that.

Trump isn't Hitler. He had the same views and the same rhetoric in 2016, and we heard the same warnings that democracy would end with his 4 year term. It didn't. Repeating the same threat over and over again doesn't work when people have seen reality with their own eyes.

She has easily the worst record on the 2nd amendment of any Democrat nominee in a generation. To say she's a threat is an understatement.

Yes.

I saw him govern for 4 years, and I saw the (allegedly) not racist, not xenophobic, not narcissistic folks govern for 4 years as well. The direct comparison is easy to make and it doesn't come out all that close.