Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

Pretty much agree with everything. Latinos living in the US tend to be right-leaning and they're OK with authoritarians, as long as they are from the right (See Uribe in Colombia and our right wing parties tend to do very well among expatriates). Add to that that the right wing media has been very successful at labeling anything to the left of the US status quo as socialism/communism/marxism, and the pervasiveness of anti-communism messages in Spanish language social media, and you will understand the appeal of Trump to a big portion of Latino voters.

 

It would be very fun if many of us, non-Trump Latinos would end up in there too.

 

Isn't the situation in WI also driven to a remarkable degree by what's been happening in Dane County over the past 15 years? Madison/Dane Country has seen a 2.5% population increase over the past decade, while the Milwaukee metro area has shrunk by that much. It's the economic engine of the state, and deep, deep blue. Not nearly as large as Milwaukee, but has passed Waukesha County to be #2 in the state and, again, is rapidly growing.

 

Unearthed audio of JD Vance: “I think there’s something comparable between abortion and slavery” pic.twitter.com/Eq6OeNEapF

— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) September 30, 2024

 

Campaigning on Earth 2:

We’ve all become desensitized, but it’s amazing how at this point the Trump campaign rests entirely on denouncing things that aren’t happening — a imaginary bad economy, imaginary runaway crime and now an imaginary failure of Biden and Harris to respond to natural disaster

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) September 30, 2024

 

His lips are moving…

Here’s Trump claiming that Governor Kemp is having a hard time reaching President Biden

And here’s Governor Kemp saying President Biden called him yesterday. Kemp adds: He offered that if there's other things we need, just to call him directly, which, I appreciate that. pic.twitter.com/g2qxuT9Mwf

— Acyn (@Acyn) September 30, 2024

 

New AARP PA poll with Trump's own pollster as lead comes in 49-47 (+2) for Harris this am.

Again, there's no credible, independent poll over past month showing Trump ahead in PA. She has modest lead there. These recent red wave polls are bullshit. 2/https://t.co/ICzd36Yy5O

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) October 1, 2024

 

Is the GTP GOTV FUBAR?

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/whats-going-on-with-trumps-outsourced-gotv-effort

Remember back in the spring the Trump campaign and really the Trump family did a sort of forced takeover of the RNC and as part of that move they closed down the RNC’s Get Out The Vote or field operations and decided to outsource that work to a series of super PACs of which Elon Musk’s America PAC and the Turning Point USA’s PAC are the biggest? This wasn’t totally out of the blue or not totally without some rationale behind it. The FEC recently made a ruling that gave campaigns and parties greater ability to coordinate with super PACs on GOTV work. So there’s some logic to that. But it’s not obvious on that basis why you’d shut down the RNC’s GOTV operations. So questions about that move have hovered over this. Was this just dumb? Is there some financial interest at work? Is it just part of asserting total control over the party apparatus? Or is it actually just a good idea, allowing the unlimited dollars of these PACs to up the party’s game? The weight of logic and some evidence points to some mix of the first few answers. But it’s been hard to totally rule out the last one.

So now we’ve had two separate articles with state and national Republican operatives sounding alarm bells about how this is going. One was published about a week ago by the AP. And then a new one just came out in Politico. The gist and even structure of each article is similar enough that I’ll describe them as one, even though I assume they’re based on independent reporting and came out a week or so apart. Each focuses on unnamed, and in some cases named, Republican Party officials in the swing states essentially saying we’re not seeing any evidence of a ground game and we’re getting worried that we’re going to get swamped. These accounts are pretty credible — or at least it is pretty credible that these people mean what they say. Both in terms of morale and in terms of getting cross-wise with party leadership, no one wants to be saying this kind of stuff to the press. You do it because you’re trying to send up a warning sign to people in charge at the national level. It can also be, to some extent, the result of sour grapes. But in this context that’s not a very good explanation.

So the gist is that people working out in the swing states aren’t really seeing much of a ground operation and they’re getting worried. The Trump campaign’s response is that they’re super focused on very low propensity voters, and those voters are going to be especially present in rural and exurban areas while these operatives are used to focusing on the suburbs. On its face that doesn’t make a great deal of sense to me. The current GOP is really a party of rural and exurban America. Not exclusively of course. But that’s the base of the party, just as cities are for the Democrats. So it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me that GOP operatives aren’t familiar with these geographies or these kinds of voters. But I’ve never worked in GOTV operations and I certainly don’t have a strong sense of how Republicans do it. There’s also a question of just how low a propensity a voter you’re trying to get. The accounts suggest the focus is on Trump-inclined voters who weren’t successfully activated in 2016 or 2020 or at least not in both years. By definition those voters are probably pretty hard to turn out if they blew off one or both of the elections in which Trump was on the ballot. The strategy the Trump campaign is describing is at least consistent with the strategy stated in other contexts of semi-abandoning the suburbs and trying to squeeze a bit more juice out of rural and exurban America and, particularly, trying to turn out men in those areas.

 

Excuse if I take the opinion of someone spouting "lefitst" and "ideology" with a grain of salt..

P.S. A more nuanced response:

https://apnews.com/article/dockwork...longshoremen-91703e4798dbc9ee82185e983f31a3f6

Organized labor enjoys rising public support and has achieved a string of recent victories in other industries, with the backing of the pro-union administration of President Joe Biden. Their negotiating stand is likely further strengthened from having the nation’s supply chain of goods under pressure from the effects of Hurricane Helene, which has coincided with the peak shipping season for holiday goods.

The union is also pointing to record profits the shipping companies have made, in part because of shortages resulting from the pandemic, and to a more generous contract that West Coast dockworkers achieved last year. The longshoremen’s workloads also have increased, and the effects of inflation eroded their pay in recent years.

In addition, commerce into and out of the United States has been growing, playing to the union’s advantage. Further enhancing its leverage is a still-tight job market, with workers in some industries demanding and in some cases receiving a larger share of companies’ outsize profits.

--------------------
Experts say consumers won’t likely notice shortages for at least a few weeks, if the strike lasts that long, though some perishable items such as bananas could disappear from grocery stores. In anticipation of a strike, most major retailers have stocked up on goods, moving ahead shipments of holiday gift items.

The strike, coming weeks before a tight presidential election, could also become a factor in the race if shortages begin to affect many voters. Pressure could eventually grow for the Biden administration to help facilitate a settlement, though the administration has said it doesn’t plan to intervene beyond encouraging both sides to reach an agreement.

 

This "leftist" is well-prepared for it.

 

That usually wins elections!

 

He's a Trumper...

A real patriot trying to cripple the economy to elect a dictator.

Fuck him and his union. https://t.co/JHjxprC2Mm

— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) October 1, 2024

 

Y’all know this isn’t the tweet thread, right?