Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

Discussion in 'Elections' started by ceezmad, Nov 7, 2020.

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Who will be the 2 Candidates for the 2 big parties in 2024

  1. Joe Biden

    34 vote(s)
    53.1%
  2. Kamala Harris

    20 vote(s)
    31.3%
  3. Bernie Sanders

    2 vote(s)
    3.1%
  4. Ted Cruz

    1 vote(s)
    1.6%
  5. Donald Trump (from prison)

    28 vote(s)
    43.8%
  6. One of the Trump idiots

    4 vote(s)
    6.3%
  7. A Never Trump Republican

    2 vote(s)
    3.1%
  8. The dude from Florida (not florida man)

    6 vote(s)
    9.4%
  9. A Trumpian Republican

    10 vote(s)
    15.6%
  10. Hail Grimes!

    10 vote(s)
    15.6%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    #5151 The Jitty Slitter, Sep 15, 2024
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2024
    this was Taleb's argument as well. Silver's prediction model is mostly useless where the race is within the margin of error.

    ETA - it's also interesting what this info is for. For instance, if you are doing an investment strategy, you could therefore structure this information into your risk management. But like you say, is there any difference in practice between a 50/50 call and a 66/34 call for a one off event with large tail risks.

    Silver was correct in so far as he said there was a very real chance of Trump winning in '16 based on his model. But there is no real way to know whose model was more correct IMO.

    As Silver himself said, the Comey surprise was in itself enough to tilt the election and was an event mostly not in the data. Like Trump might have been always losing until that happened. Or he was always winning despite that. No one knows.
     
  2. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Imagine being that desperate for a sniff of power ...
     
  3. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    His ranting about the mauve media blob is bizzare
     
  4. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Trump's antisemitic campaign ads against Kamala's jewish husband Doug Emhoff is just another example of how the media got played by the right's campus moral panic

    We'll hear very little about this outrage from the unified reich party
     
  5. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In related news, Ann Seltzer just released today in Iowa with Trump leading Harris by just 4 points. I doubt the campaign will spend any time and money there but those numbers are encouraging specially for the local congressional candidates. At least 2 of the 4 districts are competitive.


    upload_2024-9-15_7-25-19.jpeg
     
  6. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Yeah great news

    As we know, this is all correlated, so even if Iowa is not in play, it's a very bad sign for Nappy Führer
     
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  7. Cris 09

    Cris 09 Trololololo

    Nov 30, 2004
    Westfalenstadion
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Turn Florida Blue!!!
     
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  8. Deadtigers

    Deadtigers Member+

    Jul 23, 2015
    Independent Republic of the Bronx, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Ghana
    Remember there was that dude that after Hitler killed himself and things were going down hill, made himself ruler of the Nazi party for the final hours.
     
  9. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    Goebbels and then Bormann!
     
  10. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    ABC, too good to be true?

     
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  11. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Iowa is also close, not that Harris is going to win it, but it's nice to see.

     
  12. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    North Carolina, A+ rated pollster, 900+ sample size.

    Trump up by 3


     
  13. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    Keep an eye out for a small Taylor Swift bump now that the orange idiot has posted "I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT" on his social network.
     
  14. rslfanboy

    rslfanboy Member+

    Jul 24, 2007
    Section 26
    @ceezmad

    Thanks for passing along the polls.

    just remember, when reading the polls, if it is within 5%, it is essentially a tossup. Only B or above polls showing more than 5% indicate a real lead.

    Iowa and Alaska’s results are interesting, but are coming so far from GOP territory, that even a +5 Harris poll would likely be an outlier.

    @superdave

    @American Brummie has already indicated that results within 5% mean it’s a tossup.
     
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  15. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    These state polls are weird. The data from heavily polled states like NC don’t really match with Alaska and Iowa.

    @American Brummie any thoughts?

    I know pollsters have to do a shit ton of adjusting compared to a generation ago because of the very low response rates. Is it possible that pollsters are adjusting heavily polled states in a pro Trump way so as not to seem like an outlier? That’s a wildly optimistic view, so yeah, I’ll go outside and spit. But there has to be some explanation for things like the Florida senate polling numbers and the Iowa numbers etc. being noticeably better for Dems than the NC poll and others.

    And about the latter…in today’s politics, is it actually feasible that Trump could win a race where Stein beats Robinson by 10? That’s a shitload of ticket splitters for 2024.

    I didn’t mind your Adam Kinzinger fan fic. But this is just gross!
     
  16. the5timechamp

    the5timechamp Member+

    Nov 3, 2012
    Dont even have to go that far…
    remember that dude that said Trump was Americas Hitler and called him an A-hole.. hes trying for VP. There are plenty of these folks in the GOP since 2016
     
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  17. Must be nice to be in his campaign team and having to endure him ruining your efforts.
     
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  18. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Four explanations:

    1) AK/IA polls are outliers. It happens!

    2) AK/IA are accurate and PA is also accurate. This represents a change in the efficient distribution of Trump's coalition, one where he is instead banking votes in some safe states and becoming very vulnerable in the Red Wall to a deterioration of his campaign.

    3) PA polls are inaccurate -- it happens! Perhaps pollsters have overcorrected.

    4) None of the polls are accurate. In that case we are in the dark and the actual electorate's composition will be very surprising on Election Night.
     
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  19. ArsenalMetro

    ArsenalMetro Member+

    United States
    Aug 5, 2008
    Chicago, IL
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Entirely based on my own vibes, I've been saying to anyone who will listen that there's going to be an underpolled state with a winner that shocks everyone. Iowa's a great candidate for that.
     
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  20. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm more bullish on Alaska. Mary Peltola's coattails might be huge and they will be more weirded out by the eating cats thing.
     
  21. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Meant to answer this two pages ago, so it probably already got mentioned...

    Four years ago, prices were far, far lower. The reason why they rose, blatant and nuanced, are not as easily understood or explained, particularly when one candidate only had 90 days (now less than 60 days) to explain it. On top of explaining how she will make things better, look forward, remind everybody her opponent is a criminal. And then the media only wants to talk about the myth of immigrants eating cats and dogs.

    Sure, Harris could tell everybody that we had a pandemic, and why it was so bad, and what was needed to make sure we didn't repeat the GFC. And then she could talk about the benefits of the IRA, which at the time helped cause inflation, but now seems to be helping reduce it. And she could point out how inflation is lower now than it was a year ago.

    But who, other than us wonks, really has the bandwidth to understand that nuance? Who, other than us wonks, can connect the dots? Who, other than us wonks, will understand what 2.8% inflation means NOW when prices of things like groceries have risen 25% in 4 years, and the cost of housing is skyrocketed.

    No, I think Harris is better off doing general stuff, the "I have a plan," and "moving forward" and doing things to get under Trump's skin (like telling everybody how his "crowd" size).

    The politics pod, the other day, made a similar argument to you in that they want more policy from Harris. But I think that is wrong. They also said it is good for Trump to talk about cats and dogs because it distracts from his "harrible" debate. I think that is wrong, as well. The more Harris says her course, brings out the positive message, and the more Trump reminds us he is the crazy uncle we don't invite to Thanksgiving dinner, the better Harris will be. And polls seem to be showing this is working.
     
  22. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I get it…but in 2016 there were 3 states that moved together. Just like Ga, Va, and NC vote in similar ways.

    What I’m suggesting is that maybe there’s an underlying pattern.
     
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  23. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As if the Haitians weren't already, mostly, voting Dem anyway.
     
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  24. Minnman

    Minnman Member+

    Feb 11, 2000
    Columbus, OH, USA
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I beg to differ. It's about far more than what prices were like in 2020. I mean, yes, gas was really cheap, becasue no one was driving to work. and millions were unemployed and thousands of businesses were failing. And Donald Trump was president overseeing this fiasco. The economy was in a free-fall in 2020. Are we just supposed to pretend that didn't happen?

    I can be flippant (because I don't work for the campaign) and argue that Harris-Walz should push back aganst the narrative that all that's wrong with the economy is that gas and groceries are more pricey than they were 4 years ago. And really that's all the working poor and middle class want, lower prices in those area.

    This in a the wealthiest nation on the planet where most retirees have no savings and have to rely solely on Socal Securtity and working into the 70s and 80s to try and make ends meet. Where homelessness is a large and growing problem. Where people still have to make decisions about whether to pay the rent or go to to doctor, because they can't afford to do both. And where the percentage of the country owned by the top 1% is the highest it's been in a century; where a former president who's a billionaire routinelty doesn't pay any federal income taxes; and where that same person promises to give the wealthiest in America another big tax break is he's re-elected.

    Are we really supposed to accept that all the middle class wants and needs is for gas to be 50 cents a gallon cheaper and for groceries to cost what they did in 2020?
     
  25. rslfanboy

    rslfanboy Member+

    Jul 24, 2007
    Section 26
    I’ve said multiple times, housing&rental prices skyrocketing is the main outrage. It’s also mostly a local/county/state issue and not a federal issue.
     

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