Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

In related news, Ann Seltzer just released today in Iowa with Trump leading Harris by just 4 points. I doubt the campaign will spend any time and money there but those numbers are encouraging specially for the local congressional candidates. At least 2 of the 4 districts are competitive.

 

Turn Florida Blue!!!

Trump won Florida by 300K votes.

400K Haitians are eligible to vote in Florida.

Trump, please say more about Haitians to energize them to vote.

— Captain Obvious™️ (@TheFungi669) September 14, 2024

 

Remember there was that dude that after Hitler killed himself and things were going down hill, made himself ruler of the Nazi party for the final hours.

 

Keep an eye out for a small Taylor Swift bump now that the orange idiot has posted "I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT" on his social network.

 

@ceezmad

Thanks for passing along the polls.

just remember, when reading the polls, if it is within 5%, it is essentially a tossup. Only B or above polls showing more than 5% indicate a real lead.

Iowa and Alaska’s results are interesting, but are coming so far from GOP territory, that even a +5 Harris poll would likely be an outlier.

@superdave

@American Brummie has already indicated that results within 5% mean it’s a tossup.

 

These state polls are weird. The data from heavily polled states like NC don’t really match with Alaska and Iowa.

@American Brummie any thoughts?

I know pollsters have to do a shit ton of adjusting compared to a generation ago because of the very low response rates. Is it possible that pollsters are adjusting heavily polled states in a pro Trump way so as not to seem like an outlier? That’s a wildly optimistic view, so yeah, I’ll go outside and spit. But there has to be some explanation for things like the Florida senate polling numbers and the Iowa numbers etc. being noticeably better for Dems than the NC poll and others.

And about the latter…in today’s politics, is it actually feasible that Trump could win a race where Stein beats Robinson by 10? That’s a shitload of ticket splitters for 2024.

I didn’t mind your Adam Kinzinger fan fic. But this is just gross!

 

Dont even have to go that far…
remember that dude that said Trump was Americas Hitler and called him an A-hole.. hes trying for VP. There are plenty of these folks in the GOP since 2016

 

Must be nice to be in his campaign team and having to endure him ruining your efforts.

 

Four explanations:

1) AK/IA polls are outliers. It happens!

2) AK/IA are accurate and PA is also accurate. This represents a change in the efficient distribution of Trump's coalition, one where he is instead banking votes in some safe states and becoming very vulnerable in the Red Wall to a deterioration of his campaign.

3) PA polls are inaccurate -- it happens! Perhaps pollsters have overcorrected.

4) None of the polls are accurate. In that case we are in the dark and the actual electorate's composition will be very surprising on Election Night.

 

Entirely based on my own vibes, I've been saying to anyone who will listen that there's going to be an underpolled state with a winner that shocks everyone. Iowa's a great candidate for that.

 

I'm more bullish on Alaska. Mary Peltola's coattails might be huge and they will be more weirded out by the eating cats thing.

 

I get it…but in 2016 there were 3 states that moved together. Just like Ga, Va, and NC vote in similar ways.

What I’m suggesting is that maybe there’s an underlying pattern.

 

I beg to differ. It's about far more than what prices were like in 2020. I mean, yes, gas was really cheap, becasue no one was driving to work. and millions were unemployed and thousands of businesses were failing. And Donald Trump was president overseeing this fiasco. The economy was in a free-fall in 2020. Are we just supposed to pretend that didn't happen?

I can be flippant (because I don't work for the campaign) and argue that Harris-Walz should push back aganst the narrative that all that's wrong with the economy is that gas and groceries are more pricey than they were 4 years ago. And really that's all the working poor and middle class want, lower prices in those area.

This in a the wealthiest nation on the planet where most retirees have no savings and have to rely solely on Socal Securtity and working into the 70s and 80s to try and make ends meet. Where homelessness is a large and growing problem. Where people still have to make decisions about whether to pay the rent or go to to doctor, because they can't afford to do both. And where the percentage of the country owned by the top 1% is the highest it's been in a century; where a former president who's a billionaire routinelty doesn't pay any federal income taxes; and where that same person promises to give the wealthiest in America another big tax break is he's re-elected.

Are we really supposed to accept that all the middle class wants and needs is for gas to be 50 cents a gallon cheaper and for groceries to cost what they did in 2020?

 

I’ve said multiple times, housing&rental prices skyrocketing is the main outrage. It’s also mostly a local/county/state issue and not a federal issue.