Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

Very fine people marching in Springfield:

Last night windows were smashed and acid thrown on Haitian owned cars. Now these Neo-Nazis are on the streets of Springfield. Trump and company are sponsoring America's own "Kristallnacht." It's disturbing and-frightening. https://t.co/RghRPWVnsG

— Luis Moreno (@LuisMorenolg) September 14, 2024

 

How? Right now everyone has it as a jump ball, except Nate, who gives Trump a 3 in 5 chance to win. They have it 5 out of 10 for Trump, he has it 6 out of 10.

THESE ARENT PREDICTIONS OF VOTE PERCENTAGES. THEYRE THE ODDS OF EITHER ONE WINNING.

 

I don’t know this for a fact or anything but I’d bet a million internet dollars they focus grouped it, and approaching voters as if they are reasonable, informed people didn’t work.

 

Shouldn’t be the media asking them to step down?

Notice how this KKK flier reads exactly like Donald Trump and JD Vance’s messaging. Trump, Vance, Musk, and others amplified a lie spread by the KKK and other racists in order to demonize and terrorize Black people and immigrants in Ohio. https://t.co/IMWOdiL2RE

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) September 14, 2024

 

That last line there, Nate from 2008 would never write that. In part because he really was trying to look at things in a new way, and not “win the internet.” And in part because now he’s one of the most smug mother********ers on Planet Earth, because let’s face it, the mystery ain’t in why Dems have so few, but why GOPs have so many, and the answer is the same reason conservatives tried to game the betting markets in 2020. A key part of Trump’s strategy, arguably the centerpiece, is to create chaos that either his courts, or his party mates in the House, can leverage to put him back in the White House. It’s of a piece with some GOP state legislatures changing when mail in votes would be counted in 2020 to create the false red shift narrative on election night.

In short, Nate, the GOPs figured out how to manipulate you, and you’re so smug it worked.

 

After 9/11, one of the victims of vigilantism was as a Sikh, or from India, something like that.

There’s a non zero chance some moron will mistake my wife’s accent for a Haitian one.

 

He was Sikh
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Balbir_Singh_Sodhi

This is actually the most interesting death After the towers went down
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kil...fore midnight on September,to start a new job.

I actually heard a theory of how it was more likely a cop killed him than someone in Crown Heights Brooklyn.

 

I have not been able to confirm this anywhere.

 

Trump’s Project 2025 — but Schoolhouse Rock…
pic.twitter.com/MuXpVpxAjx

— Rex Chapman🏇🏼 (@RexChapman) September 15, 2024

 

Exactly. And it's worth remembering the same 538 analysis in 2016 favored Hillary something like 70-30.

If Harris does win, Silver will be using Dave's point to explain there was nothing wrong with his forecast.

In general, the public massively overestimates the accuracy of numbers. Polling companies aren't up front about it because otherwise almost every poll's conclusion would be "we can't tell" and that's just not newsworthy.

 

Nate Silver is just another American that Covid broke. It wasn’t too long ago that Nate was posting on Daily Kos about how stupid the “Unskewers” were, now he’s embracing junk polls…

 

otherwise known as anywhere between a 17% and a 13% difference between Silver and the rest of the modelers…

If we were talking about Silver being Trump 51% and Harris 49% and the rest being 51% Harris and 49% Trump, that’s one thing, but he’s an extreme outlier right now.

 

Not even step down…. just need media with enough f’n guts to confront Vance (no point bothering with Trump) and let him know that the lie he helped spread is causing chaos and endangering the people hes supposed to represent… I suppose thats too much to ask from our so called “journalists”…
I hope Waltz makes note of this and throws it in his face during the debate

 

Americans, your opportunity to prevent Trump from denaturalizing your fellow citizens is the election on Nov 5th. After that no one is safe. Everyone will be vulnerable as the fascists go thru purity tests to determine who they want to be American. Hint: the facists don’t want… pic.twitter.com/Wvq844MSSe

— Alexander S. Vindman 🇺🇸 (@AVindman) September 14, 2024

 

An injunction to protect grandpa?

If this is true, Loomer is going to go full scorched Earth on all of them, and I cannot wait! pic.twitter.com/evQbLTFvEq

— AntifaPuddin’Pop (@Andie00471) September 14, 2024

 

Also, at the time, there was a professor who used a similar method and had Hillary at 98% or something. Nate’s model was superior because he didnt treat each state poll as an independent variable, which in retrospect was obvious the right choice. So when Trump found 2-3% the polls hadn’t captured in the industrial Midwest, Silver’s model realized that there was a good chance a small polling miss in Pennsylvania meant a small polling miss in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and Wisconsin too, so he gave Trump a better chance of winning all three of those states than the professor.

So in this election, to me, Georgia and NC are going to track pretty closely to each other, as are NV and AZ, and so on.

 

Apparently this is old but revived news. Did you know that Trump says Justin Trudeau’s father is Fidel Castro?

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/13/trump-trudeau-castro-conspiracy-00179118

 

Welcome to the resistance!!!

🚨George Will has endorsed Kamala Harris for president. Watch out for flying pigs.
The ultra-conservative, and baseball fan, comes to his decision reluctantly. He sees the need to dump Trump:

"Traditional conservatives can envision the least unpalatable November outcome...their… pic.twitter.com/Ke5NdcEuXU

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) September 15, 2024

 

Well.. considering Loomer is reportedly bragging to friends about getting near Trump’s mushroom…

 

Kamala Harris' Surprisingly Strong Polling in State Dems Lost for 60 Years
New polling conducted by Alaska Survey Research from September 11 to 12, after the ABC News debate between Harris and Trump, showed the Democrat down by 5 points with likely voters in the northwestern state. Harris had the support of 42 percent of respondents, whereas Trump had the backing of 47 percent.

Q:  If the November 2024 general election for US President was held today, for whom would you vote?

Among 1,254 LV's:

Donald Trump 47 (48)
Kamala Harris 42 (44)
Robert Kennedy Jr 5 (4)
Undecided 6 (5)

— Alaska Survey Research (@The_Real_ASR) September 13, 2024

 

How much viagra does he take?

 

The problem is that these percent-win numbers are useless because they are being attached to a one-off event. If you said that Harris has a 99% chance of victory and Trump ends up winning you are not wrong because he did have a 1% chance of winning and that's what happened. It's an unfalsifiable prediction.

Suppose a week ago you said the odds of the Powerball ending up 29 34 38 48 56 16 is 1 in 292,201,338. That is accurate. It is an infinitesimally small chance. But the last Powerball actually was 29 34 38 48 56 16. If you based an action on just those odds for just that one spin you would be a loser. But the prediction was still correct and if you tried to fix it you would be wrong.

 

I keep hearing about this and all I can say is the WTF and I don't even wanna know!