Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

Wow, you get shit like that in your phone in the States?
Adds too?

 

And our election campaigns go on month after month. We don’t only gets texts from a candidate’s official campaign, but from god knows how many PACs, special interest groups and other party nominees.

I will note that when I moved to Ohio, 20 years ago, it was one of the most important swing states. Meaning the amount of ads, candidate visits, door to door canvassing, etc. was just nuts. It’s Pennsylvania’s turn now. I hate Ohio’s rightward lunge, but I don’t miss the attention during major elections.

 

And texts from pollsters (I'm in NC).

 

And, near as I can tell, a fair amount of nefarious texts pretending to be about the election.

 

I rarely get spam texts personally, I think in this case my number just ended up on a list.

 

My wife thought it would be funny to give money to the Dems with my contact info. I now get an average of 4-5 calls and 8-10 texts every day.

 

Maybe PA is one of those weird states that like to diversify their votes a bit?

Like how VA with 2 (D) senators and voted overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020 ended up electing a republican governor in 2021

 

Yeah, but in general folks don’t like carpetbaggers running for Senate, and they REALLY don’t like them running for governor. Plus Democrats have both Michigan senate seats plus a nice bench, most of whom are women. Realistically, I don’t see him winning one of the three big statewide offices there, not on a timeline that works for him.

HUD secretary in the first Harris administration, then State in the second one, then he runs in 2032. IMO that’s his best path.

 

In poor, white areas, Trump’s biggest fans are NOT the poor there. Instead, it’s people who are fairly well off compared to their neighbors.

https://www.vox.com/politics/369797/trump-support-class-local-rich-arlie-hochschild

 

I don't know why this lesson isn't sticking. We've known it for like 8 years now. It gets posted to this forum over and over. Maybe it's easier to dismiss Trump voters if we think they are yokels, but his base are really the ones making low 6 figures who think having mcmansion and golf club level money means they get to run other people's lives.

 

about that reply the Tw@t gave to the childcare question -- you expect straightforward answers? the stable genius explains it all to the feeble-minded amongst us:

“I do the weave. You know what the weave is? I’ll talk about, like, nine different things that they all come back brilliantly together. And it’s like friends of mine that are like English professors, they say: ‘It’s the most brilliant thing I’ve ever seen,’” he told a bemused audience.

“But the fake news, you know what they say, ‘He rambled.’ It’s not rambling. What you do is you get off a subject to mention another little tidbit, then you get back on to the subject, and you go through this and you do it for two hours, and you don’t even mispronounce one word.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/sep/07/election-trump-speeches

interesting stuff - but now we have to make sure we don't mix up "the weave" with his dance routine which I think he calls "the wank".

 

“The double ghost wank”

Someone should really tell Trump when he’s dancing, he looks like he’s masturbating two men…with his tiny hands. pic.twitter.com/HwjRENaPCR

— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) April 28, 2023

 

Bill Maher has been saying that for a long time.

 

Nice words, the best words…

There is a TikTok account for a group called TrumpWords where children quote Trump in videos and the group asks on its site; would you choose Trump as a role model for your kids? pic.twitter.com/PIj8XetuAH

— Brandi Buchman (@Brandi_Buchman) September 7, 2024

 

Pete ain't a carpetbagger though. He moved to Michigan on account of his husband.

 

Seems like Nate is doing some unskewing himself:

THERE IS. NO. WAY.

He included **PATRIOT POLLING**

I CANT!

AND AND. PATRIOT POLLING IS WORTH MORE THAN YOUGOV. HOWWWWWWWWhttps://t.co/fYuP56F5zg pic.twitter.com/qF4YdLFHpl

— Idejder (@Idejder) September 6, 2024

 

That's good in a way though, right? Keep the Democrats on their toes and fighting for PA until election day.

Don't want to repeat the mistakes of 2016 of being too overconfident and pouring resources in non-key states instead.

 

I live in Scranton. Back in 2016, I used to hang out in a coffee shop around the corner from the regional HRC campaign headquarters. Through early September, the staff came in every day, totally pumped. By mid-September on, though, they looked increasingly grim. Basically, national polls looked good. But on the ground, things looked horribly different. And the national headquarters kept ignoring reports because polling experts said, “it’s in the bag.” By mid-October, these people looked like they had food poisoning every day. And headquarters kept ignoring.

in one of the postmortems I read, that process replayed itself throughout the “blue firewall.” National polls were favorable. Campaign polls were favorable. On the ground, though, it looked pretty bad.

Guess which perception was right? That same article quoted some guy named Bill Clinton to the effect that you never act like it’s in the bag. You don’t even dare to hope that it’s in the bag unless all three points line up favorably. But HRC’s campaign managers kept telling the people on the ground to chill.

IIRC, those same advisers helped Youngkin win the governor’s race in VA a few years later. Dumbasses.

 

I should add to this, most of Michigan is welcoming to newcomers. If Pete was pulling a Dr. Oz, yeah, different story. But I've got family that live up there, are politically active, and one of them mentioned to me that he was canvassing with them up in Traverse City. Which is a whole different game.

If he ran for say the house seat up there, I don't think there'd be a problem, but it's unlikely he'd win it given that it went super red last election. Although Bergman's ancient, there's also the fact that it's rumored that he doesn't live in the district.

 

I was in Traverse City for a week in the late 90s. I was surprised to see fliers announcing militia meetings, and a few confederate flags, etc. On the way home we visited friends in East Lansing. They told me I shouldn’t have been surprised.

 

Yeah try explaining that to voters. Maybe Michiganders won’t have a problem with that.

 

Terry Nichols was from Lapeer, a town not far from where I grew up. One of the Whitmer kidnap plotters was from my hometown.

Rural Michigan is a different world.

 

Mallory McMorrow isn't even from Michigan (New Jersey) and she managed to win elections no problem. Beating Joe Knollenberg's son even. And I happily voted for McMorrow in my district. She got the carpetbagger accusations, even though she moved here with her husband. And she is involved! She's at Detroit City games (Led chants even), she's going to local Dem group meetings, and she was at a counterprotest even. That ain't a carpetbagger. Buttigieg is canvassing in Traverse City with local Dem groups. Not a carpetbagger.

Hill Harper (For those that don't know, he's an actor in stuff like CSI) just tried running for the open Senate seat and got walloped in the Dem primary this year. The result was 76% to 23%. The only Michigan ties he has is running a coffee shop in Detroit and him barely living (Hardly home, travelling) in Detroit since 2017. That's an obvious carpetbagger. A person moving to a state on account of their partner (McMorrow and Buttigieg) is a completely different matter. Dr. Oz was a very obvious carpetbagger (******** Oprah).

Most voters can tell if someone is a carpetbagger. It's one of the reasons Oz lost (I don't think it gets closer if he doesn't have the Oprah fame). It's why Hill Harper got destroyed in the primary.

EDIT: On a related note, a thing I hate being from Detroit and Michigan is people who left and whose views of the area are colored from when they left. Case in point, someone mentioning how bad Detroit was in 2004. Yeah, it was, but it's 2024. The phrase, "Can't go home again" really needs to be hammered home more.