Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

The NYT really seems to have a vendetta against Biden and his campaign. The later NYT / Sienna polls is being called out by experts questions its methodology and the subsequent NYT headlines.

A very good article from Jay Kuo, dissecting the polls massive flaws.

Do Better, New York Times
The newest NYT/Siena “battleground poll” is full of biases and absurd results. Buckle up.
https://statuskuo.substack.com/p/do-better-new-york-times?r=9fd0b&triedRedirect=true

Morning Joe spent a long segment as well questioning it...

 

UofU not in the discussion?

 

I'm assuming Boulder is popular enough that it doesn't need to attract out of state students with in-state tuition?

 

Anyways! Back to Presidential election. Biden and Trump have agreed to 2 debates in June, hosted by CNN, and September, hosted by ABC.

The announcement came after Biden announced he would be joining Trump and would not participate in the debates conducted by the non-partisan debate commission.

https://apnews.com/article/2024-ele...-biden-trump-6b1d1dbb2ed61c7637041b23662d7da8

 

Woke and rigged are the GQP favorite words:

Lol didn't even take a day before they started making up excuses.

Sad. Low energy.

— Bill DeMayo (@BDeMayo) May 16, 2024

Hannity: Its bad enough that he’s agreed to go on two liberal networks and then he said fox. I think fox will be fair pic.twitter.com/25vmc5pGHD

— Acyn (@Acyn) May 16, 2024

 

Bibi? No. He's not being very smart here. He's worked himself into a corner where he pretty much has to flatten the remainder of Gaza and, even then, Hamas and other militant groups are just going to keep getting more and more recruits from the residents of Gaza. Given that any solution to the "Palestinian problem" would involve Israel having to abandon the West Bank settlements, Bibi is basically forced to permanently occupy Gaza and face a growing militancy in the West Bank with less and less allies to do so...

 

As long as he doesn't lose the regular Nazis, Bibi will be fine.

 

Dems in the world like America, don't really commit to cheating to win. It's their great flaw. The inability to fight fire with fire.

 

Which one? Or do you mean both?

 

Biden won tipping-point state Wisconsin by 0.63 percent. He probably would have won the popular vote without COVID, but I think Trump would have won the Electoral College without COVID.

I check 538 on Fridays. Some new polls were good, and some were bad. Trump's net favorability fell from -11.7 to -12.6, which is his worst since November. Numbers cannot prove cause and effect, but maybe Trump's trial is hurting him. Biden's net approval improved from -18.0 to -16.9, so his deficit to Trump fell from 6.3 to 4.3. The generic ballot had Democrats improve to +1.0, which would likely take back the House. Decision Desk HQ/The Hill (hereafter "DD") has a poll from Iowa that 538 doesn't have, and it shows Trump only up 2, which lowered his DD lead to 3.1. A scary thing is that DD has Biden up only 0.6 in Minnesota, and that is a state that does not have polls with RFK. Considering all the Democrats who voted uncommitted in the primary, I think polls with Biden, Trump, RFK, Stein, West, and a Libertarian would show Trump leading. Minnesota is the only state that voted for Walter Mondale in 1984, so it has the longest streak of voting for Democrats. The last Republican to win Minnesota was Nixon in 1972, and the last Republican to win Minnesota without committing crime in the process was Eisenhower in 1956. DD also has Biden up only 1.8 in Virginia without polls having RFK. 538 does not have an average for Iowa, Minnesota, or Virginia. It will be very hard for Biden to win if he loses Minnesota and/or Virginia. DD and 538 agree about the tipping-point state being Pennsylvania, where DD has Trump up 2.5, and 538 has Trump up 1.8. Biden is doing so poorly in Nevada (down 6.9 in 538 and down 8.6 in DD) that it might be a good choice to give up there, and focus on holding everything except Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada to get 270. If Trump outperforms polls like he did in 2016 and 2020, he could have the best performance by a Republican since Bush in 1988.

 

Maybe he can vote from Florida?

NEW: @RobertKennedyJr has been voting for years from a residence in NY state- a residence where he doesn't live and where neither neighbors nor law enforcement have ever seen himhttps://t.co/lRk1fqzgUg

— Lis Smith (@Lis_Smith) May 19, 2024

 

Take this with a grain of salt…

.@Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Winner:

Donald Trump 54% (+15)
Joe Biden 39%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 2%https://t.co/ifkXXe8Ptf https://t.co/DC5xM0J0r6 pic.twitter.com/xObMYBhRAU

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 20, 2024

Biden really needs to figure things out this summer and going into fall before the elections.

 

More like a sac of salt.

 

A Trump campaign video used the phrase “unified reich.” The AP discusses what that appears to refer to. “Appears?” Seriously? You worthless mother********ers.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-el...antisemitism-31002afb91b642c0314223d19e51f427

These are betting markets, not polls.