Thank you Dr. Gamera. I was thinking that Canada can't get more than 8 points above fourth without thinking about the fact that they go to USA in March. I thought about if Canada could qualify even with a Costa Rica win to get them to 16, but Canada can't qualify that way because Mexico, Panama, and Costa Rica could beat USA and pass Canada. In chronological order, it's Jamaica vs. Costa Rica, USA vs. Honduras, El Salvador vs. Canada, and Mexico vs. Panama. If Costa Rica doesn't win, Canada could clinch later that night. If Costa Rica wins, Jamaica is eliminated. Since there has never been an Octagonal before, this could be the first time a team qualifies with help from four games on the same day. If Canada wins, Mexico vs. Panama is a draw, USA loses, and Costa Rica loses or draws, the only way Canada could not qualify is being the bottom team in a four-way tie for first. Canada could go from third to first in Concacaf in ELO. To do that, Canada must win by at least 2 and have Mexico not win; or win by 1, have Mexico not win, and have USA not win. Canada can qualify or take the Concacaf lead in ELO, but not both.
Game day in El Salvador. As EvanJ set out, there is a series of results that could allow us to qualify for the World Cup today. It seems unlikely all the results would go our way to make that happen. Instead, I just want to see us keep our foot on the gas, win this game, collect the three points, and look forward to a final qualifying window where we need very little to go our way to book out ticket to Qatar. I have no idea what lineup changes Herdman may go with except that Vitoria is suspended on yellows so he won't be getting a third straight start.
I think Herdman will shake it a bit but not too much. Kennedy back in for Kamal... Henry for Vitoria, Eustaquio for Osorio and Atiba for Kaye... not sure he messes with the wing backs and attackers... i'm sure he'd like to get an early lead and give some of those guys a break before they head back to their clubs.
0-2 Canada wins. I have a question: was there an el Salvadoran sniper in the stands with his crosshairs on the ref to make sure he didn't give out any cards to El Salvador? Because that's the only explanation I have for some of the most blatant fouling I've ever seen.
Another 2-0 victory. That first goal was one of the oddest I've ever seen. The difference between this year and past years is that it was for Canada instead of against. Our magic number is now 2. That's about all I need to say as I wait excitedly for the March qualifying window.
Here are Thursday's start times: Jamaica vs. El Salvador at 7:05 P.M. Panama vs. Honduras at 9:05 P.M. Mexico vs. USA at 10:00 P.M. Costa Rica vs. Canada at 10:05 P.M. If Panama does not win, you need a draw to qualify. If Panama wins, you need a win to qualify. If you win, you will clicnh over Panama, Costa Rica, and Mexico or USA if that game has a loser.
OneSoccer has the scenarios for you to qualify: 1. Win 2. Draw and Panama does not beat Honduras: you would be 9 above Costa Rica and 8 or 9 points above Panama 3. Draw and USA does not beat Mexico: that would limit USA to 25 and Panama to 23 without their head-to-head game on Matchday 13, and Canada would have 26 to clinch over one of them 4. Loss, Panama does not beat Honduras, and USA does not beat Mexico: If Panama does not win, you clinch over them, and I'll break this into two parts. If USA loses to Mexico, USA would be 4 points behind you, so they would need at least a draw at Costa Rica, and Costa Rica must win all three to catch you, so you would clinch over USA or Costa Rica. If USA draws with Mexico, it would make you have 25, USA 22, Mexico 22, Costa Rica 19, and Panama 17 or 18 and guaranteed to be below you. Either OneSoccer or I am wrong, because I do not see how that would qualify you. If you lose all three to finish with 25, USA beats Panama and loses at Costa Rica, Mexico gets at least 3 points at Honduras and hosting El Salvador combined, and Costa Rica wins at El Salvador and hosting USA; you, USA, and Costa Rica would be in a four-way tie for first with Mexico, or a three-way tie for second behind Mexico. Given that your goal differential is 13 better than Costa Rica, you could win the tiebreaker if you lose all three and they win all three, but goal differential cannot be clinched before the last day. If somebody can explain how you would qualify with a loss, Panama not beating Honduras, and Mexico vs. USA being a draw, tell me.
Simple. If Panama doesn't beat Honduras (assume a draw), even if we lost to Costa Rica, Panama would be 7 (or 8 if they actually lost) points behind us with only 6 points left to earn. The only way Canada doesn't auto-qualify this window is if Canada loses all three games and Panama wins all three. There is no other way for us to fail to qualify short of pulling a Russia and starting a war somewhere.
Obviously I want us to win and qualify for the World Cup - and we certainly can. But this will be a good test for us. - World Cup qualifier - away - in Central America - against a team that is playing well and is still in it and will be desperate for three points themselves A win here will be huge for many reasons.
A disappointing result but a solid performance by the team. Even down a man for most of the game, we were woodwork away from getting a result. Now to take out our frustrations against Jamaica at home on Sunday!
Woo hoo! A comprehensive 4-0 win that really should have been six or eight to nothing. Oh yes, and qualification to the World Cup. A huge moment for Canadian soccer and one of many more to come.
Longer post game interviews (like 8-10 minutes) with four Canadian players after their 4-0 win on Sunday can be found here. March 27, 2022 Men's World Cup Qualifier--Canada vs Jamaica post game press conference (by Rocket Robin) (rocketrobinsoccerintoronto.com) better than those 10 second blips on the sports news stations.