Canada in World Cup 2022 Qualifying (Format Announced) [R]

Discussion in 'Canada' started by EvanJ, Jul 10, 2019.

  1. Roger Allaway

    Roger Allaway Member+

    Apr 22, 2009
    Warminster, Pa.
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That Haitian own goal was the worst goalkeeper gaffe I've ever seen. First he let a goal-bound back pass go through his legs. Then, he had a chance to recover and clear the ball before it crossed the line and whiffed. We've all seen keepers do one or the other before, but I've never seen someone do both on the same play before.

    .
     
  2. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    Realistically we are fighting for third place. As such, with this schedule, we will actually have a good idea of where we stand by the end of September as we have two must-win home games.

    As to where to host, personally I'd love Kingston or Toronto or Ottawa so that I can easily attend the games in person. For reasons of weather, however, Edmonton in November has a nice sound to it.
     
  3. Dr. Gamera

    Dr. Gamera Member+

    Oct 13, 2005
    Wheaton, Maryland
    Congratulations on finally making it to the final round of CONCACAF qualifying, Canada! As indicated above, have been hoping for this for a long time.
     
  4. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #79 EvanJ, Jun 16, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2021
    If you get two wins and a draw at USA, you can think about the top two, albeit there's no difference between second and third.

    https://canadasoccer.com/news/canad...on-the-road-to-the-fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022/ is titled "Canada Returns to the Concacaf Final Round on the Road to the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022." Canada and Canadians broke and tied team records. Canada won six consecutive games for the third time in team history and won six qualifiers for a World Cup for the third time in team history after qualifiers for 1994 and 1998. Canada scored 31 goals this year, which broke the team record of 28 in a year. If Canada loses in the Gold Cup Quarterfinals and plays four Gold Cup games along with eight World Cup Qualifiers, that will be 12 more games this year. Milan Borjan broke the Canadian clean sheets record with his 24th. Cyle Larin broke Canada's record for goals in qualifying for one World Cup with 7 and tied Alex Bunbury's career record of 11 World Cup Qualifying goals. I hate when sources put titles in all capitals so I have to type titles rather than copying and pasting.

    https://www.eloratings.net/CONCACAF has ELO ratings for Concacaf. Your one year change is up 15 to 43rd, and you passed Costa Rica and Honduras for third in Concacaf. The gain of 15 spots is the best in Concacaf (USA gained 14), and tied for seventh in the world. You gained 22 points in the first leg and 25 in the second leg, which is the first time you gained at least 22 points in consecutive games since Gold Cup 2009. You've scored 513 goals in 412 games, which is 1.25 per game. Your 31 goals in six games this year increased your average from 1.19 to 1.25. Adding 100 points for home field would make you ELO favorites and underdogs for seven games each. You're 124 behind USA, so you will be underdogs in both games to Mexico and USA. Your lead over Costa Rica, Honduras, and Jamaica is under 100, meaning the home team will be favored both times. You're over 100 above Panama and El Salvador, so you will be favored both times. All of that is if the gaps going into the games are what they are now.




     
  5. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    ^ Based on ppg from previous editions of the hex, others have calculated that it will require about 23 points to finish third. Life never works in quite such a straight forward fashion, but things might look like:

    Win all homes games not against the US or Mexico = 15 points
    Beat El Salvador and Panama away = 6 points
    Pull out two draws somewhere = 2 points

    Total = 23

    Oh, and smash Honduras in Honduras strictly for the revenge of it. 26 points

    Like I said, things seldom work out so neatly. Maybe we drop some expected points at home but unexpectedly pull out an upset away somewhere or against the US or Mexico at home. Whatever. The point is there is a reasonable, no-miracles-required path there for us to reach the World Cup.
     
  6. rickie22

    rickie22 Member

    Vancouver Whitecaps FC
    Nov 25, 2017
    Vancouver, Canada
    One of those November matches at home will be against Costa Rica. If it snows, I'm sure they'll enjoy a repeat of that!
     
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  7. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    The average daily high in Edmonton in November is zero. If there was precipitation on game day, it would probably be snow.
     
    rickie22 repped this.
  8. legendofzola

    legendofzola Member

    Jun 4, 2006
    Cape Breton
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Just looking forward to it... feel we can play with anyone and i'd be happy if we kept Toronto as home base. We now have a team that likes to be on the ball so having decent weather and a decent pitch is what i would prefer... more important is to make sure it is all fans of Canada there and cheering wildly. If it is Toronto i'll make my way from NS if allowed.
     
  9. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As punishment for homophobic chants in Olympic Qualifiers, Mexico must play their first two qualifiers without fans, which includes hosting you in October. FIFA is investigated Mexico more, and the possibility of a 3 point penalty was brought up. What chance do you think you have at a win or draw in Mexico without fans?
     
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  10. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    There are three factors that make it difficult for Canada to get points away at Azteca:

    1. The fans.
    2. The altitude.
    3. The fact that Mexico is a significantly better team than we are.

    This removes one, and probably the least significant, of these factors. It makes it more likely than we could create an upset but for us an upset would be snatching a draw.

    (Parenthetically, I hope they don't deduct points. The fans chanted, they were banned. Taking points feels like punishing the players when they weren't the ones doing something wrong.)
     
  11. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's true, but plenty of players get punished for things they didn't do. England gives clubs penalties for entering administration, which isn't players' fault, and sometimes players get the bad combination of a points penalty and not being paid. The NCAA gives teams postseason bans for scandals involving coaches and/or prior players. I'm a fan of Hofstra in the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA), and the CAA does not let teams in the CAA Tournament in any sport if they announce they are leaving the CAA after that season, and changing conferences is not the players' decision. In many situations it's impossible to punish guilty people without punishing not guilty people. I mean "guilty" or "not guilty" in general, not as the outcome of a trial.
     
  12. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States


    They said it might be under one in ten Canadians who were aware of the second leg against Haiti. One guy said a family asked him if the game he was looking forward to at 9:00 P.M. was in Euro 2020. You don't have to be a soccer fan to know that 9:00 P.M. Eastern is in the middle of the night in Europe.
     
  13. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  14. nfitz

    nfitz Member

    Aug 20, 2007
    Toronto
  15. justink

    justink Member

    Jul 15, 2000
    Davies out 4 weeks. Maybe longer. Will he play in September? Probably won't be fully match fit.

     
  16. legendofzola

    legendofzola Member

    Jun 4, 2006
    Cape Breton
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Yikes..need to hope that being young and having the best of medical care gets him back on the field.
     
  17. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    legendofzola repped this.
  18. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    I'm very much looking forward to tomorrow's game. Bring on Honduras!

    No particular surprises in our roster:

    https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/cana...r-opening-octagonal-2022-world-cup-qualifiers

    Our strike force is (in no particular order): Larin, Cavallini, Hoilette, David, Davies, and Buchanan. As a long time NT fan, that still leaves me shaking my head in wonder. Herdman has used the early WCQ and Gold Cup games well to integrate new players and re-establish veteran relationships. If our defence can hold up, we are looking good.
     
  19. CANPRO

    CANPRO Member+

    Dec 23, 2002
    6/9 points is mandatory for this window.
     
  20. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    Absolutely. If we can get a "bonus" point or three against the US, then great, but we absolutely have to (and can) win the other two at home.
     
  21. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #97 EvanJ, Sep 2, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2021
    90 minute preview:


    Alexander Lopez scored a penalty kick in the 40th. I saw the goal, but not what caused the penalty. Then he needed to be carried off the field, and he was subbed off. I didn't see what happened to him. Your 4-3-3 lineup is #18 Borjan, #2 Johnston/#4 Miller/#5 Vitoria/#22 Laryea, #7 Eustaquio/#13 Hutchinson/#19 Davies, and #11 Buchanan/#17 Larin/#20 David. That's from www.flashscore.com and OneSoccer calls it a 4-4-2 with Buchanan in the midfield. The half ended with Honduras getting the first yellow for either team, and Canada got a free kick that led to a corner kick that led to a corner kick without scoring. It's Canada 0-1 Honduras at halftime. Flash Score says you had more possession, free kicks, and corner kicks, but Honduras had more shots (8 to 4) and more shots on goal (3 to 2).

    In my prediction contest, all eight people predicted you to win. One person predicted 1-0, three people predicted 2-1, and four people including me predicted 3-1. If Honduras scores again, nobody will predict the score.
     
  22. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #98 EvanJ, Sep 2, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2021
    Larin scored a penalty kick in the 65th. It's 1-1 in the 85th, and I plan on editing this post after the game.

    Edit: It ended 1-1. Panama vs. Costa Rica is scoreless at halftime. If that game is a draw, Honduras arguably is the most likely team to be the best other than USA and Mexico.
     
  23. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    Not a good start at all. Not a complete disaster because it was a draw rather than a loss but, to make the "plan" work, we now have to substitute a win away in Honduras for the win we should have had last night.

    I am frankly very surprised. I expected us to boss this game, not snag a draw from a penalty.
     
  24. legendofzola

    legendofzola Member

    Jun 4, 2006
    Cape Breton
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I was spreading the word to everyone i could talk to, game was put on a large broadcaster... i'm sure many casuals tuned out by half... Just an awful awful half of football. Second half had the right energy and urgency...

    USA played a full 90 disjointed minutes so what each team will field on Sunday is uncertain. Expect changes for both sides.
     

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