A 1998 report called, "Project 2010," looked at what the United States had to build and accomplish to win the World Cup by 2010. I know before the World Cup and during qualifying many US fans (including myself) thought that Project 2010 was a pipe dream that was not a reality. With the way the US team has played in this tournament and for what group they are drawing could this become a reality or is it still a pipe dream? How far can the US go?
?? I'm wondering the same thing. I think we have about a 10 to 5 percent chance of winning. I also think we have around a 45% chance of going home Saturday. That's soccer.
Remember the 2nd half of the Confed Cup Final with Brazil? We had no answers for THAT. Until we come up with some....winning the whole thing is highly unlikely. That being said, I think I'd love to see these guys have another crack at it vs. Brazil.
i know a lot of folks and the media are all hyped up right now. honestly, i don't know. why not? at the same time, i just want to take one game at a time. ghana look like a good squad. we'll have our work cut out. i'll vote if we get to the final. in the meantime, i don't want to get ahead of myself or the team.
After watching the ESPN 30 for 30 documentary, "The Two Escobars", about Columbia and WC 94, it is clear that Columbia had a much better 10-15 year plan to win the World Cup. If we don't start getting drug cartels involved in youth soccer and MLS, then we have no chance. Of course it all backfired for Columbia, but sometimes that happens when you dream big. Columbia was expected to contend for the cup in 94. If US Soccer was serious they would've gotten Lehman Brothers or Bernie Madoff to invest in Project 2010. Project 2010 is a pipe dream. Whoever created it was smoking something through a pipe. The US (est. pop. 307 million) can barely put together a functioning defense. How about Project 3010? Project Natal? Project Runway? Now you're talking!
If that. If all the remaining teams were equal, and each team had a 50/50 chance at winning each game, each team would have a 6.25% chance to win it all. Since I figure we'll be (at best) 50/50 in our second- and third-round games, and then decidedly less than 50/50 in the semis and final, should we make it that far, I'd put our chances somewhere around 1-4%. It also puts at around a 20-30% to make the semifinal, which would (in my mind anyway) make Project 2010 a success. If you're in the semifinal, you're a contender to win it - which was the stated goal of the project. Edit - and just for grins, I checked the predictions of Nate Silver's model. He has us at 17% to reach the semi and 1.7% to win it all.
I think that was a learning experience. We honestly thought that we could defend for 45 minutes and with Tim Howard in goal, I don't blame the sentiment. We learned that against a Brazil or Argentina, we're going to have to have some meaningful possession to relieve the pressure. Even then, the game winner wasn't until the 86th minute with a little help from the post. We can beat Brazil. Maybe it's only once every 5 games or so, but we can beat brazil.
It's not 50-50 or even close, but we do have a very real chance to win the World Cup. Winning the group was huge--in order to get to the semis we have to get past two very tough teams in Ghana and probably Uruguay, but we won't have to beat more than two true world powers to win this thing.
Sounds about right to me. The 1.7% to win it all seems a little generous, but who knows. Only two real "cinderellas" have even made the final and none have won it. Two out of 36 finalists. Given the history (granted, small sample size) a cinderella makes the final 5% of the time. If the cinderella wins 1 out of 5, it leaves one percent. Since 1970 an average of one underdog makes the semis tournament. Looks like that will happen this year, too. We have a one in four shot.
Playing Ghana next then South Korea/Uruguay in the quarterfinals, then in the semis it would get tough (Brazil or Portugal, Netherlands, Italy or Paraguay, Chile or Spain). This is where the upset would have to happen.
You are underselling Ghana and South Korea. Yea, I get it that there are traditional powers, but honestly, when you get to this point you can truly say that any team can beat any other team. Things get tough starting yesterday (as if the group were easy ).
It's funny that the concept of "Project 2010" hasn't been talked about for some time. Keep in mind that the goal of the project was to have a team capable of fighting for the WC by now. Everyone mocked US Soccer at the time, but I would have to say that they have done pretty well and that the goal was worth setting. The thing about this type of pie in the sky goal is that it gets people focused on a path. You might not get the goal, but you end up much closer to it than you would have without creating the plan. If only Agoos was still in his prime.
He also thought we were more likely than not to be eliminated yesterday. Not the worst prediction in the world. But if you're going to hold up pseudo-statistics (and I'm not blaming you or Nate, but that's all any statistical model that pretends to predict the Cup is, given the paucity of results to go on), people at least need to know the failures of the model. You were on more solid ground when you just gave the straight up percentages for any random team in the sweet 16 - about 6.25%, and then gave your opinion on the likelihood we'd win the two games where we have a reasonable idea of opponents. I actually think we're more than 50/50 against Ghana. I think Uruguay would be the favorite against us, but we'd be likely to beat So. Korea if they won. So I give us better than random odds (25%) of making the semis. Maybe a 28-30% chance of getting there. From there, the random chance of our winning the Cup is 1/4 of 28-30% - so 7-7.5%. I imagine one of Brazil, Holland, Portugal, Spain are facing us, though that's not a certainty. I give us significantly lower than the random odds, but I'd figure us as maybe an overall 3%. Once you're playing a mid-week game in early July, as Mickey Rourke said in that great American film Angel Heart -- "It's Wednesday. It's anything can happen day." But I'm a realist. This post will be interpreted as wildly optimistic even though I've said we're unlikely to even make the semis, let alone go past. (Speaking of Anything Can Happen day, Slovakia scores again!)
Interesting article in the UK Guardian today: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/jun/24/world-cup-2010-mls-usa Thank the MLS for the rise of USA and Landon Donovan
No he didn't. He had us more likely to go through then not. But even if he didn't, so what? None of those numbers are guarantees - they are just likelihoods.
Options are Good? 50/50? or None? That is Bullsheet. Those are not enough options. The US has some chance ... but it is neither a good chance nor is it anywhere close to 50%. Lets try this: v Ghana 1 in 2 v Uruguay or So Korea 1 in 2 v Brasil or Dutch 1 in 6 v other finalist 1 in 4 --------- If you disagree -- just adjust the odds on each game and calculate your own. total odds 1 in 84 ( 2*2*6*4)
I voted "no chance", but I actually think it is more "a very small chance". Ghana is a 50-50 proposition. Uruguay or South Korea are about the same. If we make it to the semis the step up in quality is huge; stranger things may not have happened, but it is only two matches . . . can lightening to strike twice?
Jesus, worst poll ever. Not even Brazil has a 50/50 chance to in the World Cup... there are still 16 teams left!
No matter what happens today, Project 2010 is a success. Matter of fact it was a success a year early.