CAF WCQs For 2022 [R]

Discussion in 'Africa' started by EvanJ, Aug 21, 2019.

  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The format is what CAF used for 2014. 26 teams start in Round 2, and 28 teams start in Round 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(CAF)#Matches has the Round 1 matches, which will be from 2 to 10 September. The 14 aggregate winners and the top 26 teams will be drawn into 10 groups of 4. The group winners will play aggregates to determine the 5 qualifiers. October and November have Africa Cup of Nations qualifying, and the WCQ Group Stage starts in March. http://www.football-rankings.info/2019/08/caf-qualification-world-cup-2022.html has Round 1 probabilities:

    Zimbabwe* 93.11% vs. Somalia
    Eswatini* 82.40% vs. Djibouti
    Equatorial Guinea* 75.58% vs. South Sudan
    Rwanda* 74.41% vs. Seychelles
    Namibia* 71.44% vs. Eritrea
    Togo* 71.12% vs. Comoros
    Guinea-Bissau *66.47% vs. Sao Tome e Principe
    Mozambique* 64.76% vs. Mauritius
    Chad 58.90% vs. Sudan*
    Gambia: 55.80% vs. Angola*
    Botswana 54.65% vs. Malawi*
    Liberia 53.21% vs. Sierra Leone*
    Burundi 52.78% vs. Tanzania*
    Ethiopia 51.71% vs. Lesotho*

    I wrote that with the higher probability first, not to show who hosts what leg. The teams with the better FIFA Ranking are marked with a *, and those teams host the second leg. The formula expects the team with the better FIFA Ranking to advance in the first eight pairings and the team with the worse FIFA Ranking to advance in the last six pairings. By "first eight" and "last six," I mean the order I typed them in here. The pairings are not in any order related to qualification.
     
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  2. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here are first leg results from yesterday and today along with the dates of the second legs:

    Ethiopia 0-0 Lesotho (8 September)
    Somalia 1-0 Zimbabwe (Somalia's first ever WCQ win) (8 September)
    Eritrea 1-2 Nambia (10 September)
    Burundi 1-1 Tanzania (8 September)
    Djibouti 2-1 Eswatini (10 September)
    Liberia 3-1 Sierra Leone (8 September)
    Mauritius 0-1 Mozambique (10 September)
    Sao Tome e Principe 0-1 Guinea-Bissau (10 September)
    South Sudan 1-1 Equatorial Guinea (8 September)
    Chad 1-3 Sudan (10 September)
    Seychelles 0-3 Rwanda (10 September)

    In 11 games, no team scored more than 3. There are 14 pairs. Here are the dates for the 3 pairs that have not played their first legs yet with the first leg home team typed first:

    Botswana vs. Malawi: 7 September and 10 September
    Gambia vs. Angola: 6 September and 10 September
    Comors vs. Togo: 6 September and 10 September
     
  3. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  4. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #4 EvanJ, Sep 7, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2019
    https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/djibouti-spring-upset-as-world-cup-qualifying-begins-in-africa is titled "Djibouti spring upset as World Cup qualifying begins in Africa." It has links to highlights of Wednesday's eight games.

    https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/africa-world-cup-qualifying-round-1-matchday-2-3048946 is titled "Historic victory for Somalia, Sudan and Rwanda claim away wins." It has highlights of Thursday's three games.

    https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/...o-african-world-cup-qualifying-review-3049056 is titled "Advantage Angola as Comoros and Togo share spoils." It has highlights of yesterday's two games.

    Botswana is hosting Malawi and the game is scoreless in the 75th minute. That is the fourteenth and final first leg.

    Edit: https://www.fifa.com/news/the-week-in-numbers-x7583 says:

    "14 matches winless in World Cup qualifying is what Sudan had gone – three draws and 11 defeats – until a 3-1 win in Chad. Ramadan Alagab became the first player to score a hat-trick for Sudan in qualifying for the global finals, 62 years after their first preliminary.."

    Botswana 0-0 Malawi ended.
     
  5. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Lesotho 1-1 Ethiopia (1-1 aggregate, Ethiopia advance on away goals)

    Tanzania 1-1 Burundi (2-2 aggregate after both games were 1-1, no goals in extra time of the second leg, Tanzania won penalty kicks 3-0 after the minimum 3 shooters)

    Sierra Leone 1-0 Liberia (Liberia won aggregate 3-2)

    Equatorial Guinea 1-0 South Sudan (2-1 aggregate)

    The other ten second legs are tomorrow. The Group Stage begins on March 23 or shortly after depending on how the games are spread out. March 23 is 195 days after tomorrow.
     
  6. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Johns Creek, Georgia
    Nat'l Team:
    India
    So, footballrankings predicted that 6 Pot 2 teams would advance, of which only 2 (Liberia and Ethiopia) did. The third team from Pot 2 that ended up advancing, Djibouti, was the second least likely to advance. Somalia, the least likely, nearly advanced too. This is quite useful, thanks. It really illustrates the significance of today's upsets (and near-upsets).
     
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  7. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  8. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    https://www.fifa.com/news/the-week-in-numbers-x6289 says:

    "23 years had passed since Guinea-Bissau won a World Cup qualifier – they edged a Titi Camara-spearheaded Guinea in 1996 – until back-to-back victories over Sao Tome e Principe sent them into the second round of the African preliminaries for the first time."
     
  9. Walia Ibex

    Walia Ibex Red Card

    Arsenal
    Ethiopia
    Oct 2, 2019
    Somalia won a WCQ that was cool, Ethiopia is being disspointing as usual.
     
  10. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  11. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Johns Creek, Georgia
    Nat'l Team:
    India
    #11 Every Four Years, Jan 8, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2020
    So... I was trying to think of good friendly opponents to make the Hex for our poor Canadian friends earlier, and was about to suggest Tunisia (ranked 27 by FIFA) when I remembered that CAF would start their second round in March and decided to look it up lol.

    Seeing as no one else here appears to have posted an update, I thought I’d just fill you guys in.

    As you know, 10 groups of 4, 10 group winners advance to final playoff round for the 5 spots, yards yada. Draw is on January 21, in just under two weeks.

    Probably not overly interesting, this round, on the whole, but worth noting that the Ivory Coast is in Pot 2 for the draw. Losing to Ethiopia in AFCON qualification looks to have screwed them out of a top seed. Unless CIV draws Mali or DRC, we could see one of Africa’s top sides go out early. Definitely the team you want to avoid from that second pot. South Africa is also in Pot 2, but I don’t rate them highly at this point.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_CAF_Second_Round
     
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  12. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And of course Ivory Coast ends up in Cameroon's group with Kenya and Malawi.
     
  13. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Cameroon is eighth in the FIFA Rankings that were used, so Cote d'Ivoire got an easy Pot 1 team by that measure.
     
  14. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    Considering the precarious situation that CIV were in I think they got off pretty well here.

    Not that I put much in the FIFA rankings but there aren't many better draws for them than Cameroon. Maybe DR Congo, even Mali I think I may rather avoid as they are an emerging golden generation.

    CIV certainly lucked out avoiding Nigeria, Algeria, Senegal, Morocco. I think those are the teams they would have really wanted to avoid.

    I think CIV will beat out Cameroon, they have a better squad, but we will see.
     
  15. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    sbahnhof repped this.
  16. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  17. Ofori

    Ofori Member

    Inter Milan
    Ghana
    May 9, 2020
    Being a Ghanaian...seeing our group am I happy about South Africa, Zimbabwe and Ethiopia? Yes I am but at the same time I definitely do not underestimate South Africa that's for sure. Definitely do not underestimate Zimbabwe either. I'm just really, really, really praying my Black Stars qualify
     
  18. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  19. Ofori

    Ofori Member

    Inter Milan
    Ghana
    May 9, 2020
    Really really praying for my Ghana Black Stars to qualify for Qatar 2022
     
  20. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

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