http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2835589.stm (analysis) http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2835685.stm ("rebels boosted") http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2835519.stm (Short keeps job - for now) This is a threat by Clare Short, (International Development minister) who is in the Cabinet of the leading 10 or so members of the Government. There have been rumours all along that she might not be comfortable with Blair's position on Iraq, but this has brought it into the open. If the vote in the UN doesn't go Blair's way this week, he is in deep trouble.
Then he's in deep trouble. There's no way the US and UK will be able to swing 5 more votes in the Security Council.
Re: Re: Cabinet member calls Blair "reckless", re: Iraq We've got 4 in the bag (US, UK, Spain, Bulgaria), 5 almost-certain no votes (France, Germany, Russia, China, Syria). I think we can probably count on Mexico, Pakistan, and Chile, which means we'd need 2 of the African countries (Guinea, Cameroon, and Angola). Guinea is the current SC President, so if we can persuade them, they can probably persuade one of the other 2 African countries. FWIW, I don't know this for certain but I've heard a lot of African countries have close ties with their former colonial rulers, if this is true it is not good for the US since Guinea is former French, Cameroon former French and German, and Angola former Portuguese (who support the war). I think whichever side Guinea votes for will win. Alex
Re: Re: Re: Cabinet member calls Blair "reckless", re: Iraq then i'd say we're fukked. who knows. the french have already changed their mind once on the effectivness of inspections. maybe they'll do it again. it makes me wonder if they're trying to outdo us in "international blunders" in front of the cameras.
Re: Re: Re: Cabinet member calls Blair "reckless", re: Iraq There was a mention in a thread last week about how Cameroon came out against us, but this weekend, I saw on one of the 24 hour news channels that these 6 nations were all "in play." (I remember the thread because some neocon clown came on here with, who cares about Cameroon, unaware they had a temp. seat on the UNSC. Those neocons...so much passion, so little knowledge.)
Re: Re: Re: Re: Cabinet member calls Blair "reckless", re: Iraq That Mexico is still "in play" demonstrates just how much they are annoyed at the US for ignoring immigration reform. Remember, when Vincente Fox was elected, the media in both countries was touting how the existing relationship between Fox and Bush meant closer ties and more cooperation between the two countries. Well, the US has ignored Mexico since 9/11 and now it's coming back to bite them. The US had some good reasons for holding back on immigration reform in the wake of 9/11, but diplomatically, the administration needed to take the time to explain these reasons to Mexico and explain their thoughts on a new timetable for addressing immigration. They didn't do this and now a Mexico is exacting its diplomatic revenge. The Bush admin didn't help things when US diplomat hinted that Mexicans living in the US might find reprisals for a Mexico no vote. links: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/07/opinion/07KRUG.html http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F30C1EFA34580C708CDDAA0894DB404482