CA 50 - Busby wins, faces run-off

Yeah, but it's an emotional victory

 

This is a VERY complicated race.

On 4/11 there was the Special Primary where the top 2 candidates moved on to the Special Runoff. In the Special Primary, about 14 (7 viable) Republicans faced off and there ended up being a pretty nasty fight between Bilbray--a former congressman and moderate--and Roach, a self-financed conservative businessman. Bilbray came out on "top" (finishing 2nd), just barely.

Under normal conditions, the simple question would be do the conservatives show up or not for the Special Runoff. If they show up, and vote Bilbray, he wins, because this is a solid GOP district. If they don't, Busby has a shot.

But his is not a normal situation.

Governor Schwarzenager decided to schedule the Special Runoff for the same day (June 6th) as the General Primary (for the November elections). And since the filing deadline for the November election passed before the Special Primary, that means that almost all of those 14 GOPers will still be on the June ballot. On June 6th, voters in California are going to get two ballots:

One to elect someone to fill out the remainder of Cunningham's term (Bilbray or Busby).

One to nominate someone from their party for the November election.

So, since Roach, Morrow, Kaloogian and others will all appear on the June ballot--and some will still actively campaign--it could be a very confusing day at the ballot box for some. Some Roach supporters might go in and solely vote in the primary, forgetting (or opting not) to vote for Bilbray in the general.

It is possible that Busby could steal this seat in June and then get beat handidly in November. A more likely, yet infinitely more bizzare scenario, is that Bilbray wins the seat in June, but loses his own party's nomination for November--effectively becoming a lameduck the minute he wins the seat.