CA 50 - Busby wins, faces run-off

Discussion in 'Elections' started by TheWakeUpBomb, Apr 13, 2006.

  1. TheWakeUpBomb

    TheWakeUpBomb Member

    Mar 2, 2000
    New York, NY
    Seattle Sounders
  2. Matt in the Hat

    Matt in the Hat Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 21, 2002
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah, but it's an emotional victory :rolleyes:
  3. taylor

    taylor Member+

    Jun 9, 2000
    Fav team: FC CARL ZEISS JENA
    Nat'l Team:
    Staying the hell away from the district. And he has good reason to do so.

    44%? Well we will see if 6.5% can and will defect...
  4. MassachusettsRef

    MassachusettsRef Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 30, 2001
    Washington, DC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is a VERY complicated race.

    On 4/11 there was the Special Primary where the top 2 candidates moved on to the Special Runoff. In the Special Primary, about 14 (7 viable) Republicans faced off and there ended up being a pretty nasty fight between Bilbray--a former congressman and moderate--and Roach, a self-financed conservative businessman. Bilbray came out on "top" (finishing 2nd), just barely.

    Under normal conditions, the simple question would be do the conservatives show up or not for the Special Runoff. If they show up, and vote Bilbray, he wins, because this is a solid GOP district. If they don't, Busby has a shot.

    But his is not a normal situation.

    Governor Schwarzenager decided to schedule the Special Runoff for the same day (June 6th) as the General Primary (for the November elections). And since the filing deadline for the November election passed before the Special Primary, that means that almost all of those 14 GOPers will still be on the June ballot. On June 6th, voters in California are going to get two ballots:

    One to elect someone to fill out the remainder of Cunningham's term (Bilbray or Busby).

    One to nominate someone from their party for the November election.

    So, since Roach, Morrow, Kaloogian and others will all appear on the June ballot--and some will still actively campaign--it could be a very confusing day at the ballot box for some. Some Roach supporters might go in and solely vote in the primary, forgetting (or opting not) to vote for Bilbray in the general.

    It is possible that Busby could steal this seat in June and then get beat handidly in November. A more likely, yet infinitely more bizzare scenario, is that Bilbray wins the seat in June, but loses his own party's nomination for November--effectively becoming a lameduck the minute he wins the seat.
  5. Samarkand

    Samarkand Member+

    May 28, 2001
    Are you sure Teresa LaPore isn't the consultant on this one?
  6. PsychedelicCeltic

    PsychedelicCeltic New Member

    Dec 10, 2003
    San Francisco/London
    And then Busby (or someone else) may win the seat in November, as you'd have to think the moderates supporting Bilbray could be convinced to vote for a Democrat (or just stay home).
  7. Revolt

    Revolt Member+

    Jun 16, 1999
    Davis, CA
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This race just got ugh-ly.


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