I came across this graph recently that shows all of the public opinion polling done on Bush's approval rating. Interesting stuff that shows pretty clearly that war and terrorism are good for Bush's popularity. This does not mean that Bush wanted 9/11 to happen but it has sure as heck saved his bacon and allowed him to pursue his agenda where he was being stopped before. And it leads me to ask the question - who here thinks that Bush is going to be able to sustain his current numbers without another war or terrorist attack? By November 2004 will he be back to be 9/11 levels? http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/MyHTML3.gif
Bush's popularity won't stay above 60% or so without another big crisis to generate the 'rally around the flag' effect. Whether his numbers level off at 59% or 40% will depend on how the economy performs over the next year and how well the Middle East unfolds.
Somebody didn't get the memo, I see. No really, there was an internel memo that was made public. Bush's numbers have only one natural way to go...down. The White House knows this and is working to make the natural numbers look like well, natural numbers. The memo also said that in some polls, Bush could be behind certain individual Dem candidates. These numbers mean little if you consider them as snap shots and not the whole photo album. I use the term "natural" numbers because we have to consider no real un-natural events would change them, like another terror attack. In fact, early on, Bob Dole was leading Clinton in some polls. The key for the GOP is to make these look natural progressions and not allow them to make Bush look too weak. Bush is pushing the economy to show strength and with the four moderate GOPers not so willing to follow the party line are making Bush look weak. I agree with them, Bush needs to cut this act. Richard Gephardt looked good yesterday. But his universal health care plan would make it the 4th largest component of the budget behind defense, social security and medicare, IIRC. It sounds good, but it sounds too huge in such cost cutting times.
That's right. 60% to 80% popularity is simply unstainable over the next 18 months, unless there was some landscape altering exogenous event. And it's the economy that will be THE variable that drives the equation. Iraq and WMD discovery/non-discovery won't...N. Korea or Iran won't...thumbing our nose at the French won't. Moreover, do popularity polls have any DIRECT relationship, 16 months from the electon, TO the electability of any one candidate? I am not a pollster, but my guess is the correlation is about .5.
AS someone who has done alot of polling the biggest indicator of someone's chances in an election this far out with out opposition is what we call "re-elect numbers". This means when asked the question "Will you definitly vote for Bush in 2004" the person asks definitly or probably yes. A "re-elect" below 45% means the incumbent can win but it will be tough. A number below 40% an incumbent is in deep do-do. Anything below 35% basically means game over.