Yes, there is a 3-letter word behind this war..."ass." Chicks dig a soldier and Bush is trying to live up to his predecesors rep as a lady killer.
Despite the fact that Michael Kinsley used to work for Bill Gates, he has absolutely no sense of how markets work. What a complete crock.
Karl, could you please specify what you didn't like? That kind of broadbrush attack is pointless on these boards. Unless it's me calling someone's argument idiotic. In that case, I'm just saving everyone time.
It disagreed with Karl's pre-concluded prejudices. Therefore, it cannot possibly have any truth value whatsoever, you see. Oil is not the only motivation for Bush. He has a couple of other reason as well. For one example, he also wants to distract the American people from the economy and rising unemployment and the fact that his only answer to these problems is "don't tax the rich".
This is such a complicated subject, it would take an 2000 word post to do it justice. But Kinsley's view is SOOOO superficial -- which is why it's so ATTRACTIVE to some minds. Some basic facts. --Right now demand is outstripping supply by about 1.5 million barrels a day. There are lots of reasons for that...the winter, higher natural gas prices in the US, the Venezuela crisis...NOT just the threat of war with Iraq, though that is certainly a contributing factor. Supply/demand is the major driver of market prices, not some greedy little conspiracy in Washington, DC. --Oil inventory levels have fallen sharply since 2002, well before the sabre rattling we've seen. Inventory stocks have an direct effect on prices. --OPEC produces about 40% of the World's Oil. Is Bush starting a war to generate more revenue for OPEC? The conspiracy fans are SURE to believe that. --Oil Prices actually rose in September of last year, to around $30 a barrel before the war was even on the horizon, largely because in early 2002 OPEC decided to cut production. There is often a 6-9 month time lag. --Energy prices have been affected by the tumult in Venezuela, the world's fifth biggest oil exporter. The lack of supply from there has been instrumental in driving up prices. This is just beginning to come back on line. --The Bush administration in January actually ENCOURAGED OPEC to increase production to bring prices down. They listened, and are starting to gear up. --OPEC has gone on record saying that it would "suspend" production quotas should there be a war with Iraq. (Translation: we'll pump out as much as we can to keep the supply going). OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah said they would probably pump at capacity if necessary. In sum, this is a complicated subject, with lots of factors involved in setting MARKET prices. In fact, here's investment idea for you. Go short futures on Oil. Why? Because IF the war goes well, and IF Saddam doesn't torch his fields, prices are going to drop.
Politically speaking, there is probably an optimal oil price that keeps the oil companies satisfied while keeping corporate fuel users and U.S. SUV drivers happy as well. So for the administration it's not just "high oil prices good, low oil prices bad". The issue here is more long-term control of oil reserves than it is "tomorrow's price per barrel". With control over as many oil reserves as possible, it becomes a lot easier to manage that balance between the desires of oil companies and oil users.
"Some basic facts. --Right now demand is outstripping supply by about 1.5 million barrels a day. There are lots of reasons for that...the winter, ..." Wow, that's heavy. Did the oil executives forget that winter happens every year, and forgot to modulate production? Do you work at on oil company? I have a surprise for you! Summer is coming in just over three months.
Bush and company have been planning this war since he got the Republican nomination. READ! http://www.newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf Authors include Paul Wolfowitz and Lewis Libby.
At that point, he was going to ASK congress for a resolution. The price had already gone up, again, largely due to OPEC production cutting. Prices actually FELL in October; the price of crude oil ended the month at around $26 a barrel, whereas in early September, it was hovering around $29.00-$30.00 a barrel. Surely, by October is should have just SKYROCKETED. But it didn't, because so many other factors, complex and sophisticated factors, come into play. But some people on this board would rather live in their little superficial paranoid anit-corporate anti business fantasy-lands of Dick Cheyney and George Bush scheming to start a war to drive up oil prices so guys in West Texas can get richer. Enjoy.
So, I give him some analysis and some commentary since he asks for it ever so politely. And then this. SuperDave should go stick his head in the ground so he doesn't have trouble his addled brain with understanding the subtleties and complexities of real life.
Their reasons for war are also more sophistaced and complex then just oil, but they still arent very good reasons.
Nice bit of revisionist history there. If war isn't on the horizon, why ask Congress for a resolution, hmmm? I notice you're dodging the other questions getting asked around here, too. Please feel free to answer them sometime.
World-wide oil production is expected to peak in the next year to five years based on known reserves, which includes the Caspian Sea region. After that, it's all down hill and the world economy, based on cheap petroleum, goes down the tubes.
OK let me go slow for you. Sometimes the winter is very cold...and sometimes the winter is mild. Follow that? It may be really HARD for you since you assume that oil company executives should probably predict the weather. This thread has now reverted to the truly stupid. Enjoy.
Re: Re: Bush’s ulterior motive If they don't plan for bad weather, then they obviously got their MBAs from the Bush School of Oil Company Management Don't be so hard on yourself Karl.