The idea is based on this thread. What I wanted to do, is compare player wages against performance in a given season for the 2009-2010 season. I haven't been able to find gives me salaries that BuLi clubs pay their players. So I had to use the market value of the clubs. Assumption: Market value of a club would be highly correlated to its ability to pay high wages. I could get the market values of the clubs from here. The site also has an average market value/number of members in the squad. I chose not to use that as a determining parameter as the number greatly varies between 23 and 38 for various clubs. This is what I observed: The R^2 for market value and points this season is 0.81 But it is very evident from the chart that Bayern is an out lier in the pattern. removing Bayern from the data, the R^2 value is 0.75. If you compare it with Sachin's compilation for the EPL the R^2 definitely looks higher there ( I am guessing, he hasn't posted it yet). Inferences: 1) BuLi is a more fair league, where in the financially smaller clubs have a larger chance of relative success. 2) Freiburg and Mainz are two of the best clubs if Market Value/Points ratio is selected. Bayern, Hertha and Wolfsburg are the worst clubs. 3) If market value of a club can be considered as a substitute for wages paid, a salary cap will not have as much of an impact on the BuLi as we expect it to. If someone can get me the wages that clubs pay their players, we can further modify the analysis to directly compare the BuLi to the other European leagues. Your thoughts? PS: I will post the excel working once I get the wage numbers.
^^^^ Made a slight error computing the R^2 values. What is computed is the correlation coefficient. For BuLi 2009-2010,correlation co-efficient = 0.81, R^2 =0.656 For BuLi 2009-2010 without Bayern Munich (the out lier), correlation coefficient = 0.75 , R^2 = 0.5625 The inferences do not change.
This is really neat. It is Bayern, then 7 "European contenders," Hoffenheim, then 9 teams trying to keep up. I would also like to see charts for the last 4-5 years as well so I could see how those individual mini-divisions change with different investments. Maybe even look at a table within the mini-divisions over that period to show how competitive the league is.
That's a good idea.To compare within the mini divisions. Bayern is a clear out lier. But charts for the last 4-5 years would throw up interesting results as Bayern haven't fared that well. They even missed CL football a few seasons ago. Hoffenheim will display a direct correlation with the increase in their market value and their performance. Let me collate the data and attempt this.
What's the point of analysing this in the end? Bayern = $$$$$$$$$$$$ And we already knew that. Next....
No but its not. That is what the chart shows. If anything, Bayern is an out lier among the BuLi clubs. Other than Bayern, the other clubs don't show as high correlation between performance in a season and their market value. Meaning that by pumping in money, it isn't that easy to buy sucess in the BuLi as it is in other leagues. Please keep your thoughts coming. I'll respond and attempt what Mandragola is asking when back.
Geld kompakt made an interesting statistic: How much does a fan need to pay for a home goal of his club. 1. SV Werder Bremen – 430 Euro/34Tore =12,65 Euro/Heimspieltor 2. VFL Wolfsburg -550 Euro/39 Tore = 14,10 Euro 3. Bayer 04 Leverkusen – 540 Euro/37 Tore = 14,49 Euro 4. FC Bayern München – 650 Euro/39Tore = 16,67 Euro 5. Hannover 96 – 500 Euro/27 Tore =18,52 Euro 6. Borussia Mönchengladbach – 515 Euro/25 Tore = 20,60 Euro 7. 1899 Hoffenheim – 570 Euro/26 Tore = 21,92 Euro 8. VfB Stuttgart – 616 Euro/28 Tore = 22,00 Euro 9. FSV Mainz 05 – 600 Euro/22 Tore = 27,27 Euro 10. Borussia Dortmund – 820,50 Euro/29 Tore= 28,29 Euro 11. Hamburger SV – 726 Euro/25 Tore = 29,04 Euro 12. VFL Bochum – 525 Euro/18 Tore = 29,17 Euro 13. Eintracht Frankfurt – 764 Euro/25 Tore= 30,56 Euro 14. FC Schalke 04 – 901 Euro/29 Tore= 31,07 Euro 15. 1.FC „Club“ Nürnberg – 699 Euro/18 Tore = 38,83 Euro 16. 1. FC Köln – 740 Euro/18 Tore = 41,11 Euro 17. SC Freiburg – 660 Euro/14 Tore = 47,14 Euro 18. Hertha BSC Berlin – 599 Euro/10 Tore = 59,90 Euro
What happens when you remove Hertha as well? I bet r square goes up again. This is actually quite a nice way of quantifying underachievers and overachievers. Plot the regression line and measure how much above or below the line a club is. So this year's underachievers are Hertha, Hamburg, Wolfsburg, and overachievers are Schalke and Mainz. And Bayern will come out as a perennial underachiever, even this year. Edit: duh - I just saw that you already wrote that.
Nice statistics there. Thanks for compiling it (if you did). It's always good to see quantifiable evidence that my team underperformed this year.
The BuLi sent 6 teams to Europe this season: Wolfsburg-Underachiever this year Bayern-outlier Stuttgart-Underachiever this year Hertha-Underachiever this year Hamburg-Underachiever this year Bremen-Great Underachiever last year.
Transfermarkt is not a reliable source. The market values there are user generated content. You could as well have people on BigSoccer vote on market value, and it would probably become a better statistic actually (especially in the lower divisions transfermarkt values are ABSOLUTELY ridiculous).
will some1 rep arthur since i'm retarded and neg repped(i think) for sayin i'm right. i'm not even drunk. lol would b appriecated
I am still waiting for the free washing machine they promised me for my last 500 green rep points (that must have been back in 2007, but it never arrived) so am less enthusiastic about rep now anyway. No worries, all colours are welcome! So what do we do about BMike? Anyone knows a good therapist?
Yes you are right. And I apologize for putting it in the wrong section. I am trying to move it to the general Bundesliga part but can't figure out how to Thanks for the input. This is the only source I was able to locate. If you can provide me with a more credible source for the clubs market value/ wages the clubs pay to their members, I'll quickly re-do the chart. It is in the excel format and it wouldn't take much time.
Thats a nice suggestion. Here is the chart with the regression line. Like how Arthur has suggested, the way to read it is to see the distance from the line. The more the distance on the upper side (more points), the more a club has over achieved. And the more a distance from the line on the lower side, the more its underachieved. Ans as you've prediction on the R^2 is right. With all 18 teams, R^2 is 0.657 Without the outliers Bayern and Hertha, the R^2 goes to a whooping 0.683.* (*) The way i have calculated this R^2 is just assumed that the Bundesliga consists of 16 teams and taken the full season points of these 16 teams. However, what I should have done is that I should have deducted the points each team have scored against Bayern and Hertha this season. Without the loss of generalization, most teams would have a poor record against Bayern and a good one against Hertha. And, I'm just come back home from a mini vacation and am too lazy to compute it the right way. All thought are welcome.
The clubs generally do not release how much they pay to the players (and market value will always be hypothetical of course) - sometimes tabloids will report on this, though. Budgets are also fishy. So, I don't know if there are reliable numbers actually.
A question to you, though its a digression from the topic: How can a club not release the wages it pays to a player? Isn't this information useful for the government in computing taxes?? And isn't an ordinary person allowed to access this information? Is there any 'right' to such information?