Brenden Aaronson

In the summer, I was wishcasting a move to PSV. I think it would have been interesting to see him replace Tillman but he’s playing too well to get out of the Premier League these days.

 

How big is Brenden's upgrade this year? Pretty big per the data in https://footystats.org/players/usa/brenden-aaronson

0.25 G/90 84th Percentile
0.19 A/90 88th Percentile
0.44 G+A/90 89th Percentile
0.31 xG/90 84th Percentile
0.21 xA/90 83rd Percentile

Notice that his expected contributions are higher than his actual numbers. That implies that his production is not a streak of luck and is sustainable. FBRef can't show numbers anymore so I can't find if he is still a 90+ percentile presser and runner.

Here's the kicker, these are higher numbers than his rather decent Championship season last year.

Edit: FotMob has less rosy xGA numbers

Expected goals (xG) 0.20
xG on target (xGOT) 0.26
Non-penalty xG 0.20
Expected assists (xA) 0.18

 

I think I read that FBref went out of business

 

That site does NFL football, basketball, and baseball as well. The others are still up.

 

FBRef is still around. But it recently ended its agreement with Opta's parent company that supplied it with advanced data. So the information that's left on there is now much more basic (goals, assists, minutes, etc.) than the xG type data that people used to rely on them for.

Also, I've recently discovered that FBRef's basic data has its fair share of errors, so I don't know how much you'd want to rely on it for that either.

 

Kind of the other way around. Opta pulled their data as they want to charge more for it and find having no public outlets allows them to charge teams and other private users much more.

 

Yeah I guess the wording was unclear, but I just meant the two parties no longer have an agreement, not that FBRef was the one who pulled the plug.

Opta's parent company terminated the relationship, seemingly based on the claim that FBRef was in breach of their agreement.

 

Comparing both Aaronson's and Dempseys 25th age year season in the Premier League.

Aaronson (25/26) - 9 goal contributions (4 goals, 5 assists) in 2,470 minutes.

Dempsey (08/09) - 9 goal contributions (7 goals, 2 assists) in 2,597 minutes. (On a stronger team in table)


Dempsey started to "break out" after the 08/09 season and was a late bloomer. Aaronson has milage on his career, but it will be interesting to see if Aaronson can take it to the next level or is close to his peak.

 

wow. im a big aaronson guy but i never would have guessed he had a counting numbers comp with dempsey (unless it was the spurs season).

 

Perhaps because their profiles are so different: ankle biter vs jaw breaker.

 

That is a good generalization. They both play hard though.

 

In this World Cup, I know it depends on the scoreline, circumstances, etc. But if we sub out Pulisic and want the next closest thing on our roster, wouldn't it be Aaronson? For an attacking wing/forward role?

 

Tillman, Weah, McKennie, Reyna and Wright are also viable options. I was a bit surprised to see the Adams Tillman pairing disrupted considering how well they were doing.

 

I can see that for sure, but I would argue the closest "like for like" of Pulisic is Wright (which is not all that close). Coming into the middle from the left side, attacking the box with both passing AND finishing, that's what Wright did for Coventry. He just lacks the "beating defenders 1v1 with dribbling" that Pulisic brings.

Honestly I'm still not sold on Aaronson. He reminds me so much of Frankie Hejduk - all the energy and spirit you want in a teammate, but none of the ball skills. Or at least none of the finishing.

 

I think a lot of it has to do with Malik Tillman being a beast of a counterpresser and a pretty strong possession player. His best position is probably more forward than we are playing him, so while he's not really Pulisic in style, he's the best player we could probably put there.

Brenden could have brought the counterpressing, but he would not have brought the possession and attack.

And I think Berhalter played really well. Good in distribution and VERY smart in his covering of the defensive elements -- there were 2-3 very good breakups/tackles deep.

There might have also been some element that Tillman had run a ton and that forward position maybe has a bit less movement than his CM role? Fresh legs might mean more there.

 

I, too, was baffled by Poch's decision to effectively make two changes instead of just one.

 

I don’t find it baffling. Your’re up 3-0, so you don’t have to be only focussed on this game. I think Poch expects Berhalter to be important at some point, so once he needed a sub for Puli, letting Berhalter get his feet wet in this game situation made a lot of sense.

 

Probably Aaronson in that scenario for his defensive grinding but Zendejas would be in the mix for me as well.

 

that is one of the most terrifying things I have ever read.

 

How so?

 

the amount of pressing and counterpressing this Poch team does, you'd expect Brendo to a good match for this style and get more playing time.

 

On the left? Zendejas who has a much better scoring record than BA has at the position. Wright also has had quite a few matches on the left. Tillman isn't a goal creator from that position.

 

Aaronson has 2 goals and 0 assists in 13 starts on the left at club. With the National Team, the numbers are a much better 1G3A in 10 starts on the left, though the goal contributions were mostly from the earliest parts of his NT career.