I think we're talking past each other a little. Gutierrez led the Fire in goal-creating actions (the two actions that lead to a goal) last year with 12. 10 of those came from open-play passes, 2 came from drawing fouls (which speaks to that shiftiness you're referring to). But in almost 5,000 minutes of play with Chicago in his career, Gutierrez hasn't created a single goal from taking a player on and straight-up beating him. He doesn't have the dribbling/pace combo to actually get by a defender often enough. In terms of goals added, dribbling is by far his worst category. So yeah, he can create that little extra space and get a clean pass off - when he does that, he's doing well. When he tries to hero ball it and holds on to the ball for a touch or two too long, it's to the team's detriment. That decision-making is what I think he needs to clean up.
In case people stopped paying attention to the U17WC, the final is now set. Its France versus Germany. The two teams that beat the US. Tough draw for the boys, who finished 2nd in their group to France. Lost a really hard-fought game 3-2 to Germany in the round of 16. [By the way, Mexico got demolished 5-0 by Mali in the round of 16.] U17 results can be whacky and not necessarily a predictor of future success. Uzbekistan knocked out England, for instance. The breakout for the US was Nimfasha Berchimas of the Charlotte. We already knew Cruz Medina of San Jose was pretty good, and he was. Overall, I'm not sure how much starpower is in the group, in terms of Pulisic-level talents. But there are a lot of good players there.
I have always said that I believe that HGP players should be cap exempt players for the entirety of a players career. In effect, allowing a pathway for clubs to create super clubs, if it’s through youth development. That said, I think we should extend this eligibility to essentially be the “Danny Leyva rule.” In other words, allow other clubs to also claim this same right over a player if they’re willing to take any u21 player, on loan or transfer, and give them over 1,000 minutes in a single season, or 1,500 minutes total.
The issue is how can we tell who is a "Pulisic-level talent" or not? I always remind people of this story here. When Pulisic was that age (16/17) there was a thread started right here on BS that asked who was our best young talent. In that thread, nearly every poster picked someone other than Pulisic. A couple posters mentioned his name, but only within a group of players that could be the guy, because they couldn't decide. But only TWO posters ... 2 ... said it was Pulisic, full stop. I know, because I was one of those 2. I write that not to praise myself, but to point out how much of a guessing game this is. Despite all of the talk now of how everyone knew how great he was, yadda yadda yadda, the truth was most certainly quite a bit different. People were hopeful, but really had no idea. And we really have no idea now about these guys. Maybe none of them break out. But the certainty that I have seen people show that Pulisic is talented beyond the measure of any of these guys is unfounded, in my opinion.
Pulisic was a special talent. I can't speak to your thread, but I can only speak to what I saw and what I know a bunch of others in the industry saw. That doesn't mean he was can't miss, and that doesn't mean there weren't things about other players that made them prefer them (I imagine Haji's size and athleticism made a lot of people pick him, for example. If anything, i think it was likely less a misevaluation of Pulisic than an overhype of many other players.) And heck, the backlash against Gio after the U17 World Cup was certainly indicative of the risks of scouting. And I do think that we also really struggle to identify players in roles that have far less reliance on ball skills that are generally pretty developed by 15-16. But what you could see with Christian was (a) next level on ball skills and (b) speed and quickness that were likely to translate as an adult. The mental aspect turned out to be something he had that us outside can never really evaluate; there were other guys in the era who didn't always have that. I don't write off anyone, and there's a lot of ways for a player to succeed, but I don't think anyone on this team has Christian's skill set at that age, and only Berchimas probably rivals him in quickness and speed (I don't know the OC player well). Cruz, who is one of the better prospects, is simply not as quick or fast as Christian. Or skilled, really. That's not to doom Cruz in any way and I think I like him much better than most here. But the combo of skill+athleticism that Pulisic had, while not required, is pretty rare for US players. And so even though having that combo isn't the ONLY way to be a top USMNT player by far, the combo is worth highlighting when it comes along. You can go back and see Christian slicing through Brazilians at 14-15 years old. There was something special there. Nothing's can't miss or can't hit, but we can look at attributes and compare.
I'm old enough to remember when we thought having 5 kids signing pro contracts on a U17 was a great haul. Now we expect 5 guys in a U17 team to get USMNT caps, and hope to have an elite talent in there. The U17s are one coach's selection a small sliver of a youth player pool of raw materials. Many of our current USMNTers didn't play at the U17 level (for a myriad of reasons). Sometimes you can tell a kid has the potential to be special. Even to us non-scouts. Berchimas looks like one of those kids. We'll see. U17 and U20 cycles roll thru so quickly that you can't really expect a Christian Pulisic in every one. We've had some loooooooooooooaded U17 teams and some really dumpster fire U17 teams. Unless you're France, that's true of every national team. The 2019 World Cup team: Pepi, Scally, Reyna, Busio, Bello. Five guys with USMNT caps already, and all played important games for us. [Tayvon Gray was just capped by Jamaica.] Just to take note of how little U17 results can mean, that team only got 1 point and finished last in their group. Another data point there is Pulisic's 2015 team. Pulisic, Adams, Zendejas, de la Torre, Wright, Vazquez, Trusty, etc. Last in their group with only 1 point. U17 results can mean nothing. What's important is you're consistently producing talent cycle after cycle. How about the 2017 team? The team in between Pulisic's 2015 team and Reyna's 2019 team. Well, the 2017 team had Weah, Sargent, Dest, Booth, Sands, Reynolds, etc. So cycle after cycle after cycle, these U17s team have some really good players in there. We haven't had a dud cycle in quite some time. The 2013 team that didn't even qualify for the World Cup. These players should have be in their primes RIGHT NOW. Only 3 have caps. They are Corey Baird, Rubio Rubin, and Shaq Moore. That was the last bad U17 cycle we had. If you have a bunch of those in a row, then you're in trouble. You look thru that roster and its names from the past you've forgotten even existed. Junior Flores! Mukwelle Akele, Christopher Lema. They're now 27-28. There's nothing to say there can't be 5 USMNTers from this U17 cycle. And the results with this team were fine. Beat good South Korea and Burkina Faso teams. Lost to Germany and France. Not a crime. [And as we said, half of our starters at the 2022 WC didn't play for us at the U17 level. Either weren't selected like Chris Richards and Weston McKennie. Weren't anywhere in the picture like Matt Turner and Tim Ream. Were dual-nats that hadn't made up their minds like CCV, Musah, Antonee, etc. Might have been picked but had injury problems like Zimmerman. Walker was having real difficulty with Sever's Disease.]
For the most part we have been ok in recognizing the blue chip talents at early ages. I picked Pulisic but I think others picking Haji was reasonable. Likewise, I picked Sargent over Weah and Dest but I'm not exactly beating myself up for not recognizing their talent. I did, I just thought Sargent would have a WC goal by now instead of Weah.
On the other hand......................guys like Wright and Sargent are Championship-level players. Essentially MLS level. No different than a guy like Vazquez (who also played at a U17 World Cup). You look at Brazil or Argentina U17 teams, and they have a lot of players that don't pan out too. Its true of every nation. It's really difficult for us as non-scouts to distinguish between a 15-16 year old with a Premier League trajectory versus an MLS trajectory. On very rare occasions, even us non-scouts can see it. Very rare. Donovan. Pulisic. Weston McKennie has played in the Bundesliga, Premier League, and Serie A. Chris Richards played in the Bundesliga and Premier League. Neither made a U17 WC roster. So if the expert US scouts don't see it; we shouldn't expect ourselves to. Clint Dempsey had zero U17 caps. I saw Dempsey for the Dallas Texans as a teenager and thought nothing of him. Its just that the U17 level is one coach's selection of unpolished players from a small sliver of a player pool. And at that age the gap between the kids that make it and those that don't..............doesn't exist. It really doesn't. There's the one or two special talents, and then a big pool of maybes. The next special talent to come along is probably Cavan Sullivan. The "experts" seem to be in agreement on that. Still a long way to go for him, but BIG clubs are watching.
Some of the hard the hardest things to know is work ethic, character and brains. Many much more talented players lack one or even all of those and if scouts don't know that we sure don't unless maybe personal knowledge jumps in. Dempsey has some iron will to get things done in both career and during games. Maybe younger he didn't stand out but by sheer will he outworked most others, took every slight as a challenge and never was nervous during games.
US U15s beat Portugal 2-1 today in Lisbon. They're playing in the UEFA Development Tournament. Next up are Scotland and Italy. The really notable inclusion on the roster is Manu Romero of Real Madrid. Highly touted son of former Uruguay international Marcelo Romero. Marcelo "played" in the US for one year with the Carolina Railhawks at the end of his career. Didn't play a single league game, but he was busy. Manu was born that year. Roster: GOALKEEPERS (2): James Donaldson (Atlanta United FC; Woodstock, Ga.), Tobias Szewczyk (New York Red Bulls; Morristown, N.J.) DEFENDERS (6): Edward Chadwick (LA Galaxy; Los Angeles, Calif.), Liam Devan (Nashville SC; Nashville, Tenn.), Tyson Espy (LAFC; Dana Point, Calif.), Alex Gomez (New York Red Bulls; Dover, N.J.), Astin Mbaye (New York Red Bulls; Jersey City, N.J.), Manuel Romero (Real Madrid/ESP; Madrid, Spain) MIDFIELDERS (6): Christopher Cook (FC Dallas; Frisco, Texas), Joaquin Cunningham (LA Galaxy; Long Beach, CA), Adri Mehmeti (New York Red Bulls; Staten Island, N.Y.), William Recupero (FC Boston Bolts; Hopkinton, Mass.), Kaedren Spivey (San Jose Earthquakes; San Jose, Calif.), Robert Turdean (Chicago Fire FC; Niles, Ill.) FORWARDS (6): Mathis Albert (LA Galaxy; El Segundo, CA), Mattheo Dimareli (Houston Dynamo FC; Houston, Texas), Omar Hassan (Seattle Sounders FC; Bellevue, Wash.), Paul Sokoloff (New York Red Bulls; Brooklyn, N.Y.), Maximus Steelman (LA Galaxy; Carlsbad, Calif.), Jorge Torres Perez (San Jose Earthquakes; Modesto, Calif.)
If one wants to feel old, there are players on this roster who were born in 2010. We're not too far away from players born in 2010 signing MLS contracts. The youngest player to appear in MLS this season has been Julian Hall of NYRB. He was born in March of 2008. NYRB has the most players on this roster with 5. They were the U15 MLS Next Pro champions this year. [We might see Cavan Sullivan signing a deal with Philly soon. He's a fall 2009 birthday. Probably the best player at the U15 level. He's not on this roster, however. He's actually been playing with the US U16s this month. Youngest player on that U16 roster.]
Add that to Berchimas playing up a cycle and scoring three goals for the U-17s and it looks like the 2008-9 group is going to overtake all previous groups in talent.
Everyone says this ... NOW. Easy to say you (the global you, not the personal you) know something after the fact. But at the time, right here on bigsoccer, no one picked him. And that's my point. If one of those guys breaks out, 7 or 8 years from now every poster on the internet will swear that it was clearly obvious to them that he was a special talent and they told everyone such. There will be no one to challenge it because those conversations will be in the distant past. Monday morning quarterbacking is the greatest pastime of the internet.
After beating Portugal, our U15s then went out and beat Italy. Roster above. USA BEAT ITALY 4-2 IN A COMEBACK WIN! 🤯🇺🇸 @USYNT pic.twitter.com/fkiK0KrYNB— Footy Access (@footy_access) December 2, 2023
NYRB is a real academy on the rise with many participants on the U15/U16 levels. Hall was the youngest player to appear in MLS this season. ASN article: Hall and Rosborough set to be the next RBNY homegrows to breakthrough (americansoccernow.com)
Not sure exactly when the post you reference was and I'm not arguing about the general premise of what you are saying but Pulisic was making some noise at 16, and he 100% was by 17. Some of the posters on here might have been a bit late to the game but BVB knew what they had. Klopp had him training with the first team when he was 16, at 17 he was scoring goals for BVB and the USMNT. Before his 18th birthday it was pretty clear to all but the most jaded Big Soccer poster that he was the top American youth prospect and arguably the best US player regardless of age. For what it is worth, Gio was on an even more aggressive timeline at BVB. We don't seem to have anyone like that at the moment. Doesn't mean that is the only path to becoming a "Pulisic level talent" or better, but it would give us something to hold our hats on. Let's see what happens with Cavan.
They have an excellent 2008 group. They are currently the U-15 champions and are providing a lot of the players killing it in the UEFA tour.
Definitely. Although lagging behind the top few. We had a USMNT camp last cycle in which 1/3rd of the participants spent time at the FCD academy. There just seems to be a real ramping up in the quality/quantity of prospects at the U15/U16s levels at NYRB. That hopefully leads to a big wave coming thru in a few years. In terms of which academies are best, these things are going to ebb and flow from year to year. There will never be a year like 2016 again. That's the year FCD won the MLS Supporter's Shield, U18 DA title, U16 DA title, and went undefeated at the U15 level (won the unofficial title after beating the Efrain Alvarez-led Galaxy at the winter showcase). The amount of future USMNTers in the building at FCD in 2016 was crazy. There was a little bit of a lull at NYRB. Evidenced by the fact that there wasn't a NYRB-trained player on the most recent USMNT roster. I think three players with significant NYRB time have been called up in the past year. Adams, Tolkin, and Miazga (partial credit for Weah). Adams is about to fall off the "called up in the past calendar year" list. I think Dallas has had 11 in the past year.............[Pepi, McKennie, Richards, Ferreira, Pomykal, Reynolds, Tessmann, Gomez, Zendejas, Acosta, Moore]
NYRB faced by a bit of challenge with NYCFC getting the spotlight a few years back. For a while they didn't get the cream of the crop but it looks like they clawed their way back up the pecking order probably because of how they have a proven roadmap to Europe.
MLS homegrown signing announcements are going to start coming thick and fast. '03 USYNT midfielder Nick Pariano just announced by Philly as a homegrown signing. Philadelphia Union Sign Academy Product Nick Pariano | Philadelphia Union Pariano will join the Union on a two-year contract, guaranteed through 2025, with club options for 2026 and 2027. “We’ve watched Nick develop throughout his time with Union Academy and into a productive and successful collegiate athlete, and we are excited to now bring him home to the Union,” said Philadelphia Union Sporting Director, Ernst Tanner. “He is a very versatile midfielder who can play with both feet and has the ability to read the game well. At just 20-years-old, Nick is a promising talent for the pathway to the pros and we look forward to his continued development in our system.”