Let's be clear that when it comes to goals/assists, Cowell's running really hot so far -- he has 5 g+a but should have 1. That's still really good, but he's not MLS Mbappe.
Listened to this last year, super interesting view on how Caden Clark's parents approached his career from the jump. Really interesting, as long as he aint Todd Marinovich style behind the scenes (and it sure doesn't sound like it), it definitely sounds like we're really lucky w/regards to his parentage as compared to say, other parents of young potential stars (looking at you, Hollywood Kid Star parents in particular). https://scuffed.simplecast.com/episodes/episode-149-interview-with-chris-clark-cadens-dad
Cowell has been fantastic... The physical traits pop but he has had two world class assists (3 total assists) in the last two games that demo that he might be a lot more than just a beast. Comparing him to Mbappe is over the top at this point... but so is downplaying his contributions this year. He has 2 goals and 3 assists in 3 games. All well deserved. It is a long season and he is just a pup... but man o man is he fun to watch.
I was talking about the should have 1, I don't follow that. As for Mbappe, I never do comps like that, it's ridiculous. Someone posted a tweet the other day about Javonte Williams being the combo of McCaffrey, Leveon Bell and Saquon in a variety of ways or something like that, and it was just the stupidest comp in the history of life. Those aren't helpful.
expected goals + assists for Cowell are about 1.1 right now (see Football Reference). He's got 5 ... so he's gotten 3.9 more than expected. Super unlikely he keeps that up. Of course, having 1.1 expected goals + assists is still pretty good -- .65 per 90 minutes. But his current goals and assists pace is really out of whack.
Yes. He looks a little Bale. His heading needs to improve even though he can out jump pretty anyone. And he is still filling out his body and avoid overbuild. Glad that he has a good coach on him.
Cowell's contributions have not been flukes in the slightest. Go ahead and use the xG stat when it isn't blindingly obvious that someone is good, but there's no need when everyone can see the talent on the field. Sure, it's not expected of Cowell to win a 40 yard sprint with a defender that's got 5 yards of head start on him, muscle his way into a one-on-one, and finish near post... but he did. And he deserved it. It wasn't a fluke, he had plenty of other attacking positions in this game. Sometimes he took on a low percentage shot, sometimes he got muscled off the ball, sometimes his pass didn't come off. But a few did, which is why he's got such a high ceiling. I literally cannot understand how the xG thinks that his contributions are so unlikely to create goals. This year he has: a cutback curler 10 yards out through traffic, a through ball for a one-on-one, a floated cross to 6 yard box for a free header, a pass to the top of the box for a player with 10 yards of cushion, and a one-on-one finish near post on a charging GK. You can't tell me those are flukes with a straight face.
Another one to keep track of... Patrick Weah Congratulations to Patrick Weah for making his professional debut last night for Minnesota. Nephew of George Weah, cousin of #USMNT attacker Tim Weah and #RBNY right back Kyle Duncan, Patrick Weah only became an American a few weeks ago. Big moment for the 17 year old forward https://t.co/zyXREwVu4r— Brian Sciaretta (@BrianSciaretta) May 2, 2021
I think it is possible for you both to be right. xg is just saying how likely a shot of that type from that location is to be scored by the average player. So maybe other occasions that same shot gets tipped wide, or he puts it a little closer to the keeper. Even if somehow his first goal were instead tipped wide through a great save, or he was a tiny bit less precise with the shot, we should be just as excited about the player based on what gunnerfan7 says. The physical tools, plus the anticipation/vision/reading of the game, would all be apparent. It's just we shouldn't expect the rate of nearly 2 goals plus assists per game to continue even if he continues to play just as well. (By the way, I think that the xg+xa= 1.1 figure did not include last night's game. It is now 1.6.)
Yep. The value Cowell created by outrunning a player and getting that shot on goal isn't in xG. All xG is saying is if a player shoots from that spot, how often does that player score. Most public xG models are pretty blunt in that they don't include space to shoot/defender placement, goalie placement, etc. But even though they don't ... most players regress to their xG. At least at the higher professional levels (including MLS). The bigger part of value is creating that shot. Cowell's xG is probably understated due to the breakaway nature of most of the goal production -- his goal yesterday, his assist in the prior game both probably had lower xG than really because there was not defender in front of them and most public xG models don't reward that. That said, his assist to Chofis ... I mean, that pass is made like 20 times a game and he probably shouldn't get a ton of credit for that goal. And you do wonder if the GK shouldn't have stopped his great goal in the prior game despite his fantastic effort to juke a couple of guys and hit it hard. Either way, players tend to regress to the xG. Perhaps he will outperform, though like Dike, it's unlikely to be doubling or tripling it. But the work done to create the shot isn't always in xG, especially if the work done was to create a wide open shot.
Expected goals/assists are so overrated. It presumes players have the same abilities, even regardless of position. Attackers should exceed expected goals + assists usually. 2 of the 3 assists were really good pickouts and the shots weren't going elsewhere. There's stats & then there's abuse of stats. Patrick Weah is criminally underrated here, just like his cousin was, w/ people forgetting what he'd already contributed at such a young age. Speaking about Patrick, he's a physical difference maker like Cowell already, he appears pretty fearless, and has dynamism. He's also in a great spot in Minny. Their striker situation is wide open for him. There's an outside chance he ends up their starter, and over-under to me is #2 on the deep, ahead of Foster freaking Langsdorf & Agudelo. People weren't looking how poor they were at striker & Patrick's underrated because he wasn't a citizen to be part of our youth teams & took the more traditional route but thankfully bounced early (still only 17). GK isn't sexy, but Ochoa is a star in the making. Yea he's a rascal, but he's so locked into games. He's got the instincts, technique, and good enough physical tools. Just stay healthy and I'm pretty sure the rest will work itself out.
Is there anyone that keeps track of actual goals vs. xg? Seems like that would be a very reveailing stat. There's got to be players that consistently outperform their xg.
Yea, they're called strikers. For example, Lukaku's has out-performed it all 4 years since FBRef were tracking. https://fbref.com/en/players/5eae500a/Romelu-Lukaku When they don't, it's cuz they're in crises of confidence, as goalscorers often go into. But even then it's not some sort of random event.
Almost certainly there are. There's not a lot of history on the stat on FBref -- it has only the last four years, but some players do outperform. Messi has outperformed the last four years. But Ronaldo is basically on par (about +1 goal per year). Lewandowski is having a great year, but two years ago scored -6g versus his xG. I know there's older data out there, so I will try to look for it. ASA has MLS numbers since 2013. The very highest tend to be small small sizes; the largest outperformer that was in the league for 3 years was Kyle Larin, who had 10 of his 43 MLS goals being above his xG, which is pretty big. Dike, as we discussed, had about half his goals be above xG, but that was a very small sample. Nacho Piatti had 6 years of averaging +3 goals versus his xG -- the best 6 year run -- ranging from 0 to 6 goals above xG in that run. Josef Martinez has been at about +2g/year during his run. I'm not one that thinks finishing isn't a skill -- after all, Marco Urena is rightfully at the bottom of the MLS list and that makes a TON of sense. Finishing is absolutely a skill. But there's also a whole lot of small sample size aspect to it, and it's not likely to yield extended runs of double your xG or anything like that. Adding +10-20% seems totally likely for the best players and the best finishers. And maybe Cade Cowell and Daryl Dike are that or will be that. But probably not at double the rate.
For MLS, americansocceranalysis has G-xG. Understat has G and xG separately, but I did notice Son Hueng-min has G-xG of +21.93 for the career. 57.07 xG. 79 goals.
Defenses will eventually adjust to Dike. But his support will also improve in maximizing his talents. I wouldn't expect him to maintain such high G/90-xG/90. But if he goes to a better team he'll likely have more xG to work with.
I remembered way back when those media were hyping up Adu. People would suspect that his age and his body growth. For Cowell, he was already a physical specimen in his 17. We did produce a lot of strong athletes and finally some of them not go to NFL anymore.
I actually loved this assist. The way he recognized the space as he received the ball and pushed into the open area. Maybe it was a mistake or heavy touch, but given how many other positive things he is doing right now where you might ask whether it was a coincidence or did he mean to do it, you have to think it was just more evidence of Cowell reading the game incredibly well.