Brazil vs Germany - Confed. Cup semifinals [R]

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

Germany have shown a vast improvement in the last two years and have found a handfull of young players that work well together. I have to give them credit for attacking soccer as well, wich is nice to see. Brazil does have a weakness in the center of defence and it is a midfeild that HAS to dictate the game, if not they are out of sorts quickly and have no real defensive midfeilder that can keep calm and bring the game back to their pace. Germany preys on this, they now how to play a chippy game as well as how to disrupt the flow of a teams game watch for them to try this against Brazil. Ballack and his play not only on offense but as a midfeild destroyer will be crucial to Germany's success if he is on I can see a very entertaining game of chances on both ends and a possible German win.

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

Have to agree. The Brazilian basic defensive unit (GK, CBs and D-Mids) does not work right now. Besides that, we really miss Roberto Carlos and Cafu.

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

I am more concerned about our finishing. Some of our shots at goal are powder puff.

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

You're seeing that Emerson isn't good enough to cover for Roque Jr and dominate the midfield at the same time. I don't know if he can still do one of the two at an elite level, but so long as Roque Jr. plays, we won't know, since he has to do both.
In general, I've been pretty disappointed with Emerson in this tournament. And Cicinho needs to learn how to actually play some defense. Mexico just kept going at him and was ultimately successful.

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

Yet Roque, the target for all defeats, didn't play in the last game, which saw Marcos pick the ball in the back of the net on three occasions.

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

Three times? Also, Emerson didn't play either.
However, Roque was clearly at fault for both the Mexico goal AND the penalty that Dida finally saved.
I'm also a bit wary of counting the second half of the Japan game as seriously as the Mexico one - Brazil knew they only needed a draw to advance and mostly sleepwalked.

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

Including the first goal which was disallowed, it was indeed three goals suffered against Japan. I'm not sure Emerson would have made the difference that game, but I suspect the "sleepwalking" was more involuntary than voluntary. The last few minutes were harrowing from an advancement to the semi's perspective.

Don't get me wrong nice, Roque did not have anywhere close to a good game against Mexico ...but neither did anyone else. Yet, in the end Brasil lost by one goal. Robinho and Adriano alone missed 4 (two of which where sitters).

As for the goal, a lot has been made that it was Roque's fault alone. If we review the actual goal, we see that the degree of difficulty on Jared Borgetti's (sp) header was high...he actually hit it going against the momentum of his body (he jumped away from goal to reach at the ball). That's not a high percentage shot, and all credit goes to him (his goal against Italy at WC 2002 was a bit similar).

For that play to succeed several things came together.

- Roque lost him in a crowd of people

- Neither Gilberto, who was in front of the Borghetti, nor Kaka, who was on the other side of him made an attempt to jump and contest the headball (Kaka actually moved away as the ball arrived rather than attack the header)

- No one was covering the back post near where the ball entered (you usually find R.Carlos there on corners). Someone should have been there instead; maybe Adriano (who was a meter or two from the post, yet marking absolutely no-one the play)

- Dida did not help his own cause -- high balls in the small area are a keeper's domain. You get the ball or you get fouled. Standing on your line for a ball in the 6 yard box leaves you flat-footed

So, a lot of things came together for that goal.

If we go one step back we see that Cicinho's defending played a role as well. The corner itself came from his inattentiveness. Pardo sent a ball some 40 meters in the air (he hit it diagonally from just inside the Brasilian half on the right, all the way to Pardo screaming down the left flank) which Cicinho totally misjudged, allowing Pardo to get behind him and force Lucio into making a lunging block for the corner. A 40 meter pass in the air....

But its all Roque's fault.

Soon it will be someone else's.

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

Come on tpm, you'll see in my first post I also blamed Cicinho for poor defending.
That being said, goals are rarely the fault of just ONE player. However, Roque also gave away the penalty. He's been awful all tournament. And he wasn't exactly great for Bayer. Why, when Alex is available, does Parreira persist with Roque Jr.? Its as inexplicable as Eriksson and Heskey.
And I disagree that no one played well. Adriano had a goal disallowed by an offside for inches. He at least tried. ZeRo played well too. Kaka played relatively well in the first half I thought. It wasn't a totally awful performance.

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

And if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle.

But seriously, my aztecs got very lucky in this game, and I hope we get to play brasil in the final. I doubt we can beat you twice in such a short period of time, but we can always dream.

Best of luck to you against deutschland.

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

All tournament nice? He played exactly two games, and was very good in the first against Greece. Plus to say he wasn't great for Bayer almost implies that he was poor...he wasn't. Actually, he and Juan have played relatively well together for club IMO.They offered him a contract extension as soon as the season ended; clearly withough being Nesta, neither does Bayer's brass view him as a liability.

Alex played in the Olympics qualifying and was very unconvincing. This is conveinently forgotten by everyone. That said, it should not at all spell the end of his chances, so I don't know what CAP is thinking in not testing him.

Its deeper than that however. IMO, Alex is not the saviour because he will not change the fundamental equation.

Brasil has an offensive philosophy to its game. No NT in the world puts as much pressure on its CBs as Brasil...none. Even with R.Carlos and Cafu in (maybe even more so with them), only 3 players really have pure defensive duties. Even Nesta would be exposed playing for the Selecao (not saying he would be poor, but he wouldn't look as comfortable as he does with the Azzurri, whose defensive approach is very different).They don't go into games expecting to win 1-0, or keep shutouts. They expect to outscore you, within reason (I'm not claiming they want 4-3 games).

This is now exacerbated with the Magical Quartet formation. If they were a team whose philosophy was to win based on shutouts and stingey defense, this formation is not congruent with that goal. If you could guarantee CAP to suffer only one goal per game with this formation, he'd take his chances I suspect.

So my point is when they lose 0-1, no matter if a penalty was saved, it is as much the offense's fault as the defense's....because the formation is centered around scoring. Therefore Adriano missing sitters against Mexico, even without the disallowed goal that would have eased pressure on the defense, was just as much a reason for defeat as Borgetti beating Roque on that header. That's why he (Adriano) should be as singled out as any defensive player (Roque). Personally, I don't believe in doing either.

Its also very telling that during CAP's tenure prior to the new formation - when Selecao played with 3 volantes in the midfield - the results were unspectacular for the most part, but very consistent (the exception being the wild 3-3 Uruguay game). No one was beefing about defense, instead complaining that with all the offensive talent available to the Selecao that the team was not convincing going forward....that it had a hard time breaking down teams playing with 8 men behind the ball....that Gaucho wasn't playing like Gaucho of Barcelona...that Ronaldo was not motivated....that ZeRo should be replaced with Robinho/Adriano/take your pick of offensive minded player...etc.

In the new formation the results to date are wildely inconsistent. One day looking like world beaters, the next looking anemic. For reasons we have previously explored, this formation puts even more pressure on the few who solely defend. When you have forwards not capitalizing, and midfielders making errant passes or losing the ball in the center of the park you expose your defensive players that much more.

Plus, each of the Quartet's tendency is to go towards the middle (even if Gaucho and Robinho start on the flanks, they are not flank players). This forces you to get width from the FBs, or your offense becomes one dimensional. If your FBs are forced to give you offensive width, they aren't defending as much and obligating others to cover for them (you pointed this out with Cicinho). More stress on the remaining defenders.

Life is about trade-offs, and this Quartet formation, with the characteristics of these specific players, is a trade-off that works when the offense scores and allows the defense to play a pure containment game. But when it doesn't, it taxes the CBs further...because they can't make a single mistake.

Alex won't change that.

PS - sorry for any typos or repetition. I'm stealing minutes at work!

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

Maybe she does, and maybe she is, either way it doesn't negate the anatomy of that goal....

Indeed, I tried to state that up front. You picked up on it.

We give credit to the scorer whenever Adriano, Robinho, et al score a goal, and extoll them for their individual virtues; yet almost every single goal against the Selecao we find fault with a defender rather than give credit to the scorer.

It was tough header to put on target given the momentum of his jump. All credit to him.

[The penalty was definitely Roque's fault].

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

I like what you're arguing tp . . . But I have to say that if
Brazil's CBs are so pressured, why the **** does Lucio keep
dribbling way upfield and acting like he's Franz Beckenbauer?
Let him stick to his job if Brazil are vulnerable to counter-
attacks. Just my opinon.

But here's where I agree with you: Nobody is talking about
Germany's defense being awful (which it is), only because
Germany have been winning, while Brazil have dropped 4 pts.
vs. Mexico and Japan.

What it comes to, in my mind, is that Brazil need Ronaldo.
Period. If he were at this CC, he would have put away that
Mexico game like it was a walk in the park . . . and then
nobody would be complaining about Brazil's defense.

I think this game with Germany will be high-scoring and it
will highlight the defensive weaknesses of both these teams.
Having said that, I like your argument that Brazil are playing
in a fundamentally risky style, and need to take their chances.

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

when is this match going to be played?

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

That's showing a lot of confidence in Lucio's offensive ability, which
I don't rate at all.

And anyway do you need him to add to your attack? I'd have thought
that was well provided for by Kaka and co . . .

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

I actually think there is very little 'surprise' in Lucio going
forward. One thing I noticed in the Japan match was how
clogged up the edge of the opposing penalty area had
become with Gaucho, Robinho, Kaka, etc., all trying to
find a break-through. Best for him to stay back IMO. (Hey,
call me Italian .)

The other thing about Lucio is his temper: He seems easily
provoked into dangerous behavior. A CB, especially, needs to
be calm and to transmit calm to others. I would be worried
to have him on my team's defense, but it's just my opinion
& know he gets a lot of respect on the Brazil boards.

 

Re: Brazil vs Germany--Predictions-Confederations Cup 2005-Semifinals

Sempre, Lucio's penchant for going forward is well known. Its something you have to deal with, and am sure it comes as no surprise to his teammates. As long as he picks the right times, I can live with it. With Bayern it comes off as a virtue.

Fundamentally from my point of view, all the Brasilian CBs in the mix for the Selecao are at about the same level, and each brings shortcomings. However, those shortcomings are magnified based on team defensive play (for example we see players like Cris do extremely well with Lyon, but shudder in recollection of his Selecao perfomances).

As for Ronaldo, there have been plenty of WCQ games were he was lambasted for going missing in the whole game, let alone missing a chance here or there. I don't think his absence is the problem (though I do agree with the point Celito has been making recently that he would benefit from Robinho more than Adriano does).