Brazil-Italy Round of 16 prospect???

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by ITALIA1982, Dec 27, 2005.

  1. ITALIA1982

    ITALIA1982 Member

    Jun 14, 2005
    Toronto
    Club:
    AC Milan
    What are the odds of Brazil and Italy facing off in the R16???
    my guess is that there is a 35% chance of happening.
    And what impact would that have on the World Cup???
    Any guess of the outcome??
     
  2. ITALIA1982

    ITALIA1982 Member

    Jun 14, 2005
    Toronto
    Club:
    AC Milan
    For that to happen:
    a. Brazil finishes first (85%) & Italy second (35%)
    or
    b. Italy first (50%) & brazil second (10%)

    That would give us: [0.85*0.35=0.2975 + 0.50*0.10=0.05]=0.3475 which is approx. 35%
     
  3. ChaChaFut

    ChaChaFut Member

    Jun 30, 2005
    Cool. Just curious, how did you come up with those percentages (85 & 35, 50 &10)?
     
  4. Reycd

    Reycd Member

    May 6, 2003
    HONK!! HONK!!
    Club:
    Real Maryland
    Nat'l Team:
    Tahiti
    most likely random numbers..

    I think they will meet, I believe Brasil will finish second in their group with 6 points and Italy in first with 7 points..

    Its potentially a game that could very well determine the winner of the WC..
     
  5. jrod69

    jrod69 Member

    Feb 19, 2005
    NYC
    if Italy makes it past the group stages.... then we can start talking about this
     
  6. Montana_Soccer

    Montana_Soccer New Member

    Oct 23, 2005
    Missoula, MT
    I like it how you give Italy a 50% chance of finishing first in group E, and a 35% of finishing second. 50% against the Czechs and the USA? You kidding?

    Not because I'm bias, but I don't see the Italians even progressing past the group stage. I see the Ghanans beating them to send them home.
     
  7. leonidas

    leonidas Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 25, 2005
    NYC
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    brazil in second is a joke. that won't happen. i cant see them losing to any of the teams in their group. a draw is possible though.

    i dont really like bringing up history, but i'll do it anyways. brazil has never finished second in their group in the modern knock-out format. in fact, they have only not gotten all the points twice. in 94 with a tie to sweden and in 98 with a loss to norway. italy on the other hand, has scrapped through the group phases in 2002 and 94. i think it could happen again for them. their group though is too hard to predict.
     
  8. leonidas

    leonidas Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 25, 2005
    NYC
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    i agree. theres 6 months till the world cup. a lot of things can change.
     
  9. Adidas4Life

    Adidas4Life Member

    May 9, 2005
    The Brazilians, the no. One team in the world, to finish second in thier group and the Italians to finish first in thiers ????

    Ummmmmmmm, I seeee . O.K. Result, ITA loses 3-1 to Brazil.
     
  10. ITALIA1982

    ITALIA1982 Member

    Jun 14, 2005
    Toronto
    Club:
    AC Milan
    I don't understand how you lump USA with the Czechs (see below)
    According to betfair's odds of qualifying from group E:

    1. Italy------------1.3 (85%)
    2. Czech-----------1.5 (75%)

    3. USA-------------2.72
    4. Ghana-----------3.85

    I truely hope this answers your question, this group has 2 overwhelming teams vs 2 out of the picture teams, and Italy will probably win this group, worst case senario is 2nd place with the Czech's on top.
    Team USA will be competing for third.

    As for odds to win the group even more spacing:

    1. Italy--------------1.73 (>50%)
    2. Czech-------------3.25 (30%)

    3. USA---------------8.0
    4. Ghana-------------9.0

    Buddy team USA is way out of the picture according to the bookies.
    And this is where I got my odds.
     
  11. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If I understand these things at all (which I very well might not) the odds are driven by who's betting. Very few Americans bet on soccer, even if it is the World Cup. Which is one reason that 'the USA is way out of the picture.'

    Man, I am so looking foward to these games.

    I'm about ready to add to the folks that are running around posting that the US will win the group. Just to be annoying;)
     
  12. metabelian

    metabelian New Member

    May 14, 2005
    san diego
    Your percentages are off. Assuming that betfair would get an even return on their money (which will inflate the percentages):
    for Italy
    1.3 * x = 1
    x ~ .77
    Czech
    x ~ .67
    US
    x ~ .37
    Ghana
    x ~ .26

    If you add up those numbers, you get 2.07, because betfair expects a net gain on betting, so in reality one or two percent should be knocked off each team. So while Italy is clearly a favorite, betfair's odds have them qualifying about 3/4 of the time.
     
  13. jec1

    jec1 Member

    Sporting Clube de Portugal
    Portugal
    Aug 27, 2004
    Los Angeles ATM
    Club:
    Sporting CP Lisbon
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    percentages are way off
     
  14. OneArmSteve

    OneArmSteve New Member

    Apr 14, 2005
    Atlanta, GA
    Those brilliant oddsmakers universally picked the US as the team with the least likelyhood of making it out of Group D in 2002.

    You can see how "genius" they are by mashing this LINK

    Group A

    Oddsmakers = France & Uruguay
    Actual = Denmark & Senegal

    Group B

    Oddsmakers = Spain & Paraguay
    Actual = Spain & Paraguay

    Group C

    OM = Brazil & Turkey
    Actual = Brazil & Turkey

    Group D

    OM = Portugal & Poland
    Actual = Korea & USA

    Group E

    OM = Germany & Cameroon
    Actual = Germany & Ireland

    Group F

    OM = Argentina & England
    Actual = Sweden & England

    Group G

    OM = Italy & Croatia
    Actual = Mexico & Italy

    Group H

    OM = Russia & Japan
    Actual = Japan & Belgium

    So they picked 8 out of 16? Brilliant indeed...We should take that for gospel no doubt...
     
  15. happii20

    happii20 New Member

    Dec 10, 2005
    Interesting
     
  16. mookhead

    mookhead New Member

    Jul 14, 2005
    Metro Chicago
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    I see Italy coming in 2nd in their group. I would like them to come in second because they always do good when they have to scrap their way out of the group stages(see 1982 and 1994). I see Brazil coming in first in their group. I would love to see Italy v Brazil in the round of 16. I think this is Italy's time to win..I would like to see Italia get some revenge on Brazil.
     
  17. 2-8-0

    2-8-0 Red Card

    Aug 4, 2005
    I think it will happen most definitely. I'll be surprised if it have not.
     
  18. Not going to happen, Brazil wont make it out of thier group
     
  19. surreyman76

    surreyman76 Red Card

    Jan 5, 2006
    Brazil will definitely make it out of their group. Only a fool would think otherwise!
     
  20. Are you calling me a fool :eek:
     
  21. Prenn

    Prenn Member

    Apr 14, 2000
    Northern Ireland
    Club:
    Bolton Wanderers FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Ignore him, he'll be gone soon.
     
  22. jec1

    jec1 Member

    Sporting Clube de Portugal
    Portugal
    Aug 27, 2004
    Los Angeles ATM
    Club:
    Sporting CP Lisbon
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    i think brazil will stumble
     
  23. Montana_Soccer

    Montana_Soccer New Member

    Oct 23, 2005
    Missoula, MT
    How?
     
  24. leonidas

    leonidas Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 25, 2005
    NYC
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    yeah. how? honestly, this is the best brazil team i've ever seen. i would agree with your "stumbling" prediction if this was 94, 98, or 02, but I just can't see it this time around.
     
  25. simonb_nyc

    simonb_nyc New Member

    Jun 7, 2005
    New York
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Brazil will definitely make it out of their group. Italy won't. Most likely the US or Ghana will beat Italy. But this is one of the most difficult groups because Ghana can beat Italy, the US and the Czechs. I don't see Italy advancing.
     

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