What are the odds of Brazil and Italy facing off in the R16??? my guess is that there is a 35% chance of happening. And what impact would that have on the World Cup??? Any guess of the outcome??
For that to happen: a. Brazil finishes first (85%) & Italy second (35%) or b. Italy first (50%) & brazil second (10%) That would give us: [0.85*0.35=0.2975 + 0.50*0.10=0.05]=0.3475 which is approx. 35%
most likely random numbers.. I think they will meet, I believe Brasil will finish second in their group with 6 points and Italy in first with 7 points.. Its potentially a game that could very well determine the winner of the WC..
I like it how you give Italy a 50% chance of finishing first in group E, and a 35% of finishing second. 50% against the Czechs and the USA? You kidding? Not because I'm bias, but I don't see the Italians even progressing past the group stage. I see the Ghanans beating them to send them home.
brazil in second is a joke. that won't happen. i cant see them losing to any of the teams in their group. a draw is possible though. i dont really like bringing up history, but i'll do it anyways. brazil has never finished second in their group in the modern knock-out format. in fact, they have only not gotten all the points twice. in 94 with a tie to sweden and in 98 with a loss to norway. italy on the other hand, has scrapped through the group phases in 2002 and 94. i think it could happen again for them. their group though is too hard to predict.
The Brazilians, the no. One team in the world, to finish second in thier group and the Italians to finish first in thiers ???? Ummmmmmmm, I seeee . O.K. Result, ITA loses 3-1 to Brazil.
I don't understand how you lump USA with the Czechs (see below) According to betfair's odds of qualifying from group E: 1. Italy------------1.3 (85%) 2. Czech-----------1.5 (75%) 3. USA-------------2.72 4. Ghana-----------3.85 I truely hope this answers your question, this group has 2 overwhelming teams vs 2 out of the picture teams, and Italy will probably win this group, worst case senario is 2nd place with the Czech's on top. Team USA will be competing for third. As for odds to win the group even more spacing: 1. Italy--------------1.73 (>50%) 2. Czech-------------3.25 (30%) 3. USA---------------8.0 4. Ghana-------------9.0 Buddy team USA is way out of the picture according to the bookies. And this is where I got my odds.
If I understand these things at all (which I very well might not) the odds are driven by who's betting. Very few Americans bet on soccer, even if it is the World Cup. Which is one reason that 'the USA is way out of the picture.' Man, I am so looking foward to these games. I'm about ready to add to the folks that are running around posting that the US will win the group. Just to be annoying
Your percentages are off. Assuming that betfair would get an even return on their money (which will inflate the percentages): for Italy 1.3 * x = 1 x ~ .77 Czech x ~ .67 US x ~ .37 Ghana x ~ .26 If you add up those numbers, you get 2.07, because betfair expects a net gain on betting, so in reality one or two percent should be knocked off each team. So while Italy is clearly a favorite, betfair's odds have them qualifying about 3/4 of the time.
Those brilliant oddsmakers universally picked the US as the team with the least likelyhood of making it out of Group D in 2002. You can see how "genius" they are by mashing this LINK Group A Oddsmakers = France & Uruguay Actual = Denmark & Senegal Group B Oddsmakers = Spain & Paraguay Actual = Spain & Paraguay Group C OM = Brazil & Turkey Actual = Brazil & Turkey Group D OM = Portugal & Poland Actual = Korea & USA Group E OM = Germany & Cameroon Actual = Germany & Ireland Group F OM = Argentina & England Actual = Sweden & England Group G OM = Italy & Croatia Actual = Mexico & Italy Group H OM = Russia & Japan Actual = Japan & Belgium So they picked 8 out of 16? Brilliant indeed...We should take that for gospel no doubt...
I see Italy coming in 2nd in their group. I would like them to come in second because they always do good when they have to scrap their way out of the group stages(see 1982 and 1994). I see Brazil coming in first in their group. I would love to see Italy v Brazil in the round of 16. I think this is Italy's time to win..I would like to see Italia get some revenge on Brazil.
yeah. how? honestly, this is the best brazil team i've ever seen. i would agree with your "stumbling" prediction if this was 94, 98, or 02, but I just can't see it this time around.
Brazil will definitely make it out of their group. Italy won't. Most likely the US or Ghana will beat Italy. But this is one of the most difficult groups because Ghana can beat Italy, the US and the Czechs. I don't see Italy advancing.