Discussion in 'Elections' started by Rostam, May 27, 2009.
Oh noes da jews!
Dude- you're a one-trick pony.
Wow. U.S. could only dream of such a turnout.
Here are a few neat little graphs of the counted votes:
(For those who can't read farsi, the three are two candidate's votes on the different axis).
Khamenei just sided with AN announcing the elections were a miracle with higher turn out electing the president etc. etc.
Almost 80 % turnout this time - nevertheless, the race got clearly & early decided by Ahmadinejad. Very interesting...
Especially the fact that AN obviously won 57 % of the votes in Mousavi's home town, must be an absolute joke.
Btw: According to "Spiegel", all universities of Tehran will get closed for the next 2 days and the exams postponed. Hmmm, what could be the reason for that...?
As someone who lives in Chicago, Il. and is very familiar with voting fraud committed by candidates, I have to say that the obvious level of fraud committed here is quite shocking and makes some elections here look pretty damn fair!
I commend Iran for the high turnout of for the vote. I hope that Mousavi and the other candidates continue to fight against these results.
!Bob that Khamenei siding with AN here validates the puppet masters remarks I have made over the past few years here. It seems that the guy they wanted to win has been setup to be the winner despite what the people wanted.
Now I wonder what will happen next?
This is highway robbery!
The problem is that they obviously get threatened by AN's thugs from the "Revolutionary Guards". Do you think that Mousavi's supporters will dare starting an open uprising as i.e. many Romanians did against Ceausescu's powerful "Securitate" in 1989 or the Iranians against the Shah's infamous Savak?
The official results as announced half an hour ago and confirmed by Supreme Leader were something as follows: Ahmadinejad with 24+ million votes or 62%; Mousavi with 13+ million votes; with Rezaie 3rd and Karrubi 4th with a small fraction of the vote. Voter turnout was announced at 85% or 39 million votes.
The results were surprising, not because Ahmadinejad won. But because the high turnout was generally assumed to favor the anti-Ahmadinejad crowd, while the margin of victory for Ahmadinejad was much higher than what I or most others could have projected. Whether the explanation is voter fraud or something else remains to be seen. Unlike many here, however, I start with the premise that there is no fraud unless proven otherwise.
On that premise, it appears to me that the ebb and flow in voter participation in Iran has much more to do with the excitement level in a race and the publicity surrounding it than on whether more critical elements and those following dissident groups are boycotting or participating in the elections. The latter appear to hold no more than 5-6 million votes in total, of which a sizable percentage voted for Mousavi. This interpretation, ironically, is supported by the poll taken by Terror Free Tomorrow before the election, which projected 82% turnout even though the poll was before the debates that generated even more publicity and excitement around the race and boosted the turnout for the Mousavi camp. In that poll, among committed voters, Ahmadinejad had a commanding lead over his closest rival, Mousavi, with 34% saying they would vote for him and only 14% for Mousavi. 27% were undecided still, while very negligible numbers said they would vote for Rezaie and Karrubi. The rest, roughly 18%, said they would not vote.
If you extrapolate those poll numbers, you would have expected Ahmadinejad to start with 15.7 million committed voters (34% of 46.2 million eligible voters). Mousavi to have started with merely 6.5 million committed voters (14% of 46.2 million eligible voters). With 12.5 million undecided (27%) and roughly 8.5 million indicating they won't vote (18%). The rest, a small fraction, indicated they would vote for Rezaie or Karrubi. So how does that compare to the election results? The actual results show that roughly 1.5 million of those who planned not to vote went ahead and voted. With half a million blank ballots and lets assume those came mostly from this group with the remaining 1 million going almost exclusively to Mousavi. That would bring his number to 7.5 million. Since he actually got more than 13 million votes, that means another 5.5 million of the undecided eventually chose him over Ahmadinejad. In other words, 44% of the undecided voted for him, with the rest (some 7 million) from the undecided camp choosing Ahmadinejad. And that would give him around the 24 million votes he actually received, with the minor differences between the poll and the actual results showing some voters did change their minds by the debates and what transpired between the poll and election time.
Tens of thousands of people have taken to the street, and are marching with Mousavi towards the Interior ministry.
To be honest, that really surprises me ... since I thought that Ayatollah Khamenei was a lot smarter (how I mentioned before, he actually can't afford the fool Ahmadinejad any longer). But well, obviously he & the ultra-conservatives in Iran must have some good reasons to fear Mousavi.
If the election result turns out be be rigged (of course, AN will do everything to prevent the opposition from getting any evidence), the situation could become very uncomfortable for the Mullahs...
Have a nice day.
The march is on. Here is a clip, from an hour ago:
Let's hope that all those people won't have to fear a second "Tiananmen".
Tehran: Vanak Square, two hours ago:
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYClJh6KYDI"]YouTube - Mir Hossein Mousavi [/ame]
How far do you think things will go?
13+ million voted for Mousavi and another roughly 2 million did not vote for Ahmadinejad. That is 15 million voters. And around 7 million did not vote at all. That is 22 million who did not vote for Ahmadinejad out of 46.2 million adults (eligible voters). Of course, Iranians do not think alike about Ahmadinejad and many oppose him. And of course they can bring out a crowd. But what does that prove and what it accomplish? Nothing except to strengthen those who would prefer to clamp down on freedoms in Iran.
We had a very open, and hotly contested, election. Every night, we had scores of supporters from these candidates in the streets. We had vigorous debates and many speeches. The people went and voted. If there is any evidence of fraud, let that evidence be presented. But going to the streets merely makes sure that our next election will not be as open or as free.
IM, stop being an apologist for cheats, thieves and liars.
It is 1953 again, Mousavi is our Mossadegh.
Mousavi supporters chasing away the riot police and the Revolutionary Guards chanting "Down with the dictator!":
How dare they protest! They should just sit at home while AN and his crew steal the election!
I see you didn't mention fair, since a fair election might not give the results you're looking for.
As for evidence, give me a break. The people with the "evidence" and "facts" are the ones in the interior ministry backing AN. I'm sure you don't see a problem with that. When they come out with their fudged numbers I'm sure you'll be back with a "see, I told you so" post. I can't believe how easily you'll drink the kool-aid as long as it backs your personal preference, while telling everyone else they're falling for conspiracy theories.
Actually, never mind, I can believe it.
Greater than 80% turnout from what I've seen from multiple sources, and yet AN wins by a 2:1 margin. Right.
Indeed... perhaps you need to consider that the election results are a Big Lie. In a society that closes down newspapers where are the checks and balances in the system to verify anything said by those in power?
So, are you saying that people motivated enough to attend huge rallies like this don't bother to vote? That crowd is clearly for Mousavi.
Please post that picture, I'd like to get a straight comparison.
That's like claiming that McCain won all Chicago counties in the last presidential election.
IM, your posts are very reasonable and offer a good view when opposing a side (up until now), this however, is below you.
People going to the streets doesnt do much? holding the government accountable is part of democracy! How can you claim open elections and speak of freedom in Iran when you oppose issues like this?
Like I said, the other candidates should stand up, and Moussavi is no Khatami, he has serious backing and has a much more impressive resume (Khomeini) than anyone around. He can and should stand up.
1- There was a poll taken by "Terror Free Tomorrow" which fits what happened in this election.
2- Here is a pictures from Ahmadinejad's visit to Isfahan a couple of weeks before the election, in the same place:
Going to the streets can sometimes lead to making a society more open and more democratic. And sometimes it can lead a society to become more closed and less democratic. I believe the latter is more likely than the former in this case and this juncture. Especially since those will be demonstrating can be viewed as a disgruntled minority who can't accept an election defeat.
Rather ironic, since that's how the same crowd that brought about the 1979 revolution could have been viewed at the time.