With the '03 slate set to kick off Saturday at Crew Stadium, I though I would share some ideas on how to maximize profits and minimize risk on MLS betting: Last season I placed a thoretical $10 bet on every MLS game not played during the WC. I did this using the best odds for my money on any website posted on this forum. (Intertops being the only one of them I have found '03 odds on so far this season) I have no documentation other than the posters on this board who saw my predictions week in and week out. I did keep records and here is how things came out: Overall: +$339 Overall Reg Season: 57-54 +$259 Overall Playoffs: 13-6 +$80 "Prime 3 Games": +$278.30 When betting on MET: +6 CHI: +27.5 SJ: +16.5 LA: +34.15 COL: +49.85 KC: -55 dc: +21 NE: +85 CLB: +79 DAL +75 Lessons learned: *Have accounts at multiple sites to take advantage of differing odds. If you don't have the money to do this then review your ability to bet in the first place. *Always consider expenses of trasferring money (both to and from casinos). You have to pay them, they are real. *Don't ever "double-up" to cover previous losses. *Don't bet if you don't have a strong feeling backed by facts. Leave it alone, there will be another game next week. You wouldn't buy every stock, so why bet every game? *Search for and throttle odds that are out of whack. Don't bet games that have no advantage to them. *Go for the upset is the odds are worth it: You'll go broke playing favorites between ties and upsets. In parity-driven MLS many teams at 3.0 or above are worth a risk if you can find more than one reason to take it. One called upset at 4.0 is worth 6 favorites at 1.5. *Never bet on a team your heart is close to, it's harder to see dispassionately: I took a bath on KC for most of the season. Every week it seemed KC ran up and down the field on everyone only to miss badly and give up weak goals. Two things here: 1)Keep records so you can more easily recognize paterns, successes and errors. I quit betting KC games with real money late in the season 2)Be willing to change your betting habits - get rid of ones that don't work. *Consider ties carefully: MLS in '02 was 26.4% reg. This means just to break even on ties, you need be exceedingly lucky OR an average of 3.59:1 odds. Most sportsbooks don't count OT goals in their decisions; it's in their best interest to ignore them so there are more ties. Find one that does include OT GW's if you can. (post here if you find one) In absence of that, give more consideration to ties. DAL, KC, & COL all have 12 ties in 2 seasons. That stat does not even count games with OT deciding goals! *Two hot goalkeepers produce more ties - just something I have noticed over time. *All game results and stats are listed on mlsnet.com. Do some research and consider the time an investment: For example, CLB has had a hard time in dc. LA likewise in CLB. KC has never earned a point in CHI. LA is gold at home so the odds are skewed. They will be more skewed this season. dc/KC is often 3-2 or 0-0, etc. *Young or short defenses leak goals *Teams with heavy personel change struggle early. I hope this helps
Well, I barely finished in the black with MLS last year (not counting a certain little post-season odds-makers' screw up, which put me comfortably in the black), so I'm not going to dispute what you've said. And I'd emphasize these points... *Search for and throttle odds that are out of whack. Don't bet games that have no advantage to them. *Go for the upset is the odds are worth it: You'll go broke playing favorites between ties and upsets. In parity-driven MLS many teams at 3.0 or above are worth a risk if you can find more than one reason to take it. One called upset at 4.0 is worth 6 favorites at 1.5. The parity thing makes MLS harder to bet than other leagues that I know less about.