I just read the article linked below and started to wonder what the best and worse case scenarios are for a possible war with Iraq. I doubt that Iraq is bluffing in its threats against Israel, but we saw how futile their SCUDs were 11 years ago. I've heard plenty of reasons for and against an invasion of Iraq, so I'm not so interested in hearing those in this thread, but I would like to know what some of you imagine the best/worse case scenarios are. Clearly, a lot of variables are unknown at this point but idle speculation is a lot of fun so...what will al-Qaeda do next? Just how close is Iraq to obtaining nukes? Will a war with Iraq inspire Islamic militants in say, Egypt and Saudia Arabia, to attempt a coup? Have we made a deal with Russia that if they let us do our thing in Iraq we'll turn a blind eye when they take care of separatists in Georgia? Etc. http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/p...ontrassID=1&subContrassID=0&sbSubContrassID=0
Best Case Scenario: Saddam allows weapon inspectors back in. Worst Case Scenario: US attacks Iraq. Iraq turns around and launches chemical and biological weapons at Israel killing thousands. Israel attacks Iraq. Other Middle Eastern nations, under pressure from internal pressure, turn around and attack Israel for attacking Iraq. Then it is a mess that will take the rest of the century to straighten out. Murf
Well, the general rule throughout history is war is good for your economy, I'd say the opposite will be true in an Iraqi war. Recognizing that a regime change in Iraq will mean the US getting cheap oil the rest of the Middle East is likely to jack up their prices severely hurting the US economy. Just something that crossed my mind, I know that most of worldwide oil production, pricing, etc is controlled by OPEC. OPEC is obviously a mainly Middle Eastern cartel, but I know that Venezuela and one or two other countries are members. Without knowing exactly how OPEC works or who controls it, I wonder if it would be able, or care, to stop Arab countries from raising their prices.
> Well, the general rule throughout history is war is > good for your economy, I'd say the opposite will > be true in an Iraqi war. War is good when you capture other nations resources and wealth. War is doubly bad when you lose, because the war itself it expensive, and you lose your wealth to the enemy. If it is done right, war with Iraq may be very good. > Just something that crossed my mind, I know > that most of worldwide oil production, pricing, > etc is controlled by OPEC. OPEC is obviously a > mainly Middle Eastern cartel, but I know that > Venezuela and one or two other countries are > members. Without knowing exactly how OPEC > works or who controls it, I wonder if it would be > able, or care, to stop Arab countries from raising > their prices. The thing is, OPEC is mostly useless for a couple of reasons. First, the nations do no trust each other. If they agreed to cut down production, the nation that keeps pumping full out will get more money for their oil while the others suffer. Second, only Saudi Arabia really has any power to change how much oil they pump. For the last few decades, every other nation pumps all-out no matter what. In fact, a current OPEC member, Indonesia, is starting to import oil because they are running out and their population is booming. As long as we stay friends with Saudi Arabia and/or continue the military occupation, OPEC won't be too powerful. Not that that will stop Bush the Younger from wanting to crush it anyway.