BEST FORMAT for 2026 WORLD CUP: 40 countries + 8 countries (no need to worry about collusion)

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by vevo5, Feb 17, 2021.

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Which format do you want to see for FIFA 2026 World Cup with 48 teams?

  1. FIFA current proposal: 16 groups of 3

    40.0%
  2. 40 countries + 8 countries (no need to worry about tiebreaker/match fixing/collusion)

    60.0%
  1. vevo5

    vevo5 Member

    Nov 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #26 vevo5, Feb 19, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2021
    Another option:

    A tournament in November 2025 among the 8 countries to decide the two countries that advance to the knockout round of 32.

    November 2025: mini World Cup tournament among the 8 countries
    June/July 2026: main World Cup with 40 countries (10 groups of 4 with double elimination format)

    The 2 winners of the 8 countries + the 30 winners of the 40 countries = 32 knockout round

    So when June 2026 comes the focus of the WORLD CUP would be among these 40 countries...to see which ones can make it out of their group through double elimination format (aka one win to advance, lost both games go home)

    Each game will be very exciting and meaningful. Advantages: no match fixing. No imbalance schedule. Every game is meaningful (there are a few World Cup Group Stage games that were meaningless regarding who win / lose since they have already been eliminated).


    The meat of the tournament will be in the knockout round of 32. But the double elimination group stage (10 groups of 4) is also very exciting.




    That hypothetical mini playoff tournament will replace this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup

    Playoff tournament

    A playoff tournament involving six teams will be held to decide the last two FIFA World Cup berths,[20] consisting of one team per confederation (except for UEFA) and one additional team from the confederation of the host countries (i.e. CONCACAF).

    Two of the teams will be seeded based on the FIFA World Rankings, and the seeded teams will play for a FIFA World Cup berth against the winners of the first two knockout games involving the four unseeded teams.

    The tournament is to be played in one or more of the host countries and to be used as a test event for the FIFA World Cup. The existing playoff window of November 2025 has been suggested as a tentative date for the 2026 edition.
     
  2. vevo5

    vevo5 Member

    Nov 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #27 vevo5, Feb 19, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2021
    A hypothetical World Cup with 48 countries using 2018 World Cup Qualifying results


    4.5 to 8 slots
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(AFC)

    Iran
    South Korea
    Syria
    Uzbekistan --------------goes into the 8 countries stage

    Japan
    Saudi Arabia
    Australia
    UAE --------------goes into the 8 countries stage


    4.5 slots to 7 slots

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification#CONMEBOL

    1 Brazil
    2 Uruguay
    3 Argentina
    4 Colombia
    5 Peru
    6 Chile
    7 Paraguay --------------goes into the 8 countries stage




    3.5 spots to 7 spots including host
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_CONCACAF_Fifth_Round

    Canada (host)
    USA (host)
    Mexico (host)

    Costa Rica
    Panama

    Honduras ----------------------8 countries stage
    Trinidad and Tobago -------8 countries stage




    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_OFC_Third_Round

    New Zealand -------------8 countries stage


    5 slots to 9 slots
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_CAF_Third_Round


    Tunisia
    Nigeria
    Morocco
    Senegal
    Egypt

    DR Congo
    Burkina Faso

    Uganda -------------to the 8 countries stage
    Ivory Coast --------to the 8 countries stage



    13 slots to 16 slots
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification#UEFA

    France
    Portugal
    Germany
    Serbia
    Poland
    England
    Spain
    Belgium
    Iceland

    Switzerland
    Italy
    Denmark
    Croatia
    Sweden
    North Ireland
    Greece
     
  3. vevo5

    vevo5 Member

    Nov 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #28 vevo5, Feb 19, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2021
    The 8 countries with worst qualifying results will have a mini World Cup in November 2025 to decide the two countries advancing the World Cup knockout round of 32. It could look like this:

    Group A:

    Uzbekistan
    Trinidad and Tobago
    Ivory Coast
    New Zealand

    Group B:

    UAE
    Honduras
    Uganda
    Paraguay


    There are a few ways to decide 2 teams that enter the World Cup Knockout Round of 32


    1) Group Stage (3 games each for each country). Group Winner advance

    2) Group Stage (3 games each for each country) Group Winner and Group Runner up advance to playoff.

    Winner (Group A) vs runner up (Group B)
    Winner (Group B) vs runner up (Group A)


    3) Playoff (8 countries to 4 countries to 2 countries)

    Uzbekistan
    UAE
    Honduras
    Trinidad and Tobago
    Uganda
    Ivory Coast
    Paraguay
    New Zealand

    The bad thing about this playoff is that 4 countries will be eliminated after 1 game. Which is not ideal. So I prefer either Option 1 or Option 2.
     
  4. vevo5

    vevo5 Member

    Nov 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #29 vevo5, Feb 19, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2021
    MAIN WORLD CUP (40 countries) 10 groups of 4 (double elimination)

    France
    Portugal
    Germany
    Serbia
    Poland
    England
    Spain
    Belgium
    Iceland
    Switzerland
    Italy
    Denmark
    Croatia
    Sweden
    North Ireland
    Greece



    Brazil
    Uruguay
    Argentina
    Colombia
    Peru
    Chile


    Tunisia
    Nigeria
    Morocco
    Senegal
    Egypt
    DR Congo
    Burkina Faso

    Canada (host)
    USA (host)
    Mexico (host)
    Costa Rica
    Panama

    Iran
    South Korea
    Syria
    Japan
    Saudi Arabia
    Australia
     
  5. vevo5

    vevo5 Member

    Nov 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #30 vevo5, Feb 19, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2021
    SEEDINGS for 2018 World Cup
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup#Draw


    SEEDINGS for 2026 World Cup using current ranking (40 countries stage double elimination stage)
    https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/

    Pot 1 (strongest + hosts)

    Canada (host) ---------- should Canada get pot 1 seeding?
    USA (host) --------(#22 in ranking)
    Mexico (host) --(#9 in ranking)
    Belgium (1)
    France (2)
    Brazil (3)
    England (4)
    Portugal (5)
    Spain (6)
    Argentina (7)

    Pot 2 (next strongest)

    Uruguay (8)
    Italy (10)
    Croatia (11)
    Denmark (12)
    Germany (13)
    Columbia (15)
    Switzerland (16)
    Chile (17)
    Poland (19)
    Senegal (20)




    Pot 3:

    Sweden (21)
    Peru (25)
    Tunisia (26)
    Japan (27)
    Iran (29)
    Serbia (30)
    Morocco (33)
    Nigeria (36)
    South Korea (38)
    Australia (41)



    Pot 4:

    North Ireland (45)
    Iceland (46)
    Egypt (49)
    Costa Rica (50)
    Greece (53)
    Burkina Faso (58)
    DR Congo (60)
    Saudi Arabia (67)
    Syria (76)
    Panama (78)
     
  6. vevo5

    vevo5 Member

    Nov 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #31 vevo5, Feb 19, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2021
    USING a random 1-10 number generator to create some groups
    https://numbergenerator.org/randomnumbergenerator/1-10

    Pot 1 vs Pot 4
    Pot 2 vs Pot 3

    Group A: (got number 8,6,9,4)

    Portugal
    Columbia
    South Korea
    Costa Rica


    Match 1: Portugal vs Costa Rica
    Match 2: Columbia vs South Korea
    Match 3: loser of match 1 vs loser of match 2




    Group B: (got number 9, 2, 5, 7)

    Spain
    Italy
    Iran
    DR Congo

    Match 1: Spain vs DR Congo
    Match 2: Italy vs Iran
    Match 3: loser of match 1 vs loser of match 2


    Group C: (got number 9, invalid, got 4 ok, got 2 invalid, got 1, got 10, got 7 invalid, got 2)

    Belgium
    Uruguay
    Australia
    Iceland

    Match 1: Belgium vs Iceland
    Match 2: Uruguay vs Australia
    Match 3: loser of match 1 vs loser of match 2


    Group D:

    Argentina
    Germany
    Peru
    Saudi Arabia

    Argentina vs Saudi Arabia
    Germany vs Peru
    loser vs loser

    Group E:

    Canada
    Denmark
    Serbia
    Egypt

    Canada vs Egypt
    Denmark vs Serbia
    loser vs loser


    Group F:

    Brazil
    Poland
    South Korea
    Greece

    Brazil vs Greece
    Poland vs South Korea
    loser match 1 vs loser match 2


    anyone want to fill out the rest of the groups using random number generator?
     
  7. vevo5

    vevo5 Member

    Nov 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    here's a crazy thought:

    extra match between winner of match 1 and winner of group 2
    The winner gets special SEEDING and the right to choose their next opponent in the round of 32.


    Group B:

    Spain
    Italy
    Iran
    DR Congo

    Match 1: Spain vs DR Congo ---Spain won and advance
    Match 2: Italy vs Iran ------Italy won and advance
    Match 3: loser DR Congo vs loser Iran ----the winner advance
    Match 4: Spain vs Italy -----winner get special SEEDING and to choose its opponent

    Let's say Spain won. In the knockout round of 32, it gets to choose its opponent.

    All 10 winners get to decide their opponents. Order by FIFA ranking.

    So if Belgium (1) won their group, they get to pick first.
    France (2) if won their group, get to pick second etc...

    It would be exciting. Instead of a random draw, the 10 winners get to pick.

    The other 12 countries not pick will get to be a 2 pot lottery draw. Italy (who lost) and not picked by the 10 winners, would be part of these 12 countries. Get a much tougher draw.

    This give EXTRA INCENTIVE to be the group winner. Group winner gets easier opponent in the round of 32.

    Spanish coach went to the podium: We, Spain, pick South Korea as our opponent in the knockout round of 32.

     
  8. vevo5

    vevo5 Member

    Nov 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #33 vevo5, Feb 19, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2021
    Group D:

    Argentina
    Germany
    Peru
    Saudi Arabia

    Match 1: Argentina vs Saudi Arabia
    Match 2: Germany vs Peru
    Match 3: Saudi Arabia (loser) vs Peru (loser)
    Match 4: Argentina (winner) vs. Germany (winner)

    Winner gets to choose their opponent in the round of 32. Easier opponent.

    Loser will get into a tough draw (12 teams not picked).


    similar with Group C. Belgium and Uruguay would definitely want to win their group in order to get an easier opponent (get to pick) in the 32 knockout round


    Group C:

    Belgium
    Uruguay
    Australia
    Iceland




    These extra 10 matches would be great for TV viewing. FIFA would love it.

    And the schedule allow it to happen since the other 2 losers in their groups are playing on Match 3. Match 4 could take place on the same day.


    Match 1 (June 10): Argentina vs Saudi Arabia
    Match 2 (June 10): Germany vs Peru
    Match 3 (June 16): Saudi Arabia (loser) vs Peru (loser)
    Match 4 (June 16): Argentina (winner) vs. Germany (winner)

    Knockout round of 32: June 22

    if match 4 doesn't happen, then Argentina and Germany would get a very long rest compare to Saudi Arabia and Peru who play on June 16

    If I am running FIFA I would definitely make sure that match #4 exist. The 10 winners choosing their (weaker) opponents would also make for great drama.

    Imagine Spain picking South Korea and Spain lost.....





    Strong teams that could be in that draw of 12 could be the likes of Italy, Germany, Uruguay, Columbia etc...
    They didn't win the group but they didn't get pick by the 10 winners.



    10 winners get to pick.
    Each country get 10 minutes to make a decision.
    100 minutes of pure drama.

    FIFA would televise it of course. Much better exciting than the World Cup Group Stage Draw.

    So Belgium goes first. France second.
     
  9. Holiday_Jenkins

    Barcelona
    United States
    Jun 10, 2020
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You'd play 6 group matches per day through the first two matches for each team. For the last group match you'd play 8 matches per day.
     
    Every Four Years repped this.
  10. vevo5

    vevo5 Member

    Nov 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #35 vevo5, Mar 3, 2021 at 5:34 PM
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2021 at 5:42 PM
    from this reddit topic that has a lot of comments:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/5mwf3a/oc_why_the_proposed_3team_group_stage_for_the/

    Why the proposed 3-team group stage for the World Cup is a terrible idea

    How a biscotto is possible in the proposed 3-team groups
    FIFA is suggesting that all matches will have a winner and a loser. I'm going to assume that we keep 3 points for a win (although it really makes no difference if draws aren't possible: the result will be the same whether a win is worth 1 point or 100 points).

    Detailed example
    Matchday 1: A beats B 1-0

    Matchday 2: C beats A 2-0

    We then have the following table before the final game:

    Team P W D L GD Pts
    C 1 1 0 0 +2 3
    A 2 1 0 1 -1 3
    B 1 1 0 0 -1 0
    In the final game, B plays C. C agrees (implicitly or explicitly) to allow B to win 1-0, resulting in the following final table:

    Team P W D L GD Pts
    C (Progressed) 2 1 0 1 +1 3
    B (Progressed) 2 1 0 1 0 3
    A (Eliminated) 2 1 0 1 -1 3
    As we can see, C and B have taken advantage of playing the last game to ensure that they both progress at the expense of A.

    How likely is this to happen?
    A moment's thought should demonstrate that the example above could have happened equally with C and B reversed. In fact, a biscotto happens whenever team A finishes with one win, one loss, and a zero or negative goal difference. Just for fun, I'll illustrate that with a set of results where every game is decided by a penalty shootout (also demonstrating the inanity of FIFA's claim that penalty shootouts will eliminate the biscotto):

    Matchday 1: A draws with B 0-0 (A wins on penalties)

    Matchday 2: C draws with A 0-0 (C wins on penalties)

    Matchday 3: B draws with C 1-1 (B wins on penalties)

    Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts
    B (Progressed) 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 3
    C (Progressed) 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 3
    A (Eliminated) 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 3
    A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that, if all teams are of equal quality, we should expect to see this situation somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2 of the time. In reality, where teams are not of equal quality, it is somewhat less likely than this (team A could be much better or worse than the others, and thus finish with two wins or two losses), but nevertheless remains a clear possibility.






    from a comment that has a lot of likes:

    The Penalty thing is a terrible idea too. We may have a lot of teams that just park the bus for 90 minutes and still gain the 3 points on Penalties. Everything in that system is just so bad, I don't know who get that idea and why.
     
  11. vevo5

    vevo5 Member

    Nov 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #36 vevo5, Mar 3, 2021 at 7:11 PM
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2021 at 7:38 PM
    Using 2018 World Cup qualifying (hence the Netherlands not in it) with current FIFA ranking. Using random number generator to generate these groups:


    Match 1: Seed #1 vs Seed #4: Winner advance
    Match 2: Seed #2 vs Seed #3: Winner advance
    Match 3: Loser match 1 vs Loser match 2: Winner advance



    Group A:

    Portugal
    Columbia
    South Korea
    Costa Rica

    Example;
    Match 1: Portugal vs Costa Rica: winner advance
    Match 2: Columbia vs South Korea: winner advance
    Match 3: loser of match 1 vs loser of match 2: winner advance


    Group B:

    Spain
    Italy
    Iran
    DR Congo



    Group C:

    Belgium
    Uruguay
    Australia
    Iceland


    Group D:

    Argentina
    Germany
    Peru
    Saudi Arabia


    Group E:

    Canada
    Denmark
    Serbia
    Egypt



    Group F:

    Brazil
    Poland
    Japan
    Greece


    Group G:

    Mexico
    Switzerland
    Nigeria
    Burkina Faso



    Group H:

    England
    Senegal
    Morocco
    North Ireland



    Group I:

    USA
    Croatia
    Tunisia
    Syria



    Group J:

    France
    Chile
    Sweden
    Panama





    For the two special groups. Each country plays 3 games. Group winner advance. (very weak group but only winner advance)

    Special Group 1:

    Uzbekistan
    Trinidad and Tobago
    Ivory Coast
    New Zealand

    Special Group 2:

    UAE
    Honduras
    Uganda
    Paraguay



    32 countries will advance to the round of 32 knockout. 30 from group A to J and 2 from the two special groups.

    current 32 teams World Cup: 64 matches
    FIFA 2026 with 16 groups of 3: 80 matches
    40 countries + 8 countries World Cup: 74 matches



    Disadvantages of this format: the 8 countries (with worst qualifying results) do not have the same hurdle as the other 40 countries.

    Advantages: balanced schedule, no matching fixing / collusion (the 16 groups of 3 will most likely have match fixing / collusion and 100% certainty of unbalanced schedule)
     
  12. vevo5

    vevo5 Member

    Nov 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Where do I get these 48 countries? Why Netherlands not in it?

    Using 2018 World Cup Qualifying results


    4.5 to 8 slots
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(AFC)

    Iran
    South Korea
    Syria
    Uzbekistan --------------goes into the 8 countries stage

    Japan
    Saudi Arabia
    Australia
    UAE --------------goes into the 8 countries stage


    4.5 slots to 7 slots

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification#CONMEBOL

    1 Brazil
    2 Uruguay
    3 Argentina
    4 Colombia
    5 Peru
    6 Chile
    7 Paraguay --------------goes into the 8 countries stage




    3.5 spots to 7 spots including host
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_CONCACAF_Fifth_Round

    Canada (host)
    USA (host)
    Mexico (host)

    Costa Rica
    Panama

    Honduras ----------------------8 countries stage
    Trinidad and Tobago -------8 countries stage




    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_OFC_Third_Round

    New Zealand -------------8 countries stage


    5 slots to 9 slots
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_CAF_Third_Round


    Tunisia
    Nigeria
    Morocco
    Senegal
    Egypt

    DR Congo
    Burkina Faso

    Uganda -------------to the 8 countries stage
    Ivory Coast --------to the 8 countries stage



    13 slots to 16 slots
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification#UEFA

    France
    Portugal
    Germany
    Serbia
    Poland
    England
    Spain
    Belgium
    Iceland

    Switzerland
    Italy
    Denmark
    Croatia
    Sweden
    North Ireland
    Greece
     
  13. vevo5

    vevo5 Member

    Nov 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    SEEDINGS for 2026 World Cup using current ranking (40 countries stage double elimination stage)
    https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/

    Pot 1 (strongest + hosts)

    Canada (host) ---------- should Canada get pot 1 seeding?
    USA (host) --------(#22 in ranking)
    Mexico (host) --(#9 in ranking)
    Belgium (1)
    France (2)
    Brazil (3)
    England (4)
    Portugal (5)
    Spain (6)
    Argentina (7)

    Pot 2 (next strongest)

    Uruguay (8)
    Italy (10)
    Croatia (11)
    Denmark (12)
    Germany (13)
    Columbia (15)
    Switzerland (16)
    Chile (17)
    Poland (19)
    Senegal (20)




    Pot 3:

    Sweden (21)
    Peru (25)
    Tunisia (26)
    Japan (27)
    Iran (29)
    Serbia (30)
    Morocco (33)
    Nigeria (36)
    South Korea (38)
    Australia (41)



    Pot 4:

    North Ireland (45)
    Iceland (46)
    Egypt (49)
    Costa Rica (50)
    Greece (53)
    Burkina Faso (58)
    DR Congo (60)
    Saudi Arabia (67)
    Syria (76)
    Panama (78)
     
  14. vevo5

    vevo5 Member

    Nov 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    DISADVANTAGES of the proposed 16 groups of 3

    - unbalanced schedules
    - match fixing / collusion

    https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa200414

    Using groups of three may look harmless, but it actually raises several fairness issues. The first obvious issue is schedule imbalance. Let us denote by A the team that will play the first two group games, B the team that will play the first and last group matches, and C the remaining team, which will play the last two group games (see Table 1). Team B will enjoy more rest days between their two group matches than Teams A and C; Team A, if they advance to the knockout round, will enjoy more rest days than the other advancing team; Team C will have none of these benefits.

    A more serious issue is the subject of this article: the risk of match fixing (or collusion). As soon as Match 2 is finished (see Table 1), Teams B and C will know what results of Match 3 will let them advance to the knockout stage. Those teams may be tempted to collude when a result lets both of them advance, at the expense of Team A. Suspicion of collusion can badly harm the tournament and the reputation of soccer in general, whether the match is actually fixed or not, since outcome uncertainty is at the very root of sport’s popularity. Not all teams would collude if given the opportunity, but even suspicion of coordination could damage the World Cup by casting doubt on the sincerity of the outcome. When collusion does occur, it need not be explicitly agreed upon before the match. It may simply take the form of two teams satisfied with the current score more or less late in a game and refusing or doing little to attack each other.

    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]


    from this reddit topic that has a lot of comments:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/5mwf3a/oc_why_the_proposed_3team_group_stage_for_the/

    Why the proposed 3-team group stage for the World Cup is a terrible idea

    How a biscotto is possible in the proposed 3-team groups
    FIFA is suggesting that all matches will have a winner and a loser. I'm going to assume that we keep 3 points for a win (although it really makes no difference if draws aren't possible: the result will be the same whether a win is worth 1 point or 100 points).

    Detailed example
    Matchday 1: A beats B 1-0

    Matchday 2: C beats A 2-0

    We then have the following table before the final game:

    Team P W D L GD Pts
    C 1 1 0 0 +2 3
    A 2 1 0 1 -1 3
    B 1 1 0 0 -1 0
    In the final game, B plays C. C agrees (implicitly or explicitly) to allow B to win 1-0, resulting in the following final table:

    Team P W D L GD Pts
    C (Progressed) 2 1 0 1 +1 3
    B (Progressed) 2 1 0 1 0 3
    A (Eliminated) 2 1 0 1 -1 3
    As we can see, C and B have taken advantage of playing the last game to ensure that they both progress at the expense of A.

    How likely is this to happen?
    A moment's thought should demonstrate that the example above could have happened equally with C and B reversed. In fact, a biscotto happens whenever team A finishes with one win, one loss, and a zero or negative goal difference. Just for fun, I'll illustrate that with a set of results where every game is decided by a penalty shootout (also demonstrating the inanity of FIFA's claim that penalty shootouts will eliminate the biscotto):

    Matchday 1: A draws with B 0-0 (A wins on penalties)

    Matchday 2: C draws with A 0-0 (C wins on penalties)

    Matchday 3: B draws with C 1-1 (B wins on penalties)

    Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts
    B (Progressed) 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 3
    C (Progressed) 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 3
    A (Eliminated) 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 3
    A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that, if all teams are of equal quality, we should expect to see this situation somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2 of the time. In reality, where teams are not of equal quality, it is somewhat less likely than this (team A could be much better or worse than the others, and thus finish with two wins or two losses), but nevertheless remains a clear possibility.






    from a comment that has a lot of likes:

    The Penalty thing is a terrible idea too. We may have a lot of teams that just park the bus for 90 minutes and still gain the 3 points on Penalties. Everything in that system is just so bad, I don't know who get that idea and why.
     

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