Yes, assuming health, I would have that 4-2-3-1 against anybody. Everyone will go crazy because we like to keep expectations so manageable for Egg, but our top starting 11 is better than Mexico's at this point. And the difference is only going to grow. I think our best 11 beats theirs 6-7 times out of 10. If Adams or McKennie are injured or unavailable, then maybe I reconsider and put another player in midfield (I still wouldn't add another CB, though).
We can agree to strongly disagree. Our starting best XI is comparable with Mexico's Best XI and they have far better depth. We need to be smart in how we deploy against them and trying to attack Mexico plays right into how they would love us to play. They have a lot of strength in offense as well. Our biggest relative weakness vs. good teams is our defense and you want to address it by saying that the best defense is a good offense. I strongly disagree.
It looks like Dest, Reyna and Morris are viewed as "OK = Good enough for CONCACAF". which players outside of the USMNT are equal to or better than those three? How many CONCACAF CBs are better than "WEAK" Brooks? How many CONCACAF CMs are better than "WEAK" un-recovered/fragile Adams who is still able to play for RBL?
Well, you have 6 of 11 players as good enough for CONCACAF, which puts us in the middle tier, I'd assume, by definition. But of those 6, only one is clearly above average? Or does Hope count there? Whereas as 3 players are simply "BAD" and the other two "WEAK". That doesn't feel top half of CONCACAF. Players like Ream, Long, Sargent, Altidore, Miazga, Yeuill and probably even Guzan are all OK for CONCACAF. I understand not placing any of them in GOOD. You've taken a lack of depth and a recent terrible injury history and projected forward an absurd amount. Teams like Panama have made the World Cup with essentially an MLS team at best; we should be fine there.
By that same rating system, I'm guessing only Mexico has over half of their players considered good enough, which means the scale is faulty if only the top team is even considered good enough for the competition. Globally our player pool is weak, but that's simply not true within CONCACAF since CONCACAF is a weak region.
Outside of Mexico, every Concacaf coach wishes he had a team of MLS stars. Canada has their super teens and a bunch of MLS guys Costa Rica- one of the best goaltenders on Earth and a bunch of MLS guys Honduras- Houston Dynamo and guys who want to be on the Dynamo Panama- MLS guys are their stars
but apparently those MLS guys are better than guys who have earn starting spots in UCL knockout rounds.....
Well, notably "start a UCL KO match" is very different from "UCL KO starter" and different again from "UCL KO achiever".
When I say "good enough for CONCACAF" I mean "good enough to qualify directly out of CONCACAF" = finish above Honduras, Panama, Jamaica, Canada. I don't consider Ream, Long, Sargent, Altidore, Miazga, Yeuill and Guzan good enough for that at this point.
My starting XI would be fairly conventional, but I don't know who the 11th player would be: --------------Sargent-------------- -----Pulisic---????---Morris----- -------Adams---McKennie------- Dest---Brooks---Long---Cannon ---------------Steffen--------------- 1. Sargent has improved, but I'm not going to be too aggrieved if either Altidore or Zardes start over him. With Altidore fighting for 100% fitness so often, however, I'm reluctant to actually list him as the starter in any Best XI. 2. Pulisic's position depends on the left back chosen by Berhalter. I think Chelsea has clearly shown where Pulisic should play, so the U.S. shouldn't force him into the #10 role unless it has no other choice. However, if Berhalter chooses to start a pedestrian fullback, then I would shift Pulisic to the center. IIRC, this was one of the things that went wrong against Canada in Nations League (Pulisic was stranded on the left). 3. Morris clearly proved in 2019 that he is a starter for this team. Let him do his thing on the right. 4. You can't make a starting US midfield right now without McKennie or Adams. Morales can fight the MLS depth for the backup roles. 5. I'm fine with Dest at left back while bringing Antonee Robinson into the team. Cannon can take right back while Yedlin decides his international future. 6. I'm not sure about that ???? spot. Reyna or Pomykal might take it in the next 3-4 months, but I'd be fine with somebody like Lletget as a placeholder. 7. Formation matters. For example, it's getting difficult to see a place in the squad for Tim Ream. However, if the U.S. starts running out a 3-5-2 or 3-4-3, then I might vault him all the way into the starting XI. The real question is - if MLS is unable to resume full league play because of conditions in the United States, at what point does that start damaging the national team prospects of our MLS players? In theory, the US national team could schedule a match in September, but it would likely have to be in Europe with European-based players only. Berhalter and the coaching staff would have to travel 2 weeks early to quarantine.
It depends what happens by early September. We're already back to 5,000+ dead per day, but Western Europe (outside the UK) is doing fairly well in that, but they also have been the ones to impose the tightest quarantines, closures, and restrictions. The USA is keeping at around 1,000 dead/day, and Russia is climbing to around 200. So now that Western Europe is slowly opening up, we'll see what happens. If by late August/early September they hit 1,000+ again, well, we probably have to forget about international soccer until a vaccine is out (good luck with that!) or the virus has mutated into a milder cold, or everybody has already been infected and that gives people some sort of permanent resistance to it (yeah... like that has ever happened with coronaviruses...).
Just to stick a pin in this: we both agree that our CBs are rather pedestrian defensively. I think we also agree that our outside backs are not great defenders either. I think that having a stout defense is imperative and that pursuing attractive possession soccer is what has led us to a precipitous decline in ELO ranking (and doesn't look attractive at all). Therefore, I want to augment the central defense by adding a third, admittedly not a difference maker, CB to structurally enhance our defense. On the other hand, you simply want to roll out a pair of "meh" CB defenders and attack the opponent instead of buttressing an admittedly (I think) shaky backline.
I like that lineup. By international standards, I think of Pulisic as considerably better than “ok,“ and McKennie, Dest, Adams, Brooks, and Morris as better than “weak.” I also am hopeful that Sargent and Reyna will turn out to be at least ok on that metric.
Good post in general, but I'm just wondering how you're not at least somewhat confident that Reyna should be in your ??? spot? He checks all the boxes - plays that position, is young and already preforming at a very high level, etc. I don't want him to automatically slotted in there - I think he should see some competition from from Lletget, Holmes and maybe Pomykal in camp, but given what we know he looks to be the clear choice going forward. Unless Pulisic plays as the #10 and we want Reyna on the wing. As for you #7 point, I'm not completely sure that I don't want Ream at LB and Dest at RB. I rate Ream a bit higher than most posters on BS. He's been decent for the national team over the years, and is an lock starter for Fulham who's currently fighting for promotion to the Premier league. I like the backline you posted, I just feel that Ream might still have a place in the 11. The ??? spot for me is our #9. I want to believe Jozy still has it in himself to be our starter, but I'm also aware that might not be the case. Sargent has not impressed me that much, but I am interested to see how he looks going forward. Zardes is an option if Jozy is hurt and Sargent is out of form. There's also the possibility of playing Morris as the #9, and someone like Holmes or Pomykal on the RW. And hell, maybe one of the younger guys will go on a goal scoring rampage in MLS and make a case for himself. One can hope.
why move a difference maker from his position in order to play a non-core player? If anyone should move, it should be Cannon or Yedlin not Dest. Pomykal potentially instead of Reyna is just mind boggling
I like Reyna and think his ceiling is extremely high, but I think people are falling in love with what he does well and that he’s playing for BVB. If we are talking about RIGHT NOW, then what I see when he plays is a player who doesn’t look like he knows what he’s supposed to be doing when he’s not directly involved with the play. He will run to a spot, and when he doesn’t get the ball, he just stays there. Even when a teammate dribbles right at him. He’s been good in possession, he obviously makes goals happen and would torch CONCACAF, but if GGG really believes in his system, I just don’t see Reyna being the lock starter a lot of people seem to think he is. I see his lack of movement off the ball as a problem right now.
Don't overthink this. Reyna is playing significant minutes and starting games for a top 10 team in the world. Only Pulisic has ever been at that level in US soccer history. It's cute to argue if he passes the eye test or if he's established, but let's please trust dortmund management over bigsoccer geniuses or egg.
So, you're arguing that we, and USSF, should limit our scouting to what team and league a player is in. Got it. Good plan. ETA: Indiana Vassilev for starting number 9 for USMNT.
In fairness, he didn't say that. He set a bar of accomplishment that can't be ignored. He didn't argue that a player at West Ham should start over one from Leeds, he/she just said there is a level that can't be ignored. Dortmund is over that level. I think Gregg thinks so too as no player at that level has not become a starter.