Good Ebening. It was a good win today against a disciplined and well-organized Brentford team, but with real concern around the potential injury to Mosquera, and Unai Delenda Est. Unfortunately, the games are coming thick and fast and we've got a mere two days and change until the next game at Villa Park, and Unai Delenda Est. Villa are a weird team. They sit in third, having scored 20 and allowed 14, but their xG numbers are nearly the inverse: their xGD is -5.0 and their underlying data suggests they should be around 14th or so. I said earlier that Brentford might be the best team in the league when the scores are level. Well, Villa are among the worst at 0-0, with an xG/90 of .67 and an xGA/90 of 1.7. Despite that, their goal differential in tie games is positive (Jackie Chan wtf gif here). Regression to the mean has gotten Unai fired from more than one job, let's do our part to increase that count by one more. Unai Delenda Est. Location: Villa Park Time: 1230 GMT/0730 EST/0630 CST TV: USA?
Yup, it’s on USA Network. Ungodly early KO. But certainly appointment viewing! Now for 2 days we sweat it out about the new injuries to Mosquera & Rice. The former concerns me in its ripple effect of over-taxing Timber & White… simultaneously. Unless of course Saliba is somehow miraculously fit? And the latter since we seem to have relatively poorer quality in depth in MF. Maybe this is the chance for Norgaard to prove his worth and gain Mikel’s trust? Or more likely he just leans on Merino more by shifting him back to L8.
We have had a tough time against them. Any wins are hard fought, and this game has a draw written all over it. This might be a weekend where City wins and we draw. We play first so a win would put pressure on City who host Sunderland. That will not be an easy game by any means. Its a tough December for us and this might probably be the toughest league game for us for the month. (Home to Wolves, Away to Everton, home to Brighton, home to Villa). Do we start Gyokeres or Merino? I'd like to see Gyokeres start but my guess is Merino starts, Gyokeres gets subbed in with the thinking of easing him back into the side. Plus, Merino is scoring.
Villa's gonna be exhausted too. Our depth is better than their depth. Just get the damn 3 points, no excuses.
Villa is the most in form side in the PL. I think like 7 of their last 8 games maybe. The toughest game for me of December in the league. A draw won't be the end of the world. But we'll need a herculean effort and we MUST score first. They do and its a draw if we can usually do what we do and raise our attacking level. Both sides should be tired but then again, I thought Chelsea would be tired as well. Merino or Gyokeres up front? Rice or Merino in the midfield? The back line is very worrying. Likely White, Timber, Hincapia, Calafiori Timber is very athletic and in a strange way, will be good in terms of the buildup. I can see him driving forward at times.
Rice said he's ok and ready but would prefer he starts on the bench. Hoping big willy can start or come in at like half. Our midfield and forwards are gonna have to be much better than they were yesterday.or we will lose this game.
Since Saliba didn't even make the bench yesterday, I'm not banking on him starting. Maybe he could come on in 2T to give White/Timber some time off, but I think even that might be a bit optimistic. And I agree with you, that regardless of Rice declaring himself fit, if it's anything related to a calf strain, then I do NOT want to see him play. In which case, I see Merino dropping back to MF and Victor starting. Saka & Marti will almost certainly start on the wings. And hopefully Ode is able to as well, or if not then Eze is a very good backup.
Just an FYI, and perhaps I'm overthinking it, but when I hear an athlete leaving a game with a calf situation, I'm always alarmed. For those who do not partake in American sports, that's what I've heard NBA players say prior to tearing their achilles. IMO Rice should not play on Saturday, I understand it's vital he plays but man that calf injury, to then turn around and run another 90 mins. I don't like it. I hope I am completely wrong. That's also the same calf situation that Klay Thompson and KD had prior to blowing out their achilles. You can look it up.
If Rice is out for an extended part of the season, our title hopes are substantially reduced, if not lost outright. For this match, even if Rice is 100% fit, this isn't an easy or certain 3 points. Hopefully Arteta is willing to potentially lose this battle by sacrificing Rice to win the "war" over the course of the season and having him readily available. I'm in agreement that Rice should be rested as much as possible for this one. Perhaps Arteta moves Merino back into midfield for him, and Gyorkeres starts as forward. Or maybe Norgaard gets a rare start and Merino maintains his place up top. Part of me thinks that MLS could see minutes in Midfield for this one, but we are so thin in defense, that Arteta may not want to risk putting a "defender" in a more advanced role. None of these options are ideal, but I'd prefer we don't start Rice and see what our bench can do to cover, then have Arteta make subs to adjust during the match
Add Haliburton, Lillard and Tatum. Arteta will play Rice if Rice is healthy enough to play because he only likes to say that he has a big squad; he won't use it. Zubi need a rest too. But Arteta treats Norgaard like he's an academy player instead of as a veteran Premier League player. I'm not sure what he needs to do to get any real minutes.
Rice needed a rest yesterday or before. But because MF is where we seem to have the thinnest quality of depth (i.e. Norgaard virtually never plays?!) and because of what a critical player/leader Declan is, Mikel just keeps playing him over and over and over. If it were up to me, I'd rest him at Villa even if he pleads to play. And take our chances with Merino or Norgaard in MF. That said, I did a quick search of his history of calf injuries and apparently the only one was something minor in that vague area of the leg 2 years ago which kept him out for a few weeks. So at least it doesn't seem to be a recurring/reinjury situation?
Rice reads the field better than anyone. He sniffs out danger like a hound dog. With weaker sides we don't need it and can cope with Merino or Eze partnering Zubi and Odegaard. Its the tough games where he's needed. Games like Chelsea, Bayern Munich, City, Liverpool, etc. Aston Villa has a very intelligent midfield. Hoping we can rest him but not sure. If he does play, he shouldn't play till the next weekend or against any weak side. He's going to be most valuable starting in February and definitely in March till May. The business end of the season. Where we are likely going to be pushing for a CL semi or final. Hoping we will have the PL sewn up by that time. Sewn up meaning at least 7 points clear of City. The only team I think that can come closest to matching us week in, week out for the rest of the season. The 106 million we paid or however much it was is looking more and more like a bargain.
Yep yep, good stuff you guys, these are all valid points regarding the midfield. I would def play Noorgaard, would you start Odegaard? Rice being so pivotal means that as was pointed out he'll rest when he's dead lol smh. Gotta keep fingers crossed, I want to stack these wins while the rivals fumble.
This is possibly the toughest league game we have this month. We gotta go for a win. I think we have an opportunity to put a bit of distance 2 or 3 points ahead of City. We have the early game, win it and it forces City to beat Sunderland. Which is becoming a tough feat. (ask Liverpool). A draw is not out of the realm of possiblity. After this game, big changes for Brugge, big guns on the bench, break open in case of emergency. 13th Home against Wolves next week. Don't start Rice, don't start Saka, Odegaard and Eze split time, ease Odegaard in. Gyokeres and Merino split time, ease Gyokeres in. Sub in Nwaneri, MLS when the game is fully in control. 20th away to Everton, Moyes seems to either have our number or lose big. He will tell them to get stuck in. It's how teams are instructed when playing us. Play our best side till we are up by 2 goals. Then sub in people. 23rd League Cup home vs Palace. Won't be easy However, Palace will have to make some decisions on where to play their strongest side. 14th they are home to City, 18th, UEF Conference league to a weak side, 20th away to Leeds which are looking tough at home, then us. Their XI against Leeds will tell us who they might field against us in the league cup. I want us to go for this cup badly. The final is 3 months, gives the team an opportunity to lift a trophy and whet the apetite. Some very tough teams are still in it. Chelsea, Newcastle and City. Chelsea are home to Fulham on the 13th and have their game at Cardiff on the 16th. Dicey, Newcastle have their biggest game, away to Sunderland NE derby on the 14th then home to Fulham league cup on the 17th, again, dicey, City away to Palace, on the 14th, then home to Brenford on the 17th for the league cup.
Theres a reason Rice cost what he cost, and why Pool badly wanted Zubimendi. But we need to give Rice a rest and get Noooooooooorgaard match time.
Then why buy him? Were our scouts really that unclear about his capabilities?? The whole thing with Norgaard’s lack of PT is strange IMO . Maybe injury shortages will force their hand, and he will rise to the occasion?