Are Saudis waging an oil-price war on Iran?

Discussion in 'International News' started by Iranian Monitor, Jan 23, 2007.

  1. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    The Saudis have taken a series of hostile acts against Iran in recent weeks. They need to be delivered a stern message. IMO, Iran has been all too timid when dealing with Saudi provocations.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16772560/
    I did find the following items in this report intriguing, especially the part about Iran being the 2nd largest importer of oil in the world only after the United States.

     
  2. weasel

    weasel Member

    Oct 31, 2000
    NYC
    pfffffftt :rolleyes:

    What exactly is Iran prepared to do, especially with the US ready to defend SA?

    Lower prices and hurting Iran? Sounds like a win-win. Now if we can just sabotage Iranian refineries we're really in business.
     
  3. BenReilly

    BenReilly New Member

    Apr 8, 2002
    The Saudis are afraid that Americans will start to seriously conserve energy. While they may be trying to harm Iran's economy, I think their long term strategy is to make sure oil prices don't get too high. They're a lot more sophisticated than they were in the 70s.

    As for Iran being too "timid," HAHA, that doesn't seem to be a problem!
     
  4. SgtSchultz

    SgtSchultz Member

    Jul 11, 2001
    Parts Unknown
    The almighty Iranians are learning what it means to play hardball. You can only talk so long before others start listening and believing in your rhetoric. Iran is going to wake up with a nasty headache. Its too bad. Their citizens are articulate and intelligent with a great history.

    Ahmadninutjob really must be pissing off the mullahs. All his globetrotting has not improved the plight of the average Iranian.

    The Iranians view themselves as the mighty power in the ME. Saudia Arabia is basically telling Iran; Do you really want to go down that road?

    The sad part is I think Iranians are much more rational and would be a better partnerfor the US in the ME. Somehow the US and Iran need to get together and figure out a relationship that works.
     
  5. sebakoole

    sebakoole New Member

    Jul 11, 2002
    I think the Saudis are targeting Iran with their decision to not cut production. But this threat is mostly empty:

    They can only increase production by an additional 2 million barrels per day. With global consumption around 85 per day Iranians don't have much to fear from that.
     
  6. Attacking Minded

    Attacking Minded New Member

    Jun 22, 2002
    What would that message be and how would it be delivered?

    Or continue to switch to Canada.

    Agree with this 100%. Iran and the US should generally be allies. How the US ever got on the side of Pakistan and Saudi is ridiculous.
     
  7. GringoTex

    GringoTex Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    1301 miles de Texas
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    And how many Iranians does it take to screw in a light bulb?
     
  8. GringoTex

    GringoTex Member

    Aug 22, 2001
    1301 miles de Texas
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    When raw commodities are at stake, we prefer dictators. Always have.
     
  9. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    The message could be delivered through diplomatic channels using diplomatic language, and the media using language that is more blunt. The sum and substance of the message would be that unless the Saudis cease and desist with their provocations, Iran would begin causing problems for them. That message can initially be backed up by a riot or demonstration in Saudi Arabia's eastern provinces, where the shia are a majority and where most of the kingdom's oil facilities are also found. More blunt tools can be considered down the line if the Saudis don't heed the message.


    2 thumbs up to that message. But you will need to make sure that message is heard by policymakers and politicians in Washington. Otherwise, folks like Bush will continue walking around hand in hand with the Saudi royals, while plotting to bring misery to Iran.

    Iran will rightly insist to speak its mind about things, to help those fighting injustice when it can and when such help serves its interests, and to be right and wrong about how it answers the socio, political, economic and other challeges it faces. But Iran has no interest nor intention to invade, occupy, or force its ways on anyone else. To the extent Iran's empire will be resurrected, it will be resurrected, not by force of arms, but by force of example, by people in the region who find the example pertinent and worthwhile.

    If America can live with what I have said, it will find in Iran a good friend. I have no doubt about it. But if America imagines that Iran will be an 'ally' that will allow itself to be painted as some second class citizen of the world, that it will in the meantime parrot what is politically correct in the US, and one that will accept the US as its 'leader', then Iran and the US cannot be allies. That, in a nutshell, is what the fight is all about.
     
  10. yasik19

    yasik19 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Chelsea
    Ukraine
    Oct 21, 2004
    Daly City
    I honestly don't see how Iran and US can become great allies w/out Iran changing its rhetoric towards Israel. I hate to bring that up, but the simple fact remains the same. Let Israelis and Palestinians handle their own issues, stop funding terrorists groups and just mind your own business (that last part goes for both Iran and US), then I don't see a reason why Iran and US can't become allies. Iran thinks that it needs a nuclear weapon to call itself a great power in the ME. Well, if Iran just ignores the fact that Israel has a nuke, becomes friends with US, then it won't need to worry about any nuclear weapons and will become a great power through economic and diplomatic means. When Israelis and Palestinians, on their own, can solve their problems, without anyone else's advice or roadmaps or anything of that sort, then US and Iran will have a better opportunity to become allies.

    It can definitely happen.

    As for oil prices, well, once again, if Iran and US would become allies, then that problem would sort itself out. i don't see how Iran benefits from not being an ally of US. Just b/c a country is an ally of another country, it doesn't necessarily mean that one country controls the other and that country can be as independent as it wants to be. No shame in that.
     
  11. Attacking Minded

    Attacking Minded New Member

    Jun 22, 2002
    I think the world has lost something when instigating a riot in another country is not automatically considered an act of war.

    Like what?
     
  12. valanjak

    valanjak BigSoccer Supporter

    Jun 14, 2005
    Perspolis
    there is defiantly shame in that , a country shouldnt depend on others . A country should be able to take carre of itself without selling her rights to super powers. that’s like being a whore , giving favors for money .
     

  13. 5.


    1 to screw in the lightbulb, 2 Mullahs to indict him as American spy, one to execute him and one to go down on the executor.
     
  14. Scarecrow

    Scarecrow Red Card

    Feb 13, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    First off the Saudis will do what is best for them. Second, they aren't afraid of empty threats from iran. Why should they be? They have the US there to handle their light work for them.

    The Saudis are waging their oil price war because it benefits their interests here in the US. And as long as they keep us happy, they know that we will protect them as needed.
     
  15. sahbekham_pactwinner

    Jun 12, 2005
    I have seen a documentary.........made by Michael moore perhaps..........
    where it goes along the lines that "the Saudis have invested in USA more than any country in the world". Can sombody true that?

    And yes Saudis are not that dumb.
     
  16. yasik19

    yasik19 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Chelsea
    Ukraine
    Oct 21, 2004
    Daly City
    I didn't say Iran would depend on US, I said it will have US as a friend and an ally.
     
  17. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    LOL.

    That is why I made money on oil market since last year, and everyone laught on me at "lacking" of economic sense. :p

    Saudi and USA relationship took a big hit after 911. The worst time was at 2005 when Rice met with Saudi King (Crown Prince at time) and failed to work out the difference. Rice called for democracy in Saudi at Cairo University speech, and Saudi pulled all the money out of USA.

    There are two sticking points--

    1) Congress stops to investigate the financial support Saudi Royals give to Uncle Bin. They will not support him anymore, but USA needs to "forgive" the support in the past.

    2) Stop exporting democracy and freedom into Saudi Arabia.

    Looks Shia dominance in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestain are able to bring two parties together.

    About crude oil price, at $10, everyone except Saudi will live under the water. At $20, many countries will barely have the noise above water to breath. USA already tried that one back in 1990s and hoped to take over Russia's major energy assets after an IMF-advised economic reform bankrupted Russia. Three events made that attempt failed:

    1) Putin-led collections of KGB and Russian Mofia able to take over those energy assets with the money generated by illegal weapon exports, drug trafficking and prostitutions.

    2) Chavez came to power in Venesuala and was able to push the price up with his work in OPEC (why we hate him so much? :p )

    3) China begun to take off and help to counter the control.

    How this time work? Well, the low price is not just hurt Iran, Venesula and Russia, it will hurt others such as Canada and Khazakstan. Of course, the mighty power out of Saudi Arabia on oil production and USA on speculation capital can push the price down at certain amount with certain time period, but it is more used as a "heat" tactic. We need to see what oil at $50 changes the current situation before it goes for $40, $30, or even $20.

    But what Iran will react on this? It may make them behave like North Korea under same kind of economic war and give them more excuses on nuclear energy. What Russia will do to counter this move so their own little war with EU can keep going on?

    Or what China will do in this case to make sure USA is tieing its both hands in Mid East so don't have apetite and free hand to stir things up in Far East at 2007 and 2008?
     
  18. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    NO MORE.

    Saudi pulled off a lot of money from USA after the talk broke in 2005. It was around $300-400B range. USA had to fill the void by passing HIA (Homeland Investment Act) law that only tax US companies 7% (instead of 35%) to bring oversea profits back.

    Also if you remebered that UAE odessy about Port Security, basically most of petrodollar is not coming back USA. The only exception is that those money swept the UK and some of them came to USA as money from UK.

    Right now, a LOT of Saudi money is in Sudan to make it a 2nd financial captial after Dubai. You will hear calling for military intervention about Dafur if those money needed here. :p
     
  19. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Tehran Iran
    I recall Olmert first calling for an anti-Iran coalition that would include so-called "moderate" (euphemism for something else) sunni Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt etc. That call came at the heels of Israel's failure in the war against Hezbollah, and following evidence that many of the leaders of these states (despite their people's wishes) were rooting for Israel and against Hezbollah in that war! Blair took up that call later in a speech he gave, which also called for the formation of such an alliance. Certainly, the US would not mind such an alliance since it would bring under one roof its motly crew of patrons, clients, and puppets.

    The areas of 'common cooperation' in this anti-Iran alliance are as follows: working to undermine and weaken Hezbollah in Lebanon, while strengthening the minority regime in power in that country; working to either co-opt Hamas and bring back under the sunni Arab fold and away from Iran, or failing that, to undermine Hamas in the Palestinian territories by butressing the Fatah movement (giving them money, arms, and international support), or doing both at the same time; working to fight shia groups in Iraq while covertly strengthening the "moderate" sunni groups in that country. Finally, this strategy requires that the Saudis use up their unearned money in many of these endeavors, while trying to manipulate international oil markets to further these policies.

    I am disappointed in Iran's timid response to this open conspiracy against it. While Iran is politically in a weakened state the past few weeks, both as a result of the illness of Khamenie as well as the rise in prominence and influence of Rafsanjani, the political squirmishes between various 'factions' and groups in Iran is giving Iran's enemies the ammunition they need to better advance their devious agendas. Sad.

    Iran was clearly winning its match against the US/Israel. It still in the lead, but while there isn't much time for the latter to equalize much less defeat Iran, the Iranian team has been close to scoring some own goals. It certainly has had a man ejected and is playing one man down, with the other side putting its goal under a lot of pressure in these dying minutes...
     
  20. Hank Rearden

    Hank Rearden New Member

    Jul 9, 1999
    Dundee, Illinois, USA
    I don't know if you're serious, but I hope you understand that the US government does not own significant energy exploration assets (nor has it acquired them in recent times). I won't even address the other amazing speculation made in your post.
     
  21. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    You're right. US government never use any power, like military invasion or CIA-coup to give Big Oil the energy assets.
     
  22. Rostam

    Rostam Member

    Dec 11, 2005
    The Saudis(the royal family that runs the country) have neither the brain power nor the muscle to do anything on their own. So, it becomes clear what the purpose of Cheney's recent visit to SA was. The Bush admin and the Saudis are trying to replicate the same thing that they did to USSR, droping the oil prices to topple the economy. But there is a huge difference here. Iran has a cap for oil prices in its calculating the national budget, currently set around mid 20's (not sure about the exact figure) and that's 30 dollars below the lowest price of oil in more than 2 years, that should tell you how difficult it is to hurt Iran by those accounts; it may hurt Iran's saving plans but not the current expenditures. Secondly, Iran has a good reserve of cash that she can tap into if needed, so how long can the Saudis maintain over-pumping before they break their own back.
     
  23. Rostam

    Rostam Member

    Dec 11, 2005
    Two main reasons for that:

    - First and foremost, it has to do with the economics of scale. Saudi capacity is over 11 MBPD, while Iran can only pump out 4 MBPD.

    - Secondly, foreign investment in their oil industry has been huge while Iran was at war with Iraq, and the hidden war that US/Israel has waged on Iran limits foreign investments.
     
  24. 352klr

    352klr Member

    Jan 29, 2001
    The Burgh of Edin
    I don't know about the Saudis but the US definitely is not attempting to decrease the price of oil. See last weeks announcement that they plan to double the SPR and how it bounced oil back off of $50 (along with a little help from weather and some short covering).
     
  25. sebakoole

    sebakoole New Member

    Jul 11, 2002
    So much for the Saudi claims of no need for production cuts. Link.

     

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